Welch's/Fry Championship

[Stanley]

Outright play (0.75 units):

Lorena Ochoa to win 22/1 e.w. @ Centrebet
Going early on one price. Ochoa is overpriced at these odds and I can't see it being bettered this week. Glittering amateur career, including eight consecutive NCAA titles, and poised to join Sorenstam, Pak and Webb at the top of ladies golf this year. She has had two top-10 finishes in Australian events this year, so rustiness should not be a concern, and has been a sponsor's invite for the last two years here, finishing in the top-10 both times, so lack of course knowledge will not be a concern. Will take 22/1 now because I doubt we will see those odds on her many times again this season.

 

[Clive]

They're back...........!!

Ochoa 20/1 - simply the best!
Inkster 28/1 - rarely out of top ten
Park 30/1 - 3rd & 6th here last two years
Kerr 66/1 - too big a price

 

[Clive]

And if you don't fancy Ochoa this week, perhaps you'd like to accomodate me on Betfair!!??

 

[milpalm]

Grace Park is 45/1 with 5Dimes. No place odds yet though.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Shhhhhhh! not too loud Milpalm!

 

[Stanley]

They have confirmed that they will be up tonight, Milpalm.

Adding (0.75 units):

Juli Inkster to win 28/1 e.w. @ Bet365 and Stan James
Inkster has a fabulous history in this event. Apart from winning the title in 1999, she has finished in the top-3 in three of the last four years, in the top-10 in all of the last four years and in six of the last nine. She did lose her form a little towards the end of last year, but that was after she had won the U.S. Women's Open. Too good a player, particularly on this course, to be at these odds.

Mi Hyun Kim to win 33/1 e.w. @ SkyBet
These are large odds for a player who is generally 20/1 elsewhere. Presumably it is based on her indifferent form in this event, but was in 4th place going into the final round last year. She was a two-time winner on Tour last year and 3rd only behind Annika Sorenstam and Se Ri Pak in the number of rounds in the 60s. She has been working hard over the break with her new Honma clubs and they are reportedly giving her the extra length off the tee that she needs to compete on a wider range of courses. With the help of the new Titleist Pro-V1 ball as well, she should be even more competitive than last year.

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (0.75 units):

Juli Inkster to beat Laura Diaz -110 @ SkyBet
Really expecting another strong performance from Inkster on this course, so will side with in the matchups as well. Diaz can also boast impressive form at Randolph North - she has finished 2nd and 1st in the last two years - but the pressure of being defending champion is exaggerated as this is first event of the year. Plus, she finished in 39th and 35th positions in her two starts in Australia this season so her form is obviously a concern.

Juli Inkster to beat Rachel Teske -118 @ Expekt
Teske was much more impressive in her homeland events - she secured three top-10 finishes - and she should be better prepared than most for this LPGA Tour season-opening event. But her form at Randolph North is dire. In four visits, her best finish is 34th and she has finished lower than the leaderboard in every subsequent visit. Could be a better finish this year, but not ahead of a course specialist.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Will opt out of normal place wager with A.S. out of this event and play an E/W of Grace Park 45/1 @ 5dimes for 1 unit total.
Can't remember last time she went off these odds.8 top 5's in 28 events last year has break even places odds/event at 3.5,well under the 9/1 here.

 

[lostinamerica]

It's Ochoa, Inkster and Park in this one from those in the know. That seems good and right by me.

Ochoa(18/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ 5dimes
Inkster(22/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ 5dimes
Park(45/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ 5dimes

GL

 

[Stanley]

Mid-point update:

Inkster/Diaz WON by 8
Inkster/Teske Leads by 7

Ochoa 26th
Inkster 8th
Kim 56th

Decent position at the cut largely due to Inkster. Looked like she might shoot 59 at one stage yesterday, but at least it brought in contention for a win and Ochoa could yet reach a top-4 position. Not a bad situation considering I hadn't researched this event properly ... I missed the fact that they were playing a different course at Randolph North this year!

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Final
Outright
G Park tied 4th @ 9/1
Week +4 units ytd +3units

 

[Stanley]

Final update:

Matchups: 2-0-0; +1.50 units

Inkster/Teske WON by 10

Outrights: 0-3; -2.25 units

Ochoa 16th
Inkster 11th
Kim 16th

Small loss on the event, though generally satisfactory. The two matchups were easy wins and the three outrights were all well-placed, but not quite high enough!