I just wanted to know what all of you look at when your capping games. How do you take all the information and make a decision out of it? Stats(past and present), players, field, weather, etc. What's your system? Thanks.
What do you look at when capping a game?
- Thread starter jdh
- Start date
jdh, you have nothing better tyo do? I remember I post the same question like 4 or 5 weeks ago a saturday when I got nothing to do. (Im dont mean it in a rude way).
This is what I do, first of all I try to see the team as a team from the present not the past. (ex Rams, Pitts at first weeks, etc. etc). I dont pay attention to trends, no matter how strong they have been working. I always look twice at teams geeting points in home. Also I put attention on a last week team game (I mean vs who they played) and if they are coming from a BYE week. Hope that helps, or at least can start a debate.
This is what I do, first of all I try to see the team as a team from the present not the past. (ex Rams, Pitts at first weeks, etc. etc). I dont pay attention to trends, no matter how strong they have been working. I always look twice at teams geeting points in home. Also I put attention on a last week team game (I mean vs who they played) and if they are coming from a BYE week. Hope that helps, or at least can start a debate.
well, i don't remember running across your thread. hate i missed out on it, but i'm sure it was interesting. honestly, wheather or not i have anything to do is irrelevant. i'm just wondering what all of you do to prepare for laying down your money on a game. if i were a Raymond or fletcher i wouldn't ask. anyway, thanks for your input.
WHOO WHOO WHOO, by your respond I guess you are being kind of rude. When I said the nothing to do stuff, I mean it, and I wasnt trying to sound as an smart ass. I even wrote my reasons to pick a team. Wasnt trying to be rude, maybe just a misunderstood.:thumb:
sorry, it's cool.
Anyway, I value all of your opinion so if you like tell me what you do and how you go about it. I appreciate it. Don't forget there are some newbie's here that would probably benefit from it as well as some senior memebers.
Anyway, I value all of your opinion so if you like tell me what you do and how you go about it. I appreciate it. Don't forget there are some newbie's here that would probably benefit from it as well as some senior memebers.
That's a good question, jdh. There should be more threads like this around here. But it always seems to start some kind of cyber brawl.
I talked about what I do a little in one of my "pencilling in" threads.
First, what I consider the "art of it"
The first thing I do is go through all the games for next week and set my own lines. I'm actually going to post a little "experiment" later this week when I'm going to try making plays based entirely on my differences from the actual lines I'm getting. If I had been doing this this season, I'd be up more than I currently am.
If I'm off by more then .5 point for small spreads or 1 pt for large spreads, I try to figure out why.
Then, basically, I take each of the lines from the books and put a percentage on it. Meaning, I might think Oak has a 50%, 51%, etc. chance of covering. That sounds more scientific than it is. Basically, its a 0* - 5* rating for the strength of the play. I won't play my 0,1,2 because of the vig. If I have a 1 or 2, and I can get the game at even money, or +105 or something, I'll lean towards it.
All of the above is just done by feel. I truly think lines are set more with BETTORS in mind than with the MATCHUPS in mind. Often, the line reflects BOTH. Sometimes I think the matchup warrants a different line.
I usually have 5-10 plays at this point. Then...
The "science of it":
At this point, I start looking at stats. O vs. D stats. Recent stats. Injuries. Most of this, I get from different websites. A factor I like to consider is if Team A has been playing worse or better opponents than they're playing this week. I look a little at surfaces. I think weather factors, except severe weather, are overrated.
I also look at some power ratings and see if any are off from the lines.
This will rarely get me to pick a side, or change sides. This is mainly done to weed out some of my selections.
----
That's about it. Now some disclaimers and caveats and thoughts about other methods.
I'm not saying mine is the "right" way to handicap games. I dont' want to get called out for sounding like an ass if I wind up sub .500.
But, its how I do it. Its what I'm comfortable with. Basically if I can make a bet without feeling like I made a sucker-bet, I feel good. When I was a kid, as the late games were winding down, my old man and I would go through all the games and guess what the spreads would be. That's still what I do today.
Setting my own lines is kind of tricky. I really tend to have a "will be" and a "should be" line on each game. For instance, this week I had ZONA "will be" a 3.5 pt dog, but "should be" PK. I know if the line were PK that STL would get way too much action, and if I were a book, I'd never put PK out there because of the risk, but you get the drift.
