What Is It That Makes A Game Stand Out To You....

[slvrblet]

THE FIRST THING I LOOK AT IS THE STARTING PITCHERS LAST 3 STARTS......WHIP AND ERA DIFFERENCIAL......IF THE DIFF IS OVER 3 IN ERA, AND OVER 1 IN WHIP TO OPPOSING PITCHER I START TO DIG...TEAMS BATTING R VS L......WHAT HAVE THE TEAMS BEEN DOING IN THIER LAST 5 TO 10 GAMES.....


JUST THOUGHT ID ADD SOMETHING NEW HERE...ALL DIFFERENT VIEWS AND COMMENTS WELCOME.......

 

[Franky Wright]

This has the makings of a great thread!

This has the makings of a great thread!

For me it is simply the ROI, or return on investment.

 

[slvrblet]

THIS COULD BE A VERY GOOD THREAD

THIS COULD BE A VERY GOOD THREAD

BUT IT NEEDS INFORMATION FROM MANY DIFFRENT ANGLES...BUT MAYBE WE ONLY HAVE COAT TAILERS HERE????????:shrug:

 

[vyrus858]

WHAT MAKES A GAME STANDOUT:

WHAT MAKES A GAME STANDOUT:

What really makes a game standout to me is the way a particular team hits against the listed pitcher. If the players in team hit a decent .275 or higher with at least 75 at bats then I lean alot more towards that team. I also like pitchers lifetime records against their opponent An example would be today's Mike Hampton against the current Reds pitchers, who hit a average .315 against him with a mere 16 k's in 143 at bats.

Thanks hope I helped,

Cyrus

 

[RAYMOND]

which teams are profitable at home or on the road, vs, lefthanders or vs, righthanders, in day games or in night games.

Keep in mind some of the winningest teams in the major leagues are a terrible betting proposition because the lines are so high.

They may have a great won/lost record and be leading the league in the standings, but if you bet on them consistently you'll LOSE MONEY.

[sport]
On the other hand, some teams that can barely manage a .500 record are fantastic gambling choices, because they're heavy underdogs whenever they take the field.

It's the same thing with starting pitchers. Big name starters are no bargain when you're have to lay 2 to 1 whenever they take the mound. But a relatively obscure hurler with a 8-8 record can be great to bet on if he's catching a fat underdog price in every start.

This is exactly the type of information you need to avoid a losing season.

 

[monkey]

I look at pitchers,bullpen rh vs left,at batting.

gl

 

[slopitch]

Standouts

Standouts

Games where the line seems to be set based on the teams reputation rather than the way they are playing now.
Yankees vs Jays/Yankees vs Boston are perfect examples

Slopitch

 

[MACH1]

When playing totals, I look at last 5 games for OFF. and Last 3 for Pitching. ( Both SP and BP ). Then break it down to Righty, lefty situations. Then if I can get Ump info favoring me, THen I go after it.

I'm sure some of these cappers do much more than I. Loophole, Roger, Barry CHow, play totals very well. They may add something else to the equation.

Nice thread, hope it helps some of us to make some CASH!!!

 

[jderrida]

While I am still rusty as I just started MLB finally. I like to wait about 1 month before jumping in.

I like totals the best, but how I cap the totals usually helps determine the team outcome as well. However, picking winners and losers is more difficult I find than totals.

Anyway, I usually never look at the standings of a team or rarely.

I like to look at three main factors:

1) batting averages and OB percentage of players/pitchers
2) Umpire stats
3) Weather and stadium conditions

Within each subcategory, I like to do the following:

1a) look at how the momentum/time of year players/pitchers are relatively weak or strong
1b) how important each player is to their team
1c) how many days/innings players/pitchers have played

2a) How the UMPS call strikes/balls
2b) How the UMPS perfom in NL/AL leagues

3a) Wind direction
3b) Humidity/heat
3c) Stadium dimensions

I typically play UNDS about 80% and DOGS 75%
I don't bet a game where I have to lay more than -140 or I will consider a RL

I know that I haven't been here a long time and it might take time to become a LOOPHOLE, but I do enjoy totals betting.

