couple early ones @ Sportingbet>72 holes (ties lose)
Toms -125 over Mick
N Price -125 over M Campbell
Toms -125 over Mick
N Price -125 over M Campbell
WGC American Express Championship
- Thread starter DOGS THAT BARK
- Start date
outright to placetop 5 @ Skybet
Nick Price 16/1
Made unofficial wager on him last week in euro event and came up a bit short--but coming right back with him this week as five top 5's in 14 events stateside this year I can't pass these odds despite tough field.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
will also take same wager same book on Jerry Kelly 16/1
While not as prolific as Price at top 5's with only 4 in 25 events only a handful on tour can boast more top 10's (9) and they are at MUCH shorter odds.
Nick Price 16/1
Made unofficial wager on him last week in euro event and came up a bit short--but coming right back with him this week as five top 5's in 14 events stateside this year I can't pass these odds despite tough field.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
will also take same wager same book on Jerry Kelly 16/1
While not as prolific as Price at top 5's with only 4 in 25 events only a handful on tour can boast more top 10's (9) and they are at MUCH shorter odds.
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Outright plays (1 unit):
Jim Furyk to win 22/1 e.w. @ Totalbet
Returning to a couple of familiar faces in this year's selections. Furyk is now an outsider for the Player of the Year award, but he has still maintained his consistency as the season has begun to wind down. He won once and finished in the top-20 in all four starts in August, while he has now had a four-week break to recharge the batteries. He is in the top-5 in many of the important stat categories and can compete on any course, though it will not harm him that there are only two par-fives.
Davis Love to win 22/1 e.w. @ UKBetting
Given Love's length off the tee, it is surprising that he ranks much lower in the the 'par-five performance' stat - 42nd against 6th. Though he does rank 6th in the more important (for this week, at least) 'par-four performance' stats, in which Furyk is 2nd. Also like Furyk, he has largely rested since the last WGC event (he did play in the John Deere Classic) and should be fresh for the final run-in to the end of the season. Both he and Furyk rank in the top-5 in 'final round scoring average' so unlike last week's reservations about Howell being in contention at the mid-point, both these players should be able to deliver the goods if they get the chance. At this price, you need players who can do that!
Retief Goosen to win 33/1 e.w. @ Bet365, Paddy Power, BlueSq, UKBetting and Totalbet
Larger price, though no less able a player. Goosen is coming off a runners-up spot on the PGA Tour last month (the International) and a win in the Trophee Lancome three weeks ago, so form is not a problem. Nor has it been all season as he currently ranks 7th in scoring average on the PGA Tour (behind Furyk and Love) and he has shown that he can play in Georgia in particular. Since the start of last season, his finishes in Georgia events read: 1st, 2nd, 9th, 3rd, 13th. He should feature again this week.
Jim Furyk to win 22/1 e.w. @ Totalbet
Returning to a couple of familiar faces in this year's selections. Furyk is now an outsider for the Player of the Year award, but he has still maintained his consistency as the season has begun to wind down. He won once and finished in the top-20 in all four starts in August, while he has now had a four-week break to recharge the batteries. He is in the top-5 in many of the important stat categories and can compete on any course, though it will not harm him that there are only two par-fives.
Davis Love to win 22/1 e.w. @ UKBetting
Given Love's length off the tee, it is surprising that he ranks much lower in the the 'par-five performance' stat - 42nd against 6th. Though he does rank 6th in the more important (for this week, at least) 'par-four performance' stats, in which Furyk is 2nd. Also like Furyk, he has largely rested since the last WGC event (he did play in the John Deere Classic) and should be fresh for the final run-in to the end of the season. Both he and Furyk rank in the top-5 in 'final round scoring average' so unlike last week's reservations about Howell being in contention at the mid-point, both these players should be able to deliver the goods if they get the chance. At this price, you need players who can do that!