I've heard it said, "X's and O's are for suckers." I kind of believe that and it leads me to believe that handicapping is more of an art than a science. that will get me in trouble because I started static a month ago for ripping on a guy for saying, "just go with your gut". I still think it's more involved than that. In particular, I think "just go against your gut" would probably be a more useful thing to do for most people.
An illustative story, I hope...
I have a neighbor who just started betting with a local this year. He asks me who I have last weekend and I tell him I like ZONA. He says, "OH, SF is my lock of the week. SF is going to kill 'em". I asked him "how many points would they have to be laying before you took ZONA?" He looked at me like I was speaking martian. I said, "well, you'd take ZONA if they were getting 30 points wouldn't you?" we ended up deciding he'd take SF to about 14 points. that's a TEASER spread and he'd play it at 10:11.
Basically the point of that story is that he's "capping" the game without even considering a point spread. he's just looking at two teams, one's good, one's bad, and he's going to bet the good one. People get away from the point spread when they look at games. They don't really get what laying 6 points really means. I think that's why you hear things like "the public loves favorites" and whatnot. (the fact that he won this game, and I lost it is completely beside the point I'm trying to make.) If you think SF should have been a 9 pt fave and you like them laying 8, that's one thing but don't just jump on them because they're at home and they're better and you'd lay up to 14.
[btw, I still think ZONA was the play. Plummer goes INC instead of INT on that play of his and they kick a FG and go down by 7. SF is +4 in TO's and they still only covered by 1.5. that's the kind of game I was winning early, but am losing now.]
This is getting too long, but I do have more stuff to add about distribution of scores around the spread (and how this relates to the vig and teasers, and getting .5 pt here or there), why I bet mostly dogs, when and why I bet ML's, etc. but maybe some other time.
I talked about what I do a little in one of my "pencilling in" threads.
First, what I consider the "art of it"
The first thing I do is go through all the games for next week and set my own lines. I'm actually going to post a little "experiment" later this week when I'm going to try making plays based entirely on my differences from the actual lines I'm getting. If I had been doing this this season, I'd be up more than I currently am.
If I'm off by more then .5 point for small spreads or 1 pt for large spreads, I try to figure out why.
Then, basically, I take each of the lines from the books and put a percentage on it. Meaning, I might think Oak has a 50%, 51%, etc. chance of covering. That sounds more scientific than it is. Basically, its a 0* - 5* rating for the strength of the play. I won't play my 0,1,2 because of the vig. If I have a 1 or 2, and I can get the game at even money, or +105 or something, I'll lean towards it.
All of the above is just done by feel. I truly think lines are set more with BETTORS in mind than with the MATCHUPS in mind. Often, the line reflects BOTH. Sometimes I think the matchup warrants a different line.
I usually have 5-10 plays at this point. Then...
The "science of it":
At this point, I start looking at stats. O vs. D stats. Recent stats. Injuries. Most of this, I get from different websites. A factor I like to consider is if Team A has been playing worse or better opponents than they're playing this week. I look a little at surfaces. I think weather factors, except severe weather, are overrated.
I also look at some power ratings and see if any are off from the lines.
This will rarely get me to pick a side, or change sides. This is mainly done to weed out some of my selections.
----
That's about it. Now some disclaimers and caveats and thoughts about other methods.
I'm not saying mine is the "right" way to handicap games. I dont' want to get called out for sounding like an ass if I wind up sub .500.
But, its how I do it. Its what I'm comfortable with. Basically if I can make a bet without feeling like I made a sucker-bet, I feel good. When I was a kid, as the late games were winding down, my old man and I would go through all the games and guess what the spreads would be. That's still what I do today.
Setting my own lines is kind of tricky. I really tend to have a "will be" and a "should be" line on each game. For instance, this week I had ZONA "will be" a 3.5 pt dog, but "should be" PK. I know if the line were PK that STL would get way too much action, and if I were a book, I'd never put PK out there because of the risk, but you get the drift.
