Wells Fargo
- Thread starter ormond80
- Start date
Outrights
Outrights
ODDS TO WIN WELLS FARGO CHAMPIONSHIP 2015 PHIL MICKELSON +2150
ODDS TO WIN WELLS FARGO CHAMPIONSHIP 2015 KEVIN KISNER +3500
ODDS TO WIN WELLS FARGO CHAMPIONSHIP 2015 RYAN MOORE +4050
ODDS TO WIN WELLS FARGO CHAMPIONSHIP 2015 DANIEL BERGER +4550
I hate betting Phil but he likes it here...Damnit
Outrights
ODDS TO WIN WELLS FARGO CHAMPIONSHIP 2015 PHIL MICKELSON +2150
ODDS TO WIN WELLS FARGO CHAMPIONSHIP 2015 KEVIN KISNER +3500
ODDS TO WIN WELLS FARGO CHAMPIONSHIP 2015 RYAN MOORE +4050
ODDS TO WIN WELLS FARGO CHAMPIONSHIP 2015 DANIEL BERGER +4550
I hate betting Phil but he likes it here...Damnit
Round 1 plays (4pts unless stated):
K.J. Choi to beat Padraig Harrington +110 @ Paddy Power
Harrington did win the Honda Classic in March, but in his five subsequent events, he has finished mc-49th-67th-mc-42nd, so there is no indication that he will be competitive this week. Choi's form in his last five events is better - 15th-50th-mc-36th-42nd - and he is more consistent, making the cut in 9 of 12 events this season. That's enough to indicate that he shouldn't be the underdog in this matchup despite the Honda result.
Jason Kokrak to beat Daniel Berger +105 @ SkyBet [2pts]
Two in-form players, but moreso Kokrak than Berger: since the Valspar Championship, Kokrak has four top-20 finishes in six starts, Berger has two in seven starts. In terms of their h2h record, Kokrak leads Berger 4-1-1 over that period. With course experience as well - he was inside the top-10 in each of the first three rounds in 2013 and finished in the top-25 last year - Kokrak holds a clear advantage over his course rookie opponent.
K.J. Choi to beat Padraig Harrington +110 @ Paddy Power
Harrington did win the Honda Classic in March, but in his five subsequent events, he has finished mc-49th-67th-mc-42nd, so there is no indication that he will be competitive this week. Choi's form in his last five events is better - 15th-50th-mc-36th-42nd - and he is more consistent, making the cut in 9 of 12 events this season. That's enough to indicate that he shouldn't be the underdog in this matchup despite the Honda result.
Jason Kokrak to beat Daniel Berger +105 @ SkyBet [2pts]
Two in-form players, but moreso Kokrak than Berger: since the Valspar Championship, Kokrak has four top-20 finishes in six starts, Berger has two in seven starts. In terms of their h2h record, Kokrak leads Berger 4-1-1 over that period. With course experience as well - he was inside the top-10 in each of the first three rounds in 2013 and finished in the top-25 last year - Kokrak holds a clear advantage over his course rookie opponent.
Outrights:
Phil Mickelson(22/1) e.w.
Hideki Matsuyama(22/1) e.w.
Bill Haas(28/1) e.w.
Ryan Moore(40/1) e.w.
Lucas Glover(125/1) e.w.
Jonathan Byrd(200/1) e.w.
D.A. Points(200/1) e.w.
Angel Cabrera(200/1) e.w.
GL
Phil Mickelson(22/1) e.w.
Hideki Matsuyama(22/1) e.w.
Bill Haas(28/1) e.w.
Ryan Moore(40/1) e.w.
Lucas Glover(125/1) e.w.
Jonathan Byrd(200/1) e.w.
D.A. Points(200/1) e.w.
Angel Cabrera(200/1) e.w.
GL
Round 2 plays (4pts):
Hunter Mahan to beat Robert Streb -105 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes]
Streb did win the 2014 McGladrey Classic, but that was from off the pace - he was 5 shots back and in 12th place at the start of the final round - and he has no other experience of leading a PGA Tour event after any round. He has been 1st after rd1 twice on the Web.com Tour, but fell from the lead in rd2 on both occasions, so I don't expect to fare any better on the PGA Tour. Mahan is a player who is far more consistent - he missed his first cut last week since July - so he should be the perfect player to oppose an inexperienced tournament leader.
