Value. Everybody seems to kick this word around without definition. Value is a very abstract term. Value is often determined by Price. A lawn mower from Sears might cost $200.00 but at Best Buy it's $189.95. One might say that Best Buy is the better value when what they really mean is that it's the cheapest. Quality is another important determinant of value. Perhaps the Sear's mower has a longer guarantee or free maintenance agreement. These additions could make the $200.00 seem like the better value because the quality assurance is included in the price. And lastly, Time is a determinant of value. If one store is on your way home from work and the other is 30 minutes across town you would have to consider the value of your time.
I have learned to always use these three determinants in assigning value to my day trades...the lowest price possible for the highest quality possible in the fastest amount of time possible. This spells Value to me. A day trader has a very short time span to make his money, often only a few days and sometimes a matter of hours. If you tie up your capital with something that isn't moving, or moves slowly, you make ZERO. When I make ZERO, I consider it a loss...as in a "lost opportunity cost". Make no mistake, a lost opportunity costs you something!
Now accessing Value in sports gambling is similar to stocks AND lawn mowers.
PRICE - You have seen expensive favorites and inexpensive favorites. If price were a sole determinant we'd all be taking the inexpensive favorites. But we are willing to pay more for the expensive favorites because of a higher perception of Quality.
QUALITY - Some teams are just better than others. Better pitching ... or better hitting ... or better managers. Some teams have all three. Some have none of the above. We make money betting on high quality and/or against poor quality. Successful gamblers (and investors) never underestimate the importance of Quality. It's not the price that is going to make the team win. Does Tampa Bay +220 sound like it's going to win any more often than Tampa Bay at +120? Heck no. I have read messages in this forum from some gamblers who pick a team +180 and justify their decision by saying that " This is a good value at this price." It implies that the +190 was the only reason they were on this pick...that at +120 they would have simply ignored the play irregardless of the teams Quality or liklihood of winning.
I never look at the lines until AFTER I have analized the matchup. As I analyze, I list the matchups that I think I can pick a winner in. I compare the pitchers, weather (if applicable), trends, and the teams state of mind. Then, after listing these 10 or 12 teams, I check the lines and see where I can get the most bang for my buck. Price is secondary. Always.
TIME - All resources are scarce. Your time spent in analyzing games, placing bets, keeping a record, etc., are the investment of Time that you should expect a return on. This is Time taken away from the pursuit of income, from playing with your kids, from visiting your Mother, from enjoying life. If gambling is just a pleasant distraction for you, like any other hobby, then enjoy yourself. But if you are seriously trying to use gambling as a source of income, then it must be treated like a job. And as with any other job, Time must be spent producing income.
These guys we see on this forum whom are gambling for a living probably spend 5, 6, or even 8 hours a day on their "job". I am only guessing, but I bet I'm close.
As with the stock market, invest your Time before you invest your money, and pick Quality before Price.
I have learned to always use these three determinants in assigning value to my day trades...the lowest price possible for the highest quality possible in the fastest amount of time possible. This spells Value to me. A day trader has a very short time span to make his money, often only a few days and sometimes a matter of hours. If you tie up your capital with something that isn't moving, or moves slowly, you make ZERO. When I make ZERO, I consider it a loss...as in a "lost opportunity cost". Make no mistake, a lost opportunity costs you something!
Now accessing Value in sports gambling is similar to stocks AND lawn mowers.
PRICE - You have seen expensive favorites and inexpensive favorites. If price were a sole determinant we'd all be taking the inexpensive favorites. But we are willing to pay more for the expensive favorites because of a higher perception of Quality.
QUALITY - Some teams are just better than others. Better pitching ... or better hitting ... or better managers. Some teams have all three. Some have none of the above. We make money betting on high quality and/or against poor quality. Successful gamblers (and investors) never underestimate the importance of Quality. It's not the price that is going to make the team win. Does Tampa Bay +220 sound like it's going to win any more often than Tampa Bay at +120? Heck no. I have read messages in this forum from some gamblers who pick a team +180 and justify their decision by saying that " This is a good value at this price." It implies that the +190 was the only reason they were on this pick...that at +120 they would have simply ignored the play irregardless of the teams Quality or liklihood of winning.
I never look at the lines until AFTER I have analized the matchup. As I analyze, I list the matchups that I think I can pick a winner in. I compare the pitchers, weather (if applicable), trends, and the teams state of mind. Then, after listing these 10 or 12 teams, I check the lines and see where I can get the most bang for my buck. Price is secondary. Always.
TIME - All resources are scarce. Your time spent in analyzing games, placing bets, keeping a record, etc., are the investment of Time that you should expect a return on. This is Time taken away from the pursuit of income, from playing with your kids, from visiting your Mother, from enjoying life. If gambling is just a pleasant distraction for you, like any other hobby, then enjoy yourself. But if you are seriously trying to use gambling as a source of income, then it must be treated like a job. And as with any other job, Time must be spent producing income.
These guys we see on this forum whom are gambling for a living probably spend 5, 6, or even 8 hours a day on their "job". I am only guessing, but I bet I'm close.
As with the stock market, invest your Time before you invest your money, and pick Quality before Price.