I've heard it said, "X's and O's are for suckers." I kind of believe that and it leads me to believe that handicapping is more of an art than a science. that will get me in trouble because I started static a month ago for ripping on a guy for saying, "just go with your gut". I still think it's more involved than that. In particular, I think "just go against your gut" would probably be a more useful thing to do for most people.
An illustative story, I hope...
I have a neighbor who just started betting with a local this year. He asks me who I have last weekend and I tell him I like ZONA. He says, "OH, SF is my lock of the week. SF is going to kill 'em". I asked him "how many points would they have to be laying before you took ZONA?" He looked at me like I was speaking martian. I said, "well, you'd take ZONA if they were getting 30 points wouldn't you?" we ended up deciding he'd take SF to about 14 points. that's a TEASER spread and he'd play it at 10:11.
Basically the point of that story is that he's "capping" the game without even considering a point spread. he's just looking at two teams, one's good, one's bad, and he's going to bet the good one. People get away from the point spread when they look at games. They don't really get what laying 6 points really means. I think that's why you hear things like "the public loves favorites" and whatnot. (the fact that he won this game, and I lost it is completely beside the point I'm trying to make.) If you think SF should have been a 9 pt fave and you like them laying 8, that's one thing but don't just jump on them because they're at home and they're better and you'd lay up to 14.
[btw, I still think ZONA was the play. Plummer goes INC instead of INT on that play of his and they kick a FG and go down by 7. SF is +4 in TO's and they still only covered by 1.5.
that's the kind of game I was winning early, but am losing now.]This is getting too long, but I do have more stuff to add about distribution of scores around the spread (and how this relates to the vig and teasers, and getting .5 pt here or there), why I bet mostly dogs, when and why I bet ML's, etc. but maybe some other time.
Wow, that was quite the response Shrimp. And interesting too. Mine will probably end up being just as long, I love talking about this stuff.
Here's my routine.
My week starts Sunday night during the late game now. I used to start on Tuesday or Wednesday, but I missed out on too many values. I'd always be kicking myself saying Oh Man, I could have gotten 2? etc. Lines come out around 8 or 8:30 at Olympic and I try to get a look at them as soon as possible. These early early lines can be quite different than what they will be a day later and you can often save yourself a valuable half point or more. I may put in a bet right there, maybe once every second week I spot something right there and hit it. Of course the downfall of putting something in this early is you can't fully hash it out. And on occasion I'll actually get an inferior line if it moves the opposite direction that I think it will go. But I've had real success with these early plays regardless.
Monday of course I will study that night's game. I've already got the basis of my research done thru the week, so usually there's not too much thought or work required.
Tuesday evening I read up on what happened on the weekend, go over boxscores, and see if anything stands out. I've got a statistical spreadsheet system that I enter all of the previous week's scores into. This system gives me a basis to start with, potential plays if everything else pans out. I've got a book (Carib) that offers 2% juice on Tuesdays, so if I found something on Sunday that wasn't urgent, or if I can find something on Tuesday that looks good right off the bat I will take advantage of the reduced juice. I usually put in at least one bet on Tuesday. Saves a couple of units over the course of the year just putting in bets on reduced juice days at the various books.
Wednesday I take a break usually and don't do anything too brain straining. Gotta have a bit of a break from it or I don't see things clearly.
Thursday I start to get serious about it. I check out teams rushing offence & defence numbers, passing offence & defence numbers, etc. Mostly all numbers stuff to start to dig for the not-obvious plays. I keep track of any mismatches I can find. Start tracking how the lines have moved since Sunday at my books. Probably 3-4 hours at least of math-intensive (mostly) study. Also start looking for letdown/overlook situations, analyzing each team's schedule, and like Shrimp mentioned, I like to compare the current opponent to recent ones for each team. A big part of handicapping I find is finding situations where a team has played one type of team for 3-4 weeks in a row and suddenly runs into a polar opposite. Situations like this are a lot more important than sheer statistics.