Phil Mickelson to beat Louis Oosthuizen -150 @ Paddy Power
Making his course debut, Oosthuizen shot 76 and is now in 134th place, Will be bounce back today? The evidence suggests not. This will be the 12th time that he has started rd2 outside the top-100 on the PGA Tour and he has made the just cut once from this position previously (2012 Transitions Championship) and that was the only occasion when he shot a sub-70 round in rd2 and only the second occasion when he has broken par in rd2 from this position. All aspects of his game were very poor yesterday, so he deserves to be a large underdog against a player with such a good record on this course.
Bill Haas to beat Louis Oosthuizen -130 @ The Greek [also available @ 5Dimes, Pinnacle and Carib]
Also opposing Oosthuizen with Haas who finished the day four shots ahead of Oosthuizen. He is good form with a top-5 finish last week and he also has two top-5 finishes on this course, so he should be capable of beating a struggling Oosthuizen.
[unofficial rd2 system plays: Choi tb Harrington -110; Furyk tb Mickelson +100]
Hunter Mahan to beat Robert Streb -105 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes]
Streb did win the 2014 McGladrey Classic, but that was from off the pace - he was 5 shots back and in 12th place at the start of the final round - and he has no other experience of leading a PGA Tour event after any round. He has been 1st after rd1 twice on the Web.com Tour, but fell from the lead in rd2 on both occasions, so I don't expect to fare any better on the PGA Tour. Mahan is a player who is far more consistent - he missed his first cut last week since July - so he should be the perfect player to oppose an inexperienced tournament leader.
Phil Mickelson to beat Louis Oosthuizen -150 @ Paddy Power
Making his course debut, Oosthuizen shot 76 and is now in 134th place, Will be bounce back today? The evidence suggests not. This will be the 12th time that he has started rd2 outside the top-100 on the PGA Tour and he has made the just cut once from this position previously (2012 Transitions Championship) and that was the only occasion when he shot a sub-70 round in rd2 and only the second occasion when he has broken par in rd2 from this position. All aspects of his game were very poor yesterday, so he deserves to be a large underdog against a player with such a good record on this course.
Bill Haas to beat Louis Oosthuizen -130 @ The Greek [also available @ 5Dimes, Pinnacle and Carib]
Also opposing Oosthuizen with Haas who finished the day four shots ahead of Oosthuizen. He is good form with a top-5 finish last week and he also has two top-5 finishes on this course, so he should be capable of beating a struggling Oosthuizen.
[unofficial rd2 system plays: Choi tb Harrington -110; Furyk tb Mickelson +100]
for round 3:
Basically basing this play off of 1 stat - driving accuracy this week:
Webb Simpson - 82.14%
Robert Streb - 39.29%
Obviously a stark contrast - Streb has recovered from his poor driving by somehow finding a ton of greens and more importantly holing a bunch of putts, but that can only last so long - at some point you are likely to be punished on this course if you don't find fairways - Webb also has the home state advantage in this one as well as the experience edge, so as much as it pains me to say it (as I am normally an ardent fader of him):
Simpson -140 vs Streb
And as always, good luck no matter which golfers you choose
LA Burns
Basically basing this play off of 1 stat - driving accuracy this week:
Webb Simpson - 82.14%
Robert Streb - 39.29%
Obviously a stark contrast - Streb has recovered from his poor driving by somehow finding a ton of greens and more importantly holing a bunch of putts, but that can only last so long - at some point you are likely to be punished on this course if you don't find fairways - Webb also has the home state advantage in this one as well as the experience edge, so as much as it pains me to say it (as I am normally an ardent fader of him):
Simpson -140 vs Streb
And as always, good luck no matter which golfers you choose
LA Burns
Hate to say it Burns but that stat means nothing here. Actually, despite the horrible driving for Streb, he has a higher GIR than Webb. So not much penalties for errant drives in regards to getting to the putting surface.
I don't like Webb (usually fade) and Id never eat that chalk with him, he likes to play 'feel good' rounds with his chums and I don't think Streb fits the bill today.
Not saying at all that Id take Streb at + money as Im passing on that one..
Playing Flores -130 over Thompson.
GL
I don't like Webb (usually fade) and Id never eat that chalk with him, he likes to play 'feel good' rounds with his chums and I don't think Streb fits the bill today.
Not saying at all that Id take Streb at + money as Im passing on that one..
Playing Flores -130 over Thompson.