Retief Goosen to win 33/1 e.w. @ Bet365, Paddy Power, BlueSq, UKBetting and Totalbet
Larger price, though no less able a player. Goosen is coming off a runners-up spot on the PGA Tour last month (the International) and a win in the Trophee Lancome three weeks ago, so form is not a problem. Nor has it been all season as he currently ranks 7th in scoring average on the PGA Tour (behind Furyk and Love) and he has shown that he can play in Georgia in particular. Since the start of last season, his finishes in Georgia events read: 1st, 2nd, 9th, 3rd, 13th. He should feature again this week.
adding a couple 72 holes @ Bet&Win both -111 (ties lose)
Estes over O'malley
Excluding Matchplay O'malley best finish in 2 years (5 events) on U.S. soil is 57th--don't think that will get it here
Mattiace over Romero
Romero only has busted 70 once in 20 rds in states this year(73.45 ave) and Mattiace has beaten him 5 of 7 tourneys in common. I look for more of same.
Estes over O'malley
Excluding Matchplay O'malley best finish in 2 years (5 events) on U.S. soil is 57th--don't think that will get it here
Mattiace over Romero
Romero only has busted 70 once in 20 rds in states this year(73.45 ave) and Mattiace has beaten him 5 of 7 tourneys in common. I look for more of same.
adding
Darren Clarke -120 over Westwood @ Gamebookers
Westwood coming off very emotional win,followed his prior win with a cut few weeks earlier and in MUCHO tougher competition here.
Westwood not much success stateside getting cut 40% of time and no top 25's this year in 5 events--Clarke one cut here in 10 events and 3 top 10's. Don't like biting on these odds but appears to be bargain considering.
Darren Clarke -120 over Westwood @ Gamebookers
Westwood coming off very emotional win,followed his prior win with a cut few weeks earlier and in MUCHO tougher competition here.
Westwood not much success stateside getting cut 40% of time and no top 25's this year in 5 events--Clarke one cut here in 10 events and 3 top 10's. Don't like biting on these odds but appears to be bargain considering.
Matchup plays (1 unit unless stated):
Chad Campbell to beat Sergio Garcia -118 @ Expekt
With a best finish of 19th since the British Open, Garcia is still very opposable particularly with a player I looked at closely for the outright (place-only) market. Campbell also has a healthy 11-4-1 h2h lead over the past 12 months.
Nick Price to beat Michael Campbell -118 @ Expekt [2 units]
Got chewed up and spat out on the European Tour last week, including three matchup plays against Campbell, but on American soil it should be a different matter. Even though he has turned his season around by returning to the European Tour, he still struggled when he made the trip back for the PGA Championship and the NEC Invitational. Price leads him 9-0-0 h2h on the PGA Tour (plus WGC events) in the past year and that's pretty convincing.
(also available at Sportingbet and Sporting Odds)
Adam Scott to beat Michael Campbell -125 @ Intertops [2 units]
Scott has played less on the PGA Tour than Price so only leads Cambo 6-0-0 h2h over the past year in those and WGC events, but he is arguably in better form than Price having won twice in the past two months, including the Deutsche Bank Championship.
(also available at SkyBet)
Darren Clarke to beat Lee Westwood -120 @ William Hill and Easybets [2 units]
Opposing the winner in the following week is standard, particularly when it involves a Transatlantic trip. I do hope the young Englishman will return to the top of the game, but his is still a very long way behind his stable mate who has finished 1st, 9th, 1st, 5th and 4th in his last five starts and the first of those was at the NEC Invitational.
(also available at Intertops)
Bob Estes to beat Peter O'Malley -111 @ BetandWin
Basically opposing O'Malley who has finished in the top-50 just once on American soil in the past five years and that was in a Nationwide Tour event last year. Estes won't win this week, but top-40 should be enough.
Jonathan Kaye to beat Raphael Jacquelin -152 @ William Hill and Easybets [2 units]
Jacquelin has been in good form lately, but he has never played in a WGC event, late alone on American soil until this week. No chance against a player who won on the PGA Tour in June and has finished 2nd and 9th in his last two starts, the first of which was at the NEC Invitational.