By Friday I have some idea of what I will play on the weekend. I start entering my contests. I am in a LOT of contests and I like to get them out of the way early. REALLY screws me up if it's Sunday morning and I haven't gotten to this yet! I enter different picks in every contest...not just my best bets, but a variety of picks, often times opposite sides of the same game in different contests. It's funny, I don't take these contests all that seriously, I'm very casual about what I take...but it's an important part of my handicapping now. When it's over I look at my contest sheet and I start to see teams that I have taken repeatedly without making a conscious effort at doing so. This process gets my brain thinking in a different way, away from the numbers. I can't really explain it, but it's vital to how I work now. I also start to track what is coming up in the consensus at Big Guy, the Hilton Contest, etc, to get an idea of what other people (sharp and not-so-sharp) are thinking. This can be useful for avoiding a few public picks, which lose more often than win. Friday night I will put in a couple more plays (again, some at reduced juice, 5% at another of my books). Will hold back putting in dogs or unders if I feel I can get a better line Sunday.
Saturday is another lighter day. By this point I have usually looked at each game every way possible, backwards, forwards and upside down. Will check out weather reports, finish the contests if they aren't done yet, and get to bed early if I can (which would be anything before 2am).
Sunday, I'm usually up around 10 or so. Got about 7 or 8 browsers open (one for each book + Madjacks + a couple other sites)...spreadsheet, papers everywhere...TV on the pregame shows. By this point I know what I want and I'm usually just hitting refresh on all my browsers waiting for the number I want to come up on whatever it is I am betting.
Of course I watch all the games (man I love Sunday Ticket!). Will try to hit some halftime middles or whatever I can. By 7:30pm I am pretty much drained. Get in a bet on the 8:30 if I'm playing it, get those early lines. By halftime of the Sunday night game I've usually passed out on the couch. Hopefully UP money for the day.
=============================================
So that's my week.
Things I believe in, in no particular order:
*Comparisons of recent opponents to the current one.
*Opposing the public.
*Betting more dogs than favorites whenever possible.
*Statistical mismatches.
*Letdown/overlook/bounceback situations. Players are human beings and are prone to overconfidence, dejection, embarassment, and everything else the rest of us are. If you go by numbers only you never spot this.
*Systems plays.
*Discipline. Being able to let a Sunday night or Monday night game go by without a bet on it if I don't truly see value. Not getting desperate when I've had a bad day, or getting over-confident and careless when I've had a good day.
Things I don't believe in, or try to ignore:
*Long-term head-to-head trends. Knowing Team A beat Team B 18 times in a row in the 1980's is of no value to me...has no bearing on this week's game as I see it. I ignore almost any trend that goes back more than 3 years if it is team-specific or this-team-vs-that-team specific.
*Betting on a game because "they're due", or because "they can't win/lose X number of games in a row (trust me, they can).
*Betting on a team because it's a "must win" game for them. I've found in the past "must win" teams lose so often, it's almost a system to go against a team in this position. If a team is in a "must win" situation, that usually means they haven't gotten the job done adequately up to now...so why would they suddenly get their act together today? Plus the line is usually inflated against them as most other people are also thinking they "must win"
*Revenge. I really dislike this angle. Saying a team will be mad because they lost to them last year in Week 4 and they will remember it etc etc. It's all bunk as I see it.
*Betting on teams because of non-related events. IE. Sunday all the dogs covered, so it's a dog's week....or Sunday all the dogs covered, so the favorite should win tonight to balance things out. Also includes things like "The Browns will win this week because their owner died", "The New York teams will win this week because 9/11 happened one year ago this week", etc. Forget that stuff.
Here's my routine.
My week starts Sunday night during the late game now. I used to start on Tuesday or Wednesday, but I missed out on too many values. I'd always be kicking myself saying Oh Man, I could have gotten 2? etc. Lines come out around 8 or 8:30 at Olympic and I try to get a look at them as soon as possible. These early early lines can be quite different than what they will be a day later and you can often save yourself a valuable half point or more. I may put in a bet right there, maybe once every second week I spot something right there and hit it. Of course the downfall of putting something in this early is you can't fully hash it out. And on occasion I'll actually get an inferior line if it moves the opposite direction that I think it will go. But I've had real success with these early plays regardless.
Monday of course I will study that night's game. I've already got the basis of my research done thru the week, so usually there's not too much thought or work required.
