Western Open

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1 unit):

Vijay Singh to win 16/1 e.w. @ BlueSq
Going early on a number of players as there may be some adjustment in the odds tomorrow as it appears that Davis Love has withdrawn from the event. First up is Singh who will be looking to join the club of three-time winners in 2003 this week. He has already lifted the Phoenix Open and the Byron Nelson Championship this term and has finished inside the top-20 in 12 of 14 starts this year, including his last eight events. He is in great form, has an excellent course history and competes against a Tiger Woods who looks far from daunting at the moment.

Mike Weir to win 16/1 e.w. @ William Hill
Weir is one of those players who has won three times this year and had he played more times, he could have added to his total. He has played very little since winning the Masters - just three events in the last eleven weeks as he has been preparing specifically for the majors as well as being involved in a lot of off-course duties. This is his sole targeted event between the U.S. Open where he was 3rd and the British Open, so focus should not be an issue. He has also been working with his coach, Mike Wilson, in the last couple of weeks and he has clearly become a very focussed and very consistent player. He has finished in the top-3 twice in the last four years here and he should not be too far away this time. SIA also offer the same odds, but just a four-place option.

Justin Leonard to win 40/1 e.w. @ William Hill
Leonard has also become a much more consistent player since working with Butch Harmon on swing changes. He has only won once this year (Honda Classic), but was 2nd in the Colonial a month ago and has finished in the top-20 in each of his last four events, with two of them being in the top-10. He similarly has a good record in this event with successive top-10 finishes to 1998, top-20 finishes in his next two visits and then only last year did he fail to be in contention at the weekend. These look high odds for a player who has a good record of winning PGA Tour events each year. As with the Weir play, SIA also offer the same odds, but just a four-place option.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

one early 72 hole @ Sportingbet (ties lose)
Maru +100 over Stricker

I believe SB is putting way to much emphasis on Strikers course form as is current form is bad. After starting with a top 20 in years opening event he has missed cut in 9 of next 13 with top placing of 42.
Maru finally seems healthy again(shoulder) and course form not bad with a 3rd in 2 events here last five.

 

[milpalm]

Weir (19/1, Nordic) and Estes (39/1, Nordic) for me. Both players have a couple of high finishes here and have shown some form recently.

 

[LARGE222]

a great field here stats have favored greens in regulation men again along with
players both long and accurate off the tee.
like two plays here

campbell +06 over mickleson 1 unit
driving stats and gir stats are greatly favor campbell.
i woirry about mick getting the ball up and down every hole but
i will take my chances. plus you are getting the name <juice>
that goes with mick

furyk-5 over toms 1 unit
two real close on stats but the toms gir stat is a little skewered by the great
week last week. plus i like going with a player of furyks qualoty
against a guy after a win.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

adding another 72 hole @ sportingbet (ties lose)
Verplank -111 over Sluman
Don't understand this line. I know Sluman is Chi native but has failed to post top 25 here in last 5 years,Verplank has played 4 of last 5 years here and has 3 top 15's--in addition has much better cut ratio with one cut in 14 events vs 4 in 17 for Sluman including last 2events. We got the better player-better stats-better cut ratio and at pick em. I'll bite.

Large, I too will fade Mick if given opp but will wait a tad for some juicier odds. Was watching a par 3 event last night with Mick-Couples-Trevino and Zoelner and am thinking it was recent as they made note of Fuzzy's play in open. Anyway, Mick was hitting some laser irons on the par 3's and was most impressive---but the driver has been his killer. Hope the oddsmakers were watching

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1 unit unless stated):

Robert Gamez to beat Matt Kuchar -125 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds [2 units]
Last week, I wrote "They have played in 12 common events this year and Gamez has finished ahead of Kuchar on every occasion! In this form, this shouldn't be unlucky thirteen." Well, it was. But I will still play the same matchup at the same odds. This is the scene of Kuchar's 1997 victory in the U.S. Amateur Championship, but Gamez is still the better player and has been coming here for over a decade.

Tim Herron to beat Scott McCarron -137 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
McCarron made his first cut in six events last week, but still finished behind Herron. Lumpy is in much better form and has a more impressive course history. Not such good odds, but a tempting matchup.

Justin Leonard to beat Peter Lonard -152 @ Easybets
And this is even more so! Leonard has yet to be beaten by Lonard in the past three months and while Lonard did finish 5th last year, he was in the middle of a rich vein of form that he has not reproduced this year. Will side with the outright selection again.

Mike Weir to beat Phil Mickelson -143 @ Easybets
Will also side with another of the outright selections in the matchup of the lefties. Weir has been winning this matchup with ease this year and should reinforce his position as #1 Lefty this week. Mickelson has played this course eight times with a best finish of 26th and has not had a top-10 finish in his last six starts. Quite a contrast in form to Weir who certainly justifies the price.

 

[sports student]

72 holes - ties lose

Maruyama even over Stricker
Triplett -111 over Howell
Verplank-111 over Sluman
Lonard -120 over Kelly
Herron-110 over Jobe
Furyk -110 over Toms

top 3 at Sportingbet, next 3 at bet365. Maruyama has changed to -111 now, got it earlier today (thanks DTB) Am new at using the British books-almost found out too late that a 3 man parlay is an accumulator and not a trixie Good luck all.

