The event for this week has changed, but calendarwise, it's still two weeks before the Masters, and nothing at all has changed in terms of the efforts of the world's best players over the last 3 months - or even 7 months - to have their game peaking on April 5.
Outrights:
Lucas Glover(66/1) e.w.
- - Last year was Lucas' first real taste of major championship golf, and the results were not pretty. FWIW, Lucas found a reason to skip Arnie's tournament last week. There is probably no player over the past 12 months I have more consistently overrated than Glover, but that is because I have him projected pretty damn high . . . This week, it's a big event on a Florida course that really suits his "new school" aggressiveness off the tee and his "old school" shaping of shots in to the greens. I'm not surprised to see evidence that Glover's game is trending well toward his next shot at a major, but conversely, especially with his spotty record to date this season, I doubt he's fine tuned his Master's preparations to the extent of placing any governor on his designs for this week's gathering of the game's elite.
Davis Love(80/1) e.w.
- - Until I saw it noted, I didn't quite appreciate that DLIII has finished in the Top 5 in 5 of his last 10 stroke play events. I do recall the decent sized expectations I had for his 2007 season - and "probably" more importantly, expectations Davis had - after finishing T2 at the Mercedes. Now Love comes to the course after his first MC during the last 11 events, and I can turn to my catechism to be reminded how frequently that juxtaposition has led to something close to a player's best. It's a bit of feast or famine around this venue, but I think I count at least 7 finishes in the Top 7 on his Doral resume. Lastly, it would be a short list of players that have a record to match Davis for thriving in the blustery conditions on tap for this week. "Flatters to deceive" might end up on his tombstone, but I see value here this week.
Johan Edfors(150/1) e.w.
- - His T28 last week was not what I projected around a Bay Hill track that played as tough as it did, notwithstanding some fairly generous fairways. Upon a closer look, I was just as impressed with the fact he had only one double bogie over the course of the 72 holes. While I've noticed a real fatigue factor in how the demands of this year's Florida swing make it extremely difficult for contenders from the prior week to charge up the leaderboard the following week, and notwithstanding a little leaking by Edfors to close lat Bay Hill, I think he has to be bubbly in what he takes from last week. Play like that around a course that this week is better suited or just as suited to his game could become a bit of a coming out party on the heels of Stenson's big footprints.
Stephen Ames(66/1) e.w.
- - I can spare a few nickels and chance letting The Players champion again carry some of my cash this week.
Aaron Baddeley(100/1) e.w.
- - Not a bad spot for Badds at all.
Matchups:
Garcia(+105) over Casey (Tournament) @ 5dimes
Edfors(-128) over Green (Tournament) @ 5dimes
Goydos(-130) over Karlsson (Tournament) @ 5dimes
GL