Tuesday evening I read up on what happened on the weekend, go over boxscores, and see if anything stands out. I've got a statistical spreadsheet system that I enter all of the previous week's scores into. This system gives me a basis to start with, potential plays if everything else pans out. I've got a book (Carib) that offers 2% juice on Tuesdays, so if I found something on Sunday that wasn't urgent, or if I can find something on Tuesday that looks good right off the bat I will take advantage of the reduced juice. I usually put in at least one bet on Tuesday. Saves a couple of units over the course of the year just putting in bets on reduced juice days at the various books.
Wednesday I take a break usually and don't do anything too brain straining. Gotta have a bit of a break from it or I don't see things clearly.
Thursday I start to get serious about it. I check out teams rushing offence & defence numbers, passing offence & defence numbers, etc. Mostly all numbers stuff to start to dig for the not-obvious plays. I keep track of any mismatches I can find. Start tracking how the lines have moved since Sunday at my books. Probably 3-4 hours at least of math-intensive (mostly) study. Also start looking for letdown/overlook situations, analyzing each team's schedule, and like Shrimp mentioned, I like to compare the current opponent to recent ones for each team. A big part of handicapping I find is finding situations where a team has played one type of team for 3-4 weeks in a row and suddenly runs into a polar opposite. Situations like this are a lot more important than sheer statistics.
By Friday I have some idea of what I will play on the weekend. I start entering my contests. I am in a LOT of contests and I like to get them out of the way early. REALLY screws me up if it's Sunday morning and I haven't gotten to this yet! I enter different picks in every contest...not just my best bets, but a variety of picks, often times opposite sides of the same game in different contests. It's funny, I don't take these contests all that seriously, I'm very casual about what I take...but it's an important part of my handicapping now. When it's over I look at my contest sheet and I start to see teams that I have taken repeatedly without making a conscious effort at doing so. This process gets my brain thinking in a different way, away from the numbers. I can't really explain it, but it's vital to how I work now. I also start to track what is coming up in the consensus at Big Guy, the Hilton Contest, etc, to get an idea of what other people (sharp and not-so-sharp) are thinking. This can be useful for avoiding a few public picks, which lose more often than win. Friday night I will put in a couple more plays (again, some at reduced juice, 5% at another of my books). Will hold back putting in dogs or unders if I feel I can get a better line Sunday.
Saturday is another lighter day. By this point I have usually looked at each game every way possible, backwards, forwards and upside down. Will check out weather reports, finish the contests if they aren't done yet, and get to bed early if I can (which would be anything before 2am).
Sunday, I'm usually up around 10 or so. Got about 7 or 8 browsers open (one for each book + Madjacks + a couple other sites)...spreadsheet, papers everywhere...TV on the pregame shows. By this point I know what I want and I'm usually just hitting refresh on all my browsers waiting for the number I want to come up on whatever it is I am betting.
Of course I watch all the games (man I love Sunday Ticket!). Will try to hit some halftime middles or whatever I can. By 7:30pm I am pretty much drained. Get in a bet on the 8:30 if I'm playing it, get those early lines. By halftime of the Sunday night game I've usually passed out on the couch. Hopefully UP money for the day.
=============================================
So that's my week.
Things I believe in, in no particular order:
*Comparisons of recent opponents to the current one.
*Opposing the public.
*Betting more dogs than favorites whenever possible.
*Statistical mismatches.
*Letdown/overlook/bounceback situations. Players are human beings and are prone to overconfidence, dejection, embarassment, and everything else the rest of us are. If you go by numbers only you never spot this.
*Systems plays.
*Discipline. Being able to let a Sunday night or Monday night game go by without a bet on it if I don't truly see value. Not getting desperate when I've had a bad day, or getting over-confident and careless when I've had a good day.
Things I don't believe in, or try to ignore:
*Long-term head-to-head trends. Knowing Team A beat Team B 18 times in a row in the 1980's is of no value to me...has no bearing on this week's game as I see it. I ignore almost any trend that goes back more than 3 years if it is team-specific or this-team-vs-that-team specific.
*Betting on a game because "they're due", or because "they can't win/lose X number of games in a row (trust me, they can).
*Betting on a team because it's a "must win" game for them. I've found in the past "must win" teams lose so often, it's almost a system to go against a team in this position. If a team is in a "must win" situation, that usually means they haven't gotten the job done adequately up to now...so why would they suddenly get their act together today? Plus the line is usually inflated against them as most other people are also thinking they "must win"
*Revenge. I really dislike this angle. Saying a team will be mad because they lost to them last year in Week 4 and they will remember it etc etc. It's all bunk as I see it.