Stan your site upgrade is great

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

adding 72 holes
Campbell +120 over Mick @ $plays
Leonard +110 over Mick @ Boyles (ties lose)

Micks form is as bad as its been in many years and when he was firing had little success here going 42-cut-35 last 3.

Have not had chance to look at outrights yet as been looking at the bush outrights in detail and expect much more opps there this week but longshots at Western open have faired well despite steller fields in past.

 

[Stanley]

Adding (1 unit):

Chad Campbell to beat Steve Flesch -111 @ Ladbrokes
Big difference in consistency between these two. Campbell has made 15 of 17 cuts this year, whereas Flesch has made only 10 of 19 and only two of his last five since winning the HP Classic of New Orleans. Campbell also won the US Open qualifier at Kirtland last month and finished ahead of Flesch in three of their last four common events, so there is no concern over his current form and he looks set for another weekend of golf.

 

[crookycymru]

Finding myself watching more and more golf these days, so hope you dont mind be adding my input over the coming months.

Lonard to beat Riley at 10/11 with William Hill (2 Units)

Weir to beat Singh at 10/11 with Willaim Hill (1 Unit)

Good Luck

 

[orient]

72 holes:
Chad Campbell to beat Hank Kuehne -154 Nordicbet [1.5units]

 

[lostinamerica]

OUTRIGHTS for 0.60* e.w.:

Ben Crane(95/1) @ 5 dimes
Justin Leonard(30/1) @ 5 dimes
Jeff Sluman(80/1) @ 5 dimes and some (66/1) @ Bet365
Scott Verplank(40/1) @ 5 dimes
Mike Weir(15/1) @ 5 dimes and some (12/1) @ Bet365


Plays are listed alphabetical as there is not much variance in my degree of strongly liking one versus another this week, which is not the norm. Time has run out for adding thoughts and comments on how or why these guys look to be on task or why the spot or venue may suit, and why they barely got the nod over Chad Campbell(66/1).

MATCHUPS, GROUPS and 3 BALLS:

Crane(-115) over Austin (Tournament) for 1* @ Bet365

Faxon(+350) over Triplett/Appleby/Jobe/Herron (Tournament) for 0.60* @ Bet365

Sluman(+150) over Riley/Pernice (Thursday) for 1* @ Bet365

GL

 

[Stanley]

2nd round plays (1 unit unless stated):

Vijay Singh +.5 to beat David Toms -150 @ WSEX [3 units]
Mike Weir to beat David Toms -133 @ Five Dimes
J.J. Henry to beat Cliff Kresge -112 @ Five Dimes

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

at the cut 2-0
Maru/Stricker win
Verplank/Sluman win
Pending
both Cambell and Leonard trail Mick by 1

Have watched little yet of this touney hence no per rd plays. Been watching the bush in the open. Will try to observe some tomorrow.

 

[Stanley]

2nd round update: 0-3-0; -6.95 units

Singh/Toms LOST by 0.5
Weir/Toms LOST by 1
Henry/Kresge LOST by 5

Mid-point update:

Gamez/Kuchar LOST by 5
Herron/McCarron LOST by 8
Leonard/Lonard All Square
Weir/Mickelson Leads by 2
Campbell/Flesch Leads by 2

Singh 36th
Weir 6th
Leonard 22nd

Ugly event so far and lost a lot on Singh who only hit eight greens in regulation all day. Will need Weir to have a great weekend if this event is to be turned around.

3rd round plays (1 unit):

Bob Estes to beat Peter Lonard -110 @ Sirbet
Peter Lonard to beat Steve Flesch -122 @ Five Dimes
Vijay Singh to beat Phil Mickelson -125 @ Sirbet

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

I'll take a shot at some third round action.....

Weir over Furyk +105
Estes over Lonard +105
Campbell over Howell +105 $$plays

GL

 

[sports student]

update on 72 hole matchups

Triplett up 1/2 over Howell
Lonard down 2 1/2 vs Kelly
Furyk down 3 1/2 vs Toms
other 3 matchups all winners at the cut

3rd round

Lehman -123 over Waldorf (5 dimes)
Lonard +125 over Beem/Armour
Leonard -110 over Day/Smith
Triplett +125 over Donald/Gore
C Campbell +125 over Mayfair/Byrum

last 4 all at bet365

GOOD LUCK

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

3rd rd
Estes +105 over Lonard @ $plays
Was going to wait to view today and play 4th rd but will look at this one as we have a much better player at + odds.
In addition Estes ranks 7th in 3rd rd scor ave vs Lonard at 172 giving Estes over a 2 stroke edge in 3rd rd.

 

[lostinamerica]

3 BALLS:

Weir(+120) over Furyk/Slocum
Good and gooder.

GL

 

[Another Steve]

3RD Round Play

3RD Round Play

Chad Campbell OV/Charles Howell-1.15

Like young Chad against young Charles. Chad has been strong all year, Charles has been a little wild. Chad gets it done.