What is the difference bettween recreational and professional player?
- Thread starter Andrey
- Start date
from pinnaclesports perspective it is this:
Evolving from Casual to Professional
At PinnacleSports.com we categorise a professional player (or ?sharp?) as one who we expect to win over the long-term. How can we tell if any given player will be a consistent winner going forward? The most accurate way is to compare the odds a player received when they placed a bet with the closing price for that particular market.
If a player consistently beats our closing price at PinnacleSports.com, they are likely to be a long-term winner. Interestingly, we have found that this test is more indicative of a player?s future winning potential, than their historical win/loss record with the company.
For example, our closing Asian Handicap price on Manchester Utd. versus Man City in the recent Derby was (-1/2) 1.909, so if a customer played (-1/2) 1.962 earlier in the week - that was a sharp bet, regardless of whether the bet won or lost. When a player can anticipate the line movement and does this consistently over a series of 100 bets or more, that player is conclusively sharp, and likely to register substantial profits in the long run if applying the same approach.
What?s the quickest way to identify a player that needs to adjust their style of betting? Simple - one who plays at a ?bad? price. If other online bookmakers offered a closing price on Man City at (+1/2) 1.869 and a player bet that price, instead of taking the superior odds of (+1/2) 2.02 available at PinnacleSports.com, he is almost certainly not sharp. Even if he has been winning thus far, that player will probably lose over time.
Line Shopping
You can use this information to your advantage by adopting the process known as "line? or comparison shopping. Not only is it second nature to sharp players, but it is one of the easiest ways for any player to increase their potential winnings by always playing at the best available price. This is achieved by actively seeking best prices through odds comparison sites, and having accounts at multiple online sports books so that you no longer remain a captive to the high margins of traditional bookmakers. Ideally you should hold a portfolio of accounts including a betting exchange, one or two reduced commission bookmakers such as PinnacleSports.com together with a couple of traditional books, where you?ll find inflated favourite prices and most likely attractive odds on the underdog.
The objective when comparison shopping is to shrink the margins on both sides of any given event by as much as possible. This will allow you to be in the ideal position to lay 1.962 on the favourite at one bookie and take back better than even money at another book, guaranteeing a profit no matter which team or player wins.
=========
A quick and dirty definition of a "Square" or public bettor is one that likes to play the favorite at any price. For these bettors, 2005 has been a good season. On the year, if you played every favorite against the spread you would have gone an impressive 85-66-4. If you played them straight-up on the moneyline, you would be hitting at a monstrous 114-40 clip (compared to an expectation of about 100-50). Underdog bettors finally had a winning weekend last week going 9-7 ATS, but this has been of little consolation.
In all my years of bookmaking, I cannot remember a single year where public bettors following the favorites cleaned up like this. There were plenty of years when dog players did well. In fact, that used to be a basic betting strategy ? bet on any team that is "bad". So what happened? Where did all the good dogs go?
One possible explanation is that the sports betting market has finally become efficient. In the early years of sports betting, most of the bets placed were by recreational players and even large bettors were fairly unsophisticated. A vast majority of bets were on favorites and ?overs? no matter what the line. Linesmakers could set the odds on "feel" and would not worry too much about how accurate they were as most players were winning fewer than 50% of their wagers betting inflated lines.
The betting markets had a reality check in 1984 with the beginning of the first well-funded computer group. Billy Walter?s group was the first to blast the markets with statistically driven computer models. Although its members eventually went their separate ways, it gave others a proven way to beat sports ? the computer.
Since that time, the Internet has revolutionized sports betting in several ways. First, the ease that you can place a bet on the Internet has created a true market in sports betting. For instance, at Pinnacle Sports you can bet online for as little as a dollar up to $30,000 on a football game and pay 60% less vigorish on NFL sides than at other bookmakers. As the sports betting world behaves more like an efficient market, a book that offers a price that is off-market will absorb a huge position.