*Betting on teams because of non-related events. IE. Sunday all the dogs covered, so it's a dog's week....or Sunday all the dogs covered, so the favorite should win tonight to balance things out. Also includes things like "The Browns will win this week because their owner died", "The New York teams will win this week because 9/11 happened one year ago this week", etc. Forget that stuff.
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Nice post, GM.
I have a lot of things that I ignore, too, but sometimes you'll take static from people who believe in them. I think there's kind of a "selective-reinforcement" with some of those. I'm just saying that if someone bets the "revenge factor" they're more likely to remember the wins on that angle more than the losses, or they justify the loss somehow.
If someone could define "revenge" and track it and it won, I'd be impressed. There was a baseball angle this year with repeat pitching matchups that someone was posting. It did seem valid at the time.
TheShrimp
I have a lot of things that I ignore, too, but sometimes you'll take static from people who believe in them. I think there's kind of a "selective-reinforcement" with some of those. I'm just saying that if someone bets the "revenge factor" they're more likely to remember the wins on that angle more than the losses, or they justify the loss somehow.
If someone could define "revenge" and track it and it won, I'd be impressed. There was a baseball angle this year with repeat pitching matchups that someone was posting. It did seem valid at the time.
TheShrimp
good info here. I agree we need more of this.
wish i had time to do a write up myself but I am too busy making money coattailing Jessy Lover right now.
Thanks
Scott-Atlanta
wish i had time to do a write up myself but I am too busy making money coattailing Jessy Lover right now.
Thanks
Scott-Atlanta
I appreciate all of this info. There is only so much info to take into consideration, all of it can be important. I didn't start this thread just for my personal enjoyment but to help all of us do better at capping. Some of you guys I followed in baseball and you did well so I looked to see you capping football. Some of you are having a bad start but that's cool, we all do. Anyway, I'm rambling but the point is keep this thread up top. Some of the newbies and seniors can bring all of us to light about things going on. Some of you have already brought some intersetijng things to the table. We need more of that. Thanks to everyone and good luck!
We can all beat the bookie if we start capping together.
...i sound like a freakin tee-ball coach.
We can all beat the bookie if we start capping together.
...i sound like a freakin tee-ball coach.
GM said:
GM
Question - Please list the differant kinds of teams. How many are there ?
So both teams in this situation will be playing polar opposites ?
How do you decide what to do from here ?
Thanks
Scott-Atlanta
I think of when PHI played, and spanked, WASH, DALL, HOU then went on the road to play JAX. Maybe not a polar opposite, but a different sort of team, definitely a different caliber.
Also, maybe a team goes from playing KC to playing TB, or OAK to DALL.
It's NOT true that both teams in that situation will be playing polar opposites. He means Team A is playing an opposite from what they played the week before.
Also, maybe a team goes from playing KC to playing TB, or OAK to DALL.
It's NOT true that both teams in that situation will be playing polar opposites. He means Team A is playing an opposite from what they played the week before.
awesome thread idea..........
i tend to look primarily at
"situations"
live dogs
home teams off a loss
teams with the better coach
teams with the better defense
look ahead possibilities
qb and center injuries
games which look too easy to take the fave or dog
scheduling
division rematches
go against teams the masses like
and naturally " madjack experts" opinions
:moon: :shrug:
i tend to look primarily at
"situations"
live dogs
home teams off a loss
teams with the better coach
teams with the better defense
look ahead possibilities
qb and center injuries
games which look too easy to take the fave or dog
scheduling
division rematches
go against teams the masses like
and naturally " madjack experts" opinions
:moon: :shrug:Scott-Atlanta said:
Scott,
Mainly I am talking about a team playing a string of teams that are poor defensively, and then running up against a team that is great defensively. For example, team X plays against KC, Jets, Oakland and Buffalo in order, and then gets Tampa Bay. A team that hasn't faced good defence for this long gets soft. They haven't had to work very hard to score against these teams. When Tampa Bay comes to town they get shut out...or at least have extreme difficulty moving the ball.