Chad Campbell to beat Sergio Garcia -118 @ Expekt
With a best finish of 19th since the British Open, Garcia is still very opposable particularly with a player I looked at closely for the outright (place-only) market. Campbell also has a healthy 11-4-1 h2h lead over the past 12 months.
Nick Price to beat Michael Campbell -118 @ Expekt [2 units]
Got chewed up and spat out on the European Tour last week, including three matchup plays against Campbell, but on American soil it should be a different matter. Even though he has turned his season around by returning to the European Tour, he still struggled when he made the trip back for the PGA Championship and the NEC Invitational. Price leads him 9-0-0 h2h on the PGA Tour (plus WGC events) in the past year and that's pretty convincing.
(also available at Sportingbet and Sporting Odds)
Adam Scott to beat Michael Campbell -125 @ Intertops [2 units]
Scott has played less on the PGA Tour than Price so only leads Cambo 6-0-0 h2h over the past year in those and WGC events, but he is arguably in better form than Price having won twice in the past two months, including the Deutsche Bank Championship.
(also available at SkyBet)
Darren Clarke to beat Lee Westwood -120 @ William Hill and Easybets [2 units]
Opposing the winner in the following week is standard, particularly when it involves a Transatlantic trip. I do hope the young Englishman will return to the top of the game, but his is still a very long way behind his stable mate who has finished 1st, 9th, 1st, 5th and 4th in his last five starts and the first of those was at the NEC Invitational.
(also available at Intertops)
Bob Estes to beat Peter O'Malley -111 @ BetandWin
Basically opposing O'Malley who has finished in the top-50 just once on American soil in the past five years and that was in a Nationwide Tour event last year. Estes won't win this week, but top-40 should be enough.
Jonathan Kaye to beat Raphael Jacquelin -152 @ William Hill and Easybets [2 units]
Jacquelin has been in good form lately, but he has never played in a WGC event, late alone on American soil until this week. No chance against a player who won on the PGA Tour in June and has finished 2nd and 9th in his last two starts, the first of which was at the NEC Invitational.
Adding (1 unit):
Charles Howell to beat Thomas Bjorn -125 @ WSEX
Avoiding Howell with the outright market, but with home cooking and some local knowledge to his advantage, he should have the upper hand over Bjorn who struggled in the PGA Championship and NEC Invitational in August when last on American soil.
Len Mattiace to beat David Howell -107 @ Five Dimes
I can't see Howell as the favourite in this matchup. He may have finished in the top-10 in his last four starts, but he has only played in the U.S. on two occasions (1999 Memorial Tournament and 2002 U.S. Open) and missed the cut both times, shooting 76-79 and 78-81. Mattiace has been steady of late and will need no more for this matchup.
Mike Weir to beat Phil Mickelson -140 @ WSEX
Huge contrast in form between these two with Mickelson having secured just one top-10 since the Masters which Weir won. In that time, Weir has finished in the time in more than half of his starts and is certainly the dominant Lefty on Tour at the moment.
David Toms to beat Lee Westwood -110 @ Stan James
Also opposing Westwood with Toms. Three times Westwood has played in the U.S. in the past two months and three times he has finished behind Toms. Might be a different story in Europe, but not in Georgia.
Charles Howell to beat Thomas Bjorn -125 @ WSEX
Avoiding Howell with the outright market, but with home cooking and some local knowledge to his advantage, he should have the upper hand over Bjorn who struggled in the PGA Championship and NEC Invitational in August when last on American soil.
Len Mattiace to beat David Howell -107 @ Five Dimes
I can't see Howell as the favourite in this matchup. He may have finished in the top-10 in his last four starts, but he has only played in the U.S. on two occasions (1999 Memorial Tournament and 2002 U.S. Open) and missed the cut both times, shooting 76-79 and 78-81. Mattiace has been steady of late and will need no more for this matchup.