GL
don't like Webb either and as I mentioned he is on my potential list of fades normally - also stated that Streb hitting a ton of greens (over 80% GIR for the week as opposed to Webb's 72%) but I think that is an anomaly that will revert back to the mean if Streb is off with his driver yet again today -
Streb at 3.235 strokes gained putting for the week which, combined with the driving accuracy, tells me that he is making up for mistakes with his putter and that can only last so long - even if Streb is hitting greens his proximity to hole will definitely be affected if coming out of the rough so I believe that if both players continue with current week's ball striking form Streb better hole a bunch of putts if he wants to keep up
either way, these are just my feelings and opinions and I have been known to be wrong on occasion
gl - burns
Streb at 3.235 strokes gained putting for the week which, combined with the driving accuracy, tells me that he is making up for mistakes with his putter and that can only last so long - even if Streb is hitting greens his proximity to hole will definitely be affected if coming out of the rough so I believe that if both players continue with current week's ball striking form Streb better hole a bunch of putts if he wants to keep up
either way, these are just my feelings and opinions and I have been known to be wrong on occasion
gl - burns
Round 4 plays (4pts);
Geoff Ogilvy to beat Matt Jones +120 @ Paddy Power [available generally]
Backing Ogilvy on this course. In his own words: "Something about the course that I obviously like, like it suits my eye or something" and little wonder given that he is 10-for-10 in top-40 finishes on this course and is currently 14th after rd3. Jones reaches the final round on this course for the first time since 2011 and has made his first cut since March, so doesn't warrant favouritism in this matchup this week, at least.
Geoff Ogilvy to beat Sean O'Hair +116 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]
O'Hair has a mixed bag at Quail Hollow - he won in 2009, but has just one other top-60 finish in his eight previous appearances here. He was eight shots behind Ogilvy when he missed the cut last week and is already behind him this week. On this course, I don't expect Ogilvy to allow O'Hair to catch him today.
Boo Weekley to beat Carlos Ortiz +105 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]
Two players inside the top-10 and I don't see any reason for Ortiz to be the favourite in this matchup. He has been inside the top-10 after 54 holes of a PGA Tour just once previously (2015 Northern Trust Open) and he shot 75 in rd4 on that occasion. Weekley, by contrast, has been in this position eight times on the PGA Tour since 2013 and shot a sub-70 round every time, He holds a 6-3-0 h2h record against Ortiz in 2015 and he shot the lower rd4 score every time this year than they have both played on Sunday. Weekley's experience should see him secure his top-10 position today; Ortiz's history suggests that he is less likely to stay there.
[unofficial rd4 system play: Cink tb Glover -106]
Geoff Ogilvy to beat Matt Jones +120 @ Paddy Power [available generally]
Backing Ogilvy on this course. In his own words: "Something about the course that I obviously like, like it suits my eye or something" and little wonder given that he is 10-for-10 in top-40 finishes on this course and is currently 14th after rd3. Jones reaches the final round on this course for the first time since 2011 and has made his first cut since March, so doesn't warrant favouritism in this matchup this week, at least.
Geoff Ogilvy to beat Sean O'Hair +116 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]
O'Hair has a mixed bag at Quail Hollow - he won in 2009, but has just one other top-60 finish in his eight previous appearances here. He was eight shots behind Ogilvy when he missed the cut last week and is already behind him this week. On this course, I don't expect Ogilvy to allow O'Hair to catch him today.
Boo Weekley to beat Carlos Ortiz +105 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]
Two players inside the top-10 and I don't see any reason for Ortiz to be the favourite in this matchup. He has been inside the top-10 after 54 holes of a PGA Tour just once previously (2015 Northern Trust Open) and he shot 75 in rd4 on that occasion. Weekley, by contrast, has been in this position eight times on the PGA Tour since 2013 and shot a sub-70 round every time, He holds a 6-3-0 h2h record against Ortiz in 2015 and he shot the lower rd4 score every time this year than they have both played on Sunday. Weekley's experience should see him secure his top-10 position today; Ortiz's history suggests that he is less likely to stay there.
[unofficial rd4 system play: Cink tb Glover -106]
4th Round Match Ups
4th Round Match Ups
P PEREZ (RND 4) -115 (J PETERSON (RND 4) vrs P PEREZ (RND 4))
S CINK (RND 4) -115 (L GLOVER (RND 4) vrs S CINK (RND 4))
D BERGER (RND 4) +110 (G WOODLAND (RND 4) vrs D BERGER (RND 4))
4th Round Match Ups
P PEREZ (RND 4) -115 (J PETERSON (RND 4) vrs P PEREZ (RND 4))
S CINK (RND 4) -115 (L GLOVER (RND 4) vrs S CINK (RND 4))
D BERGER (RND 4) +110 (G WOODLAND (RND 4) vrs D BERGER (RND 4))