It works in reverse too. Face a lot of good defence for 3-4 games, then face a weak one, and the offence just explodes. The team has become so accustomed to tough conditions that they almost score at will (or so it seems). And the great part of it is that few people see it coming, because this team has scored so few points for so many weeks, people just think they suck.
Get two teams that have bad D, and have faced all good D, and now face each other, and you have an Over play possibility. etc etc.
If you get a team with good D that has faced nothing but good D for weeks, going against a team with bad D that has faced nothing but bad D for weeks, you have a really strong play on the first team, generally.
The same thing sort of works for offences (face a bunch of bad O, then a really good one and the team gives up a ton of points). But looking at it from the offensive point of view is not as effective as comparing the defences a team has faced.
I can give you quite a few. Looking into the database here to see what I can find.
On the offensive side:
Arizona: Faced weak offences for 3 straight weeks (NYG, Car, Dal). Gave up 7, 13 and 6 pts respectively. Then they face SF (good offence) and give up 38 pts, last weekend.
Atlanta: Faced weak offences for 4 straight weeks (Cin, TB, NYG, Car). Gave up 3, 20, 10 and 0 pts in those games. Then faced NO last weekend (#1 rated offence) and they allow 35.
On the defensive side:
New England faces 2 weak defences (NYJ, KC), and score 44 and 41 pts respectively. Following week they get SD and put up 14, then Miami, they score 13.
Numerous others. There are of course times where it doesn't work out too.
This weekend there are a number of situations where teams are facing opposite types:
Chicago facing best offence and best defence in 3 weeks.
Cleveland facing best defence in 3 weeks.
Houston facing weakest defence by far all year (Only Buffalo comes close to comparing 3 weeks ago, and even they rank quite a bit higher than Cinci).
Indy facing weakest defence in 4 weeks (though not a lot weaker than last week's opponent, so not a real strong lean here).
Minnesota facing toughest defence all season, and by far the toughest they have seen in 4 weeks.
Philadelphia facing weakest defence in 4 weeks.
San Diego facing weakest offence in 4 weeks.
Tampa Bay facing weakest defence in 5 weeks.
These aren't all automatically plays, far from it. Just a starting point. These kinds of comparisons tend to point out a lot of favorites, and some of them aren't that strong, especially when you check out the other team and see what they are coming out of. But when you get an underdog showing up here it's definitely worth considering. And something like Chi and Philly's patterns matching up definitely have me strongly considering the Eagles.
{edit}... to remove Carolina from the last list as their profile doesn't apply until next week.
On the offensive side:
Arizona: Faced weak offences for 3 straight weeks (NYG, Car, Dal). Gave up 7, 13 and 6 pts respectively. Then they face SF (good offence) and give up 38 pts, last weekend.
Atlanta: Faced weak offences for 4 straight weeks (Cin, TB, NYG, Car). Gave up 3, 20, 10 and 0 pts in those games. Then faced NO last weekend (#1 rated offence) and they allow 35.
On the defensive side:
New England faces 2 weak defences (NYJ, KC), and score 44 and 41 pts respectively. Following week they get SD and put up 14, then Miami, they score 13.
Numerous others. There are of course times where it doesn't work out too.
This weekend there are a number of situations where teams are facing opposite types:
Chicago facing best offence and best defence in 3 weeks.
Cleveland facing best defence in 3 weeks.
Houston facing weakest defence by far all year (Only Buffalo comes close to comparing 3 weeks ago, and even they rank quite a bit higher than Cinci).
Indy facing weakest defence in 4 weeks (though not a lot weaker than last week's opponent, so not a real strong lean here).
Minnesota facing toughest defence all season, and by far the toughest they have seen in 4 weeks.
Philadelphia facing weakest defence in 4 weeks.
San Diego facing weakest offence in 4 weeks.
Tampa Bay facing weakest defence in 5 weeks.
These aren't all automatically plays, far from it. Just a starting point. These kinds of comparisons tend to point out a lot of favorites, and some of them aren't that strong, especially when you check out the other team and see what they are coming out of. But when you get an underdog showing up here it's definitely worth considering. And something like Chi and Philly's patterns matching up definitely have me strongly considering the Eagles.
{edit}... to remove Carolina from the last list as their profile doesn't apply until next week.
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