Well, I am off to NYC for the week, so enjoy fellow handicappers.


JD

 

[dude]

1st thing I do in every sports is make my own line.

2nd look at the vegas line for what I feel has value.

3rd cap the defence.

4th in baseball check umps, injury report, and weather.

5th what's the public on.

6th place bet, then check fellow MJ cappers.

Dude

 

[Escrow_Tum]

I like looking at a pitchers WHIP, how teams fare vs. Righties, lefties. I take bullpens into consideration (tonite dont' count).

Pitch counts, how long a road trip has been. Sometimes if I am wavering, I will wait a little longer to check lineups. I am starting to get more into the umpire thing. Used to like line movement, but don't think it is as strong an indicator in baseball. I do like anti-public or square looking games as well. And I will always ask myself for all the reasons a team will win, what can make them lose. More often than not I come up with more reasons for the L and take it into consideration. I also have a list of pitchers I will always bet against until further notice and ones I will always take my chances on (up to a certain price).

Where is Lima time when I need a quick 100??? Tanyon Sturtze made me some good prostitue money last year as did betting vs. the Padres on the road.

One guy I will keep fading this year is Freddy Garcia. He is a mere shell of himself, and he is a questionable character as well. Joel Pinero's ERA has been steadily climbing since he came into the league as well. Rocket's arm looks tired. Even though I love the Braves, I will fade Mike Hampton every chance I get. His mechanics are so screwed up it ain't even funny. I thought Uncle Leo could fix him, but it don't look that way yet. He walks too many guys and dont' strike out enough to make me want to back him.

I lick my chops any time Rick Helling is pitching.

I am rambling but here is a brief list


Against:

Helling
Garcia
Hampton
Wright CWS
Tomko
Rusch
Park
Quevedo
Cornejo he is getting better but 9K in 50 IP not good
Parque

For:

Matt Morris
Zito
Millwood
Mulder
Schmidt
Moyer
Woody Williams
Prior
Mussina


My early season results have not been great, but I do well in baseball by seasons end. When I get more time I will post plays again but I have been a good fade as of now.

 

[g-hawg]

Three things;

Pitching
Pitching
Pitching

 

[slvrblet]

ALL GREAT STUFF...PLEASE KEEP ADDING....EVERY VIEW IS A PLUS TO US ALL...THANKS...KEEP POSTING...

 

[ndnfan]

May add some more later, but for now.....On the righty-lefty stuff, if you can go deeper and actually look at the past history of the batter-pitcher matchups, you can get a better feel of how well a particular team will fair. For example, just because a team may be hitting say only .210 vs lefties for the season, doesn't mean they won't hit a lefty with a "high school" stuff. So if there's some previous history...check it out. Also, reverse it by looking at how the pitcher fairs vs right-handed or left-handed batters and check the regular starting lineup to see if that team's lineup is dominately right-handed or left-handed.

Also, a large part of pitching is mental. Check out the pressure numbers such as how they do with runners on, etc. Road, home will play along with that as well. Pitchers past history with Umps can be mental as well, but history and the Umpires past reputations are meaning less and less. Just take a look at the example Curt Schilling gave us the other day smashing one of those questec machines, and you'll get the hint. For those wondering why someone like a John Hirshbecks has 7 overs vs just 5 unders to go along with his low strike% of just 61.79% this season when the past 2 years his k% was around 64%.....that is the main reason. Questec is causing them to narrow the k-zone....so be careful with the Ump info and if you chart any of these guys, make sure you make note of the Umps that you're seeing changes with.....cause some umps that someone say a Greg Maddux loved in the past, are starting to become his enemy.

Check any unusual stuff with pitchers that happen in a game that isn't characteristic of them to their previous games, too much to list, but stuff like fb/gb ratio, walks per innings pitched, hits per innings pitched, pitchcounts.....list goes on and on.