Second, the Internet has made information far more accessible to bettors. Both updated team news and gambling methodology has become far more prevalent with knowledge shared. In fact, it?s now much easier to obtain detailed information on a sports team than on most blue-chip stocks. As a result, we are seeing more and more small computer groups (many led by former stock traders) coming forward and betting their numbers.
Perhaps the biggest effect of the new sports betting market is that "Joe Square" now has a fighting chance to win. He can play his favorites and overs at will, knowing that the computer groups are keeping the numbers honest. Perhaps the influence of sharp money is so strong that the market has now over adjusted? Are favorites now under priced? If you were playing the underdogs this year, you would certainly think so.
Consider the Indianapolis Colts who?ve been an amazing football investment at 7-3 ATS this year. When the Colts cover the number, it?s usually not even close. If you bet Indy every game this year and gave up an extra 2 points they would still be 7-3 ATS. Are the Colts under-priced? If you think they are, you can leverage your opinion by backing the Colts and ?selling? half-points to receive a larger payoff.
At Pinnacle Sports, we allow bettors to adjust the spread on any NFL game with our drop-down point spread menu. For example, the price on the Carolina Panthers is -4 -104 versus the Bills. If your analysis suggests that the Panthers should crush the Bills, you could lay more points at a better price: -4.5 at +100, -5 at +104, or -5.5 at +108. Sell three half-points and Pinnacle Sports is paying juice to you on nearly any game on the card!
Another time you might want to use point buying/selling is when the market price on a game has moved, but a sports book or your local bookie is slow to change the number. Any time a spread or total has moved at least 1.5 points you can scalp that number with Pinnacle Sports. There may even be scalping opportunities against your regular book available now on our featured games below where we?ve seen some early line movement.
Evolving from Casual to Professional
At PinnacleSports.com we categorise a professional player (or ?sharp?) as one who we expect to win over the long-term. How can we tell if any given player will be a consistent winner going forward? The most accurate way is to compare the odds a player received when they placed a bet with the closing price for that particular market.
If a player consistently beats our closing price at PinnacleSports.com, they are likely to be a long-term winner. Interestingly, we have found that this test is more indicative of a player?s future winning potential, than their historical win/loss record with the company.
For example, our closing Asian Handicap price on Manchester Utd. versus Man City in the recent Derby was (-1/2) 1.909, so if a customer played (-1/2) 1.962 earlier in the week - that was a sharp bet, regardless of whether the bet won or lost. When a player can anticipate the line movement and does this consistently over a series of 100 bets or more, that player is conclusively sharp, and likely to register substantial profits in the long run if applying the same approach.
What?s the quickest way to identify a player that needs to adjust their style of betting? Simple - one who plays at a ?bad? price. If other online bookmakers offered a closing price on Man City at (+1/2) 1.869 and a player bet that price, instead of taking the superior odds of (+1/2) 2.02 available at PinnacleSports.com, he is almost certainly not sharp. Even if he has been winning thus far, that player will probably lose over time.
Line Shopping
You can use this information to your advantage by adopting the process known as "line? or comparison shopping. Not only is it second nature to sharp players, but it is one of the easiest ways for any player to increase their potential winnings by always playing at the best available price. This is achieved by actively seeking best prices through odds comparison sites, and having accounts at multiple online sports books so that you no longer remain a captive to the high margins of traditional bookmakers. Ideally you should hold a portfolio of accounts including a betting exchange, one or two reduced commission bookmakers such as PinnacleSports.com together with a couple of traditional books, where you?ll find inflated favourite prices and most likely attractive odds on the underdog.
The objective when comparison shopping is to shrink the margins on both sides of any given event by as much as possible. This will allow you to be in the ideal position to lay 1.962 on the favourite at one bookie and take back better than even money at another book, guaranteeing a profit no matter which team or player wins.