Mike Weir to beat Phil Mickelson -140 @ WSEX
Huge contrast in form between these two with Mickelson having secured just one top-10 since the Masters which Weir won. In that time, Weir has finished in the time in more than half of his starts and is certainly the dominant Lefty on Tour at the moment.
David Toms to beat Lee Westwood -110 @ Stan James
Also opposing Westwood with Toms. Three times Westwood has played in the U.S. in the past two months and three times he has finished behind Toms. Might be a different story in Europe, but not in Georgia.
1st rd
Mattiace -113 over Howell
ditto on Stan's view,don't know how I missed the 72 hole(odds now - 120) but will try and scratch out a win on this rd as for some reason 5 dimes still have Howell favored in this rd with adverse t- times
Mattiace -113 over Howell
ditto on Stan's view,don't know how I missed the 72 hole(odds now - 120) but will try and scratch out a win on this rd as for some reason 5 dimes still have Howell favored in this rd with adverse t- times
Dabbling instead of digging:
WGC:
- (1) Chad Campbell(50/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365 (despite the lousy tee time)
- (2) Ian Poulter(12/1 for Top European) for 0.30* e.w. @ Bet365 (despite his lousy chipping)
Farm Bureau: Pass
I am always hopeful that something more enticing screams at me as the events unfold.
GL
WGC:
- (1) Chad Campbell(50/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365 (despite the lousy tee time)
- (2) Ian Poulter(12/1 for Top European) for 0.30* e.w. @ Bet365 (despite his lousy chipping)
Farm Bureau: Pass
I am always hopeful that something more enticing screams at me as the events unfold.
GL
1st rd results 1-0
Mattiace -113 over Howell win
2nd rd Oly 72 hole cont
Els -140 over Perry (currently 1dn)
lot of juice to bite off but appears Kenny's woefull putting has returned and this is bad place for that to happen.
He missed 1 fairway (ranked 1st) yesterday ave 332 yds (8th)
and 1st in GIR's and managed only par.
Els conversly hit less than 50% of fairways and managed 1 over.
Mattiace -113 over Howell win
2nd rd Oly 72 hole cont
Els -140 over Perry (currently 1dn)
lot of juice to bite off but appears Kenny's woefull putting has returned and this is bad place for that to happen.
He missed 1 fairway (ranked 1st) yesterday ave 332 yds (8th)
and 1st in GIR's and managed only par.
Els conversly hit less than 50% of fairways and managed 1 over.
I don't know how he is playing, but this Fazio course is a good fit. That's really the reason, but also the circumstances are decent and the price is a lot richer than Vijay Singh(8/1).
Stuart Appleby(40/1) for 0.40* e.w. @ Bet365
GL
Stuart Appleby(40/1) for 0.40* e.w. @ Bet365
GL
3rd rd play 72 hole cont @ Oly
Singh -140 over Appleby (currently 1 dn)
another with big juice I feel warrented. This track quite similiar to US Open
where Appleby has been cut 4 of last 5 and Singh made all cuts with 3 top tens. Bad thing bout Singh is he will quit if things go bad. Applebys -2 yesterday not a concern.
53% fairways-50% Gir's and 24 putts on these greens would indicate some "very" good bounces.
Singh -140 over Appleby (currently 1 dn)
another with big juice I feel warrented. This track quite similiar to US Open
where Appleby has been cut 4 of last 5 and Singh made all cuts with 3 top tens. Bad thing bout Singh is he will quit if things go bad. Applebys -2 yesterday not a concern.
53% fairways-50% Gir's and 24 putts on these greens would indicate some "very" good bounces.
4th rd
N Price +105 over C Howell @ $plays
Furyk -130 over K Perry @ $plays
Weir -124 over Westwood @ Pinnacle
Scott -120 over Rose @ Pinnacle
Look for greens to be more like rd 2 today.Hoping the cream rises to the top on last day as most of these have significant final rd scor adv and the better player in my view. Am worried about going against Perry as he has be my nemesis this year whether I play on or against. Els has not been able to gain on him since 1st rd. Will give Furyk a go though as he ranks 1st in final rd scoring and while Perry not to bad at 56th it is significant drop from his preceding rd scoring ranks of no less than 8th.