Gotta get back to work....may post more later.

 

[USC Gamecock]

My favorite angle is playing a good (but not overpriced) pitcher vs. a team that (1) is hitting poorly, and (2) having trouble against whatever side the pitcher throws from (right or left).

I also think you can learn a lot by looking at how a team is batting vs. righties or lefties. However, you have to look deeper than just those generic stats. It's also good to check out home vs. away stats, umpire trends, day vs. night, etc.

Another one of my favorite angles is how a particular team does against a particular pitcher. A good example of this was last week when the Royals were +190 in Seattle going against Freddy Garcia. Well, I happened to notice that the meat of the Royals lineup has done very well in the past against Garcia, so I rolled the dice and luckily the trend remained true as the Roylas dropped either a 4 spot or 5 spot on him in the first inning and eventually took care of business. The logic here is that the team as a whole may be hitting poorly against lefties (or righties), but may be lighting up a particular pitcher even though he is a lefty (or righty). I guess we'll see if this trend remains true as Freddy is pitching again tonight in KC.

Another one of my favoite angles is a team's performance in the last several games. Baseball is a game of streaks (just ask the Yankees), so if you can catch a hot team (see Toronto), or go against a cold team (see Detroit in beginning of season), you can make some good money.

I apologize if this information has already been stated above, I just didn't have the time to read through the prior posts.

 

[boilermaker]

Pithching is what I look at the most. Both fot the season and last 3 starts. I look at innings pithed per start and consider in the bullpen. I always make my own lines both sides and totals. I also look at teams that are hot and not.In baseball value is the most important part. I hate laying a high price. Good Luck

 

[slvrblet]

JACK...IF YOU READ THIS IM SURE WE ARE ALL COURIOUS HOW YOU APPROACH A GAME...AFTER ALL YOU HAVE HAD YEARS OF EXPERIENCE AND YOUR ON A GREAT COMEBACK RIGHT NOW...

 

[heleanth]

I am not sure exactly how it should factored in, but think streaks, not much win\loss streaks, although they are important, but hitting\scoring streaks, fielding slumps and that type of thing can yield some great plays.

Thanks to all and to slvrblt for starting this interesting, informative thread.

 

[slvrblet]

SOMETIMES ITS A TEAM THAT WINS 10 STRAIGHT AND ITS THEIR TIME.......

 

[Junior44]

Excellent thread........a couple things here.

While lefty/righty matchups are an important factor, be careful in how you use it. I don't believe it can be generically and universally applied. You have to dig deeper (as ndnfan pointed out). One example is: while a team may not hit lefties very well, they may hit a CERTAIN pitcher well. Another example is that some lefties are MORE affective against right-handed hitters and vice-versa. In otherwords, lefty/righty matchups are a great starting point but try really digging into what actually causes the results rather than just the results themselves and be sure to look for anomalies.

Most of the basics have been covered here but something that I use to a great extent is a team's frame of mind. For example, if a team has lost 7 of 8 and they are playing the last game of a long road trip, they may just wanna get the hell outta there. Or a team that loses a game where the pitcher threw a hell of a game but the bats were silent. The bats may come out the next day with something to prove. Let's face it, baseball is a long season and the effort level day in and day out can dramatically vary. It's more than just saying "well........Team A is fired up!!"......If you dig around, you may be able to find some key emotional advantages in a given game. Maybe there is a promotion at the park that night and the crowd is going to be big and loud. Maybe the pitcher is pitching in his home town and his family is there. Maybe you have guys that are fighting for a roster spot that opened up due to injury. Little things like that can add value. I'm not suggesting that things like this should overrule sheer statistical data, but rather compliment it.

Baseball has a zillion variables to look at and you could litterly spend days analyzing one single game. The best advice is to spend a season or 2 experimenting with what works for you and what doesnt. Everybody has their own style and approach.