=========
A quick and dirty definition of a "Square" or public bettor is one that likes to play the favorite at any price. For these bettors, 2005 has been a good season. On the year, if you played every favorite against the spread you would have gone an impressive 85-66-4. If you played them straight-up on the moneyline, you would be hitting at a monstrous 114-40 clip (compared to an expectation of about 100-50). Underdog bettors finally had a winning weekend last week going 9-7 ATS, but this has been of little consolation.
In all my years of bookmaking, I cannot remember a single year where public bettors following the favorites cleaned up like this. There were plenty of years when dog players did well. In fact, that used to be a basic betting strategy ? bet on any team that is "bad". So what happened? Where did all the good dogs go?
One possible explanation is that the sports betting market has finally become efficient. In the early years of sports betting, most of the bets placed were by recreational players and even large bettors were fairly unsophisticated. A vast majority of bets were on favorites and ?overs? no matter what the line. Linesmakers could set the odds on "feel" and would not worry too much about how accurate they were as most players were winning fewer than 50% of their wagers betting inflated lines.
The betting markets had a reality check in 1984 with the beginning of the first well-funded computer group. Billy Walter?s group was the first to blast the markets with statistically driven computer models. Although its members eventually went their separate ways, it gave others a proven way to beat sports ? the computer.
Since that time, the Internet has revolutionized sports betting in several ways. First, the ease that you can place a bet on the Internet has created a true market in sports betting. For instance, at Pinnacle Sports you can bet online for as little as a dollar up to $30,000 on a football game and pay 60% less vigorish on NFL sides than at other bookmakers. As the sports betting world behaves more like an efficient market, a book that offers a price that is off-market will absorb a huge position.
Second, the Internet has made information far more accessible to bettors. Both updated team news and gambling methodology has become far more prevalent with knowledge shared. In fact, it?s now much easier to obtain detailed information on a sports team than on most blue-chip stocks. As a result, we are seeing more and more small computer groups (many led by former stock traders) coming forward and betting their numbers.
Perhaps the biggest effect of the new sports betting market is that "Joe Square" now has a fighting chance to win. He can play his favorites and overs at will, knowing that the computer groups are keeping the numbers honest. Perhaps the influence of sharp money is so strong that the market has now over adjusted? Are favorites now under priced? If you were playing the underdogs this year, you would certainly think so.
Consider the Indianapolis Colts who?ve been an amazing football investment at 7-3 ATS this year. When the Colts cover the number, it?s usually not even close. If you bet Indy every game this year and gave up an extra 2 points they would still be 7-3 ATS. Are the Colts under-priced? If you think they are, you can leverage your opinion by backing the Colts and ?selling? half-points to receive a larger payoff.
At Pinnacle Sports, we allow bettors to adjust the spread on any NFL game with our drop-down point spread menu. For example, the price on the Carolina Panthers is -4 -104 versus the Bills. If your analysis suggests that the Panthers should crush the Bills, you could lay more points at a better price: -4.5 at +100, -5 at +104, or -5.5 at +108. Sell three half-points and Pinnacle Sports is paying juice to you on nearly any game on the card!
Another time you might want to use point buying/selling is when the market price on a game has moved, but a sports book or your local bookie is slow to change the number. Any time a spread or total has moved at least 1.5 points you can scalp that number with Pinnacle Sports. There may even be scalping opportunities against your regular book available now on our featured games below where we?ve seen some early line movement.
- Dec 8, 2005
- 2,963
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It states above what they consider a 'Sharp' or 'Professional' action.
At PinnacleSports.com we categorise a professional player (or ?sharp?) as one who we expect to win over the long-term
If a player consistently beats our closing price at PinnacleSports.com, they are likely to be a long-term winner. Interestingly, we have found that this test is more indicative of a player?s future winning potential, than their historical win/loss record with the company
When a book has only recreational action instead of Professional, they normally do not want large wagers or a constant winner.
I have seen a couple of people get their accounts locked and asked to bet elsewhere at some recreational sportsbooks because of their large bets and winnings.
- Aug 28, 2005
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