Welch's/Circle K Championship

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Stanley

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Course: Randolph North Golf Course, Tucson, Arizona
Yardage: 6222
Par: 72 (four par-fives)
USGA Rating: 72.5
Greens: Bentgrass - 4,000 sq.ft (Tour average: 6,000 sq.ft)

GCSAA Tournament Fact Sheet

Weather Forecast

Best Players Last 10 Years

Past Winners:
2001 - Annika Sorenstam
2000 - Annika Sorenstam
1999 - Juli Inkster
1998 - Helen Alfredsson
1997 - Donna Andrews
1996 - Liselotte Neumann
1995 - Dottie Pepper
1994 - Donna Andrews
1993 - Meg Mallon
1992 - Brandie Burton
 
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Stanley

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Outright plays:

Lorie Kane to win 16/1 e.w. @ Surrey or NetBetSports
Sticking with two of last week's selections and siding with form players rather than those with great course form. A playoff loss to Sorenstam and a top-5 position wrecked by a double-bogey at the last hole is her impressive record for the year. She has finished in the top-10 in two of her three starts here and is in good enough form to be a genuine title contender this week. Side-stepping the 22/1 available at Stan James as they are only offering 4 places on this event.

Mi Hyun Kim to win 25/1 e.w. @ NetBetSports
Also avoiding the higher odds at Stan James for the security of extra places with Kim. I didn't expect to see the same odds as last week on these two selections after their high finishes so will gladly take them again. Course form not too impressive, but on both occasions it was her first event on the mainland - last week's event was also played in Arizona - and she had not played particularly well in her previous event. After a top-3 finish last week, she should have her best tournament at this course.

Rosie Jones to win 40/1 e.w. @ Stan James
Very strange price from Stan James on Jones - double the odds generally available elsewhere. True, she has played poorly on this course since finishing 6th in 1998, but in 1999 and 2001 this was her season-opening event and she was bound to be rusty and in 2000 she had missed her last two cuts. To record three rounds under par and finish 41st was an improvement! This time she opened her season in last week's event and would have secured a top-5 position but for some late bogeys. With the cobwebs now blown off her game, she should perform much better than a 40/1 shot. BTW these prices are not expected to last very long. Se Ri Pak has withdrawn from the events and these books have yet to change their markets in accordance ;)
 
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Ian

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Well we're all planning a litle coup on Lorena Ochoa - the much touted Mexican Amateur - played here last year and finished 7th - Bet365 go a conservative 50/1, Ladbrokes and Surrey 66/1 , William Hill 125/1, Centrebet 140/1, Stan James 200/1:eek: - I would expect that the latter price has gone
 
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Clive

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Hi Cymru

You bet!! That's why my average stake on LPGA and Seniors is 4X USPGA and Euro. Paid for my honeymoon last week!!! Would have been Bognor otherwise!

The reason is simple, we know more than the bookies (you!) for a change. For instance, Stan James obviously were unaware that Ochoa has won NINE events in a row in college and amateur golf, and that she played here on a sponser exemption and finished top ten last year. Nor were they aware that the third fav was injured and unlikely to play.

Imagine what would happen if Garcia was injured and likely to withdraw at TPC...odds would be adjusted before they were posted, only Bet 365 seem to be aware of this...but WE knew!

The form on the PGA Tour is well and truely exposed...all the bookies and punters know what's what, so it's less profitable than it was four or five years ago. What is pleasing is that firms like Hills are making an effort to become involved...long may it continue.

Length was certainly the key here last year, and despite the fact that Tschetter managed a top ten with the burden of my support last week, Stan James laid 100/1 yesterday, Ladbrokes 80 with fifth place. A vastly under-rated player.


Early days, but Grace Park has made big strides up the driving accuracy stats without losing her length. She finally looks ready to fulfill her pootential. Surrey went 50 yesterday, but that didn't last long...Ladbrokes were 50 earlier today.

Cristie Kerr has to be included in the staking plan this week at 66/1 with Ladbrokes and Hills (no fifth place) - positive signs so far this year that the next Dottie Pepper is ready to step forward!!

Couldn't put anyone off Fukushima either
 
DOGS THAT BARK

DOGS THAT BARK

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Now that the Bush Masters have set CC straight,this novice Bush underling will try a few place only wagers @ SIA for 1 unit each.:D

Robbins,Redman and Kerr all 16.5/1
Ellis 20/1

Tossed out my fav Diaz with paltry 7/1 odds
 
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Stanley

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Final update:

Outrights: 0-3; -3.00 units

Kane 23rd
Kim 36th
Jones 12th

All three had chances to finish in the top-5. Kim was 2nd after round 1 and 4th after round 3; Kane was 15th after round 3 and Jones was 7th after round 3 and would have secured a place win had she birdied the par-5 last hole. She double-bogeyed it :rolleyes:

LPGA Tour ytd
Matchups: 2-2; +0.80 units
Outrights: 2-6; -2.47 units
 
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Clive

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what a week to abandon the fifth place at Stan James.....

Nothing worse than finding a completely unexposed player who then goes and shouts her name from the rooftops without a profit..

Park's charge into a place finish was a bit of a mixed blessing as it deprived Ochoa of a share of fourth...oh well
 
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