I liked the ravens on the moneyline this weekend. I tore up the ticket when Elvis threw that first pick of the game.
While the steeler defense was better than I realized, I think a more conservative Grbac (and by more conservative I mean not throwing the ball to a receiver 30 yards downfield off your back foot while getting hit) could have kept the ravens in it. He threw the endzone pick in the first half after the McAlister INT when they really needed points. That was unforgivable.
I suppose what I expected was something more like the second half (especially the way the ravens D played), and after Je. Lewis' punt return, and the ravens holding the steelers 3 and out the next drive, I thought they might be getting back into it. But a 3 and out by the ravens put an end to those thoughts.
I bet the raiders with the ML also this weeked and that, of course, stung. But an easy cover by STL lessened the damage.
Upcoming this weekend. I already have the steelers -8 and the Eagles +12.5. I'm willing to try to middle both of them if i see 9.5 (which might already be at SIA), and 10, respectively.
While the Pats have a low ranked defense, they are stingy with points -- i.e. they have an excellent red zone defense, attributable to bellicheck's schemes. Of course they haven't faced as many teams as physical as the steelers. Those pounding runs up the middle by pitt at the goal line will be more effectve against the pats than they were against the ravens since the ravens LB's can really stand a guy up. Pat's should be able to move the ball better than the ravens due to a better O-line, but they haven't seen defensive speed like pittsburghs. Brady still is not great, but is much more effective when the run game is working, which it won't. Steelers (-8).
The teams that STL has had trouble with this year (NO, TB, PHI, NYG) are good pass coverage teams that LB's can smack the QB. Its obvious to everyone that Warner doesn't like to get hit and maybe moreso with this sore back. A line of 12.5 seems high to me. INDY was only a *13* point dog the last week of the season. A 28 point win was convincing this weekend, but you can't usually count on 21 points from the DEFENSE. I think the line is indicative of STL's blowout this weekend, and isn't really accourate, and that might be the only good point I've made here. 12.5 isn't 10, either, as you mathematicians know, and really increases the chances for the dreaded back-door cover, and means that even with a 6 point lead by PHI, the 12.5 puts STL down by 3 tds against the number. dang. I wouldn't bet STL this weekend with your money, though I might middle it if it moves to 10, which it won't.
Thanks for reading. BTW, I'm getting pounded this post season, so anyone looking for value might want to bet against these numbers.
Good luck to all.
TheShrimp
While the steeler defense was better than I realized, I think a more conservative Grbac (and by more conservative I mean not throwing the ball to a receiver 30 yards downfield off your back foot while getting hit) could have kept the ravens in it. He threw the endzone pick in the first half after the McAlister INT when they really needed points. That was unforgivable.
I suppose what I expected was something more like the second half (especially the way the ravens D played), and after Je. Lewis' punt return, and the ravens holding the steelers 3 and out the next drive, I thought they might be getting back into it. But a 3 and out by the ravens put an end to those thoughts.
I bet the raiders with the ML also this weeked and that, of course, stung. But an easy cover by STL lessened the damage.
Upcoming this weekend. I already have the steelers -8 and the Eagles +12.5. I'm willing to try to middle both of them if i see 9.5 (which might already be at SIA), and 10, respectively.
While the Pats have a low ranked defense, they are stingy with points -- i.e. they have an excellent red zone defense, attributable to bellicheck's schemes. Of course they haven't faced as many teams as physical as the steelers. Those pounding runs up the middle by pitt at the goal line will be more effectve against the pats than they were against the ravens since the ravens LB's can really stand a guy up. Pat's should be able to move the ball better than the ravens due to a better O-line, but they haven't seen defensive speed like pittsburghs. Brady still is not great, but is much more effective when the run game is working, which it won't. Steelers (-8).
The teams that STL has had trouble with this year (NO, TB, PHI, NYG) are good pass coverage teams that LB's can smack the QB. Its obvious to everyone that Warner doesn't like to get hit and maybe moreso with this sore back. A line of 12.5 seems high to me. INDY was only a *13* point dog the last week of the season. A 28 point win was convincing this weekend, but you can't usually count on 21 points from the DEFENSE. I think the line is indicative of STL's blowout this weekend, and isn't really accourate, and that might be the only good point I've made here. 12.5 isn't 10, either, as you mathematicians know, and really increases the chances for the dreaded back-door cover, and means that even with a 6 point lead by PHI, the 12.5 puts STL down by 3 tds against the number. dang. I wouldn't bet STL this weekend with your money, though I might middle it if it moves to 10, which it won't.
Thanks for reading. BTW, I'm getting pounded this post season, so anyone looking for value might want to bet against these numbers.
Good luck to all.
TheShrimp