N Price +105 over C Howell @ $plays
Furyk -130 over K Perry @ $plays
Weir -124 over Westwood @ Pinnacle
Scott -120 over Rose @ Pinnacle
Look for greens to be more like rd 2 today.Hoping the cream rises to the top on last day as most of these have significant final rd scor adv and the better player in my view. Am worried about going against Perry as he has be my nemesis this year whether I play on or against. Els has not been able to gain on him since 1st rd. Will give Furyk a go though as he ranks 1st in final rd scoring and while Perry not to bad at 56th it is significant drop from his preceding rd scoring ranks of no less than 8th.
Finals 4th rd 2-2 72 holes 4-2-1
4th rd
Price/Howell loss
Scott/Rose loss
Furyk/Perry win
Weir/Westwood win
72 holes
Toms/Mick win
Price M Campbell win
Estes/Ogilvey win
Mattiace/Romero loss
Clarke/Westwood loss
Oly cont
Els/Perry win
Singh/Appleby push
Outrights Amex Price 48th Kelly 21st - 2 units/ Farm Bureau -1 unit
Matches Amex 7-4-1 /Farm Bureau 4-0-1
Matches week 11-4 +6.47 units / ytd 246-176 + 56.67 units
Outrights week -3units ytd +35.8 units
Amazing Makes no difference how bad Tiger plays in 4th rd the contenders will place worse.
Nice call on Appleby LIA :thumb:
4th rd
Price/Howell loss
Scott/Rose loss
Furyk/Perry win
Weir/Westwood win
72 holes
Toms/Mick win
Price M Campbell win
Estes/Ogilvey win
Mattiace/Romero loss
Clarke/Westwood loss
Oly cont
Els/Perry win
Singh/Appleby push
Outrights Amex Price 48th Kelly 21st - 2 units/ Farm Bureau -1 unit
Matches Amex 7-4-1 /Farm Bureau 4-0-1
Matches week 11-4 +6.47 units / ytd 246-176 + 56.67 units
Outrights week -3units ytd +35.8 units
Amazing Makes no difference how bad Tiger plays in 4th rd the contenders will place worse.
Nice call on Appleby LIA :thumb:
Final update:
Matchups: 7-3-0; +5.35 units
Campbell/Garcia LOST by 14
Price/Campbell WON by 6
Scott/Campbell WON by 8
Clarke/Westwood LOST by 2
Estes/O'Malley WON by 6
Kaye/Jacquelin WON by 12
Howell/Bjorn WON by 2
Mattiace/Howell LOST by 8
Weir/Mickelson WON by 3
Toms/Westwood WON by 12
Outrights: 0-3; -3.00 units
Furyk 12th
Love 40th
Goosen 8th
Profitable event with a good return on the matchups. Always struggling to get a top-5 place win with any of the outrights though.
WGC ytd
Matchups: 7-3; +5.35 units
18-holes: 0-0; +0.00 units
Outrights: 0-6; -6.00 units
Matchups: 7-3-0; +5.35 units
Campbell/Garcia LOST by 14
Price/Campbell WON by 6
Scott/Campbell WON by 8
Clarke/Westwood LOST by 2
Estes/O'Malley WON by 6
Kaye/Jacquelin WON by 12
Howell/Bjorn WON by 2
Mattiace/Howell LOST by 8
Weir/Mickelson WON by 3
Toms/Westwood WON by 12
Outrights: 0-3; -3.00 units
Furyk 12th
Love 40th
Goosen 8th
Profitable event with a good return on the matchups. Always struggling to get a top-5 place win with any of the outrights though.
WGC ytd
Matchups: 7-3; +5.35 units
18-holes: 0-0; +0.00 units
Outrights: 0-6; -6.00 units
