What time is it?

selkirk

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Jul 16, 1999
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Okay, that is a stupid title for any thread, but often it matter in the market. It at times will favour some sectors and ignore, hate others. and then it all changes.

for example the past three years the best sector in Canada was the reit, and utilities, people chased yield, stocks that would yield 8%+ (reits) or well over 4-5% utilities have been bid up and up, almost to the level they are now trading like high flying growth stocks.

here are some examples.

1. ENB (US/Cdn. ) $39.86 Enbridge is a great pipeline stock own it in a drip/spp plan, for over a decade almost two. yield was 8% and it grows the div.

however though the div should continue to grow and nothing wrong with 2.83% yield used always give 4%, also pe is 28.

now they should be able to grow over 5 years but you are paying for that growth.

would rate it a hold and a sell (well some of positon over $40.) great company just not cheap.

2. TRP starting talking about this company at 18 and well mostly at 28 and up, mainly liked the yield, bought most of positon at 28-34.

very good pipeline theme here, 3.85% growth but also trades PE 23, there is growth but slower than enb. now at 45cdn. (tradesUScdn.)
another hold buy below 40.

3. Fortis cdn. utility, started a thread called investing is easy, well sometimes, believe this was 24-25, plus the yield were looking for 10%
now at 33.21 yield 3.61%

good long term hold they have increased their div for the past 52 years, but who is counting. still they will grow very slowly, a hold.


Reit. the reits looking at in cnd. now barely yield 5%, also if rates do go up they will be hurt by them also it the economy tanks, limited growth and small to no div increases for the most part.

the sector is a buy on a 10% pullback, if it comes.

THE INGNORED

oil and gas stocks, stocks like cnq and SU are trading at around 10X earnings and as if oil is already at 70 maybe it gets there, but no one wants an oil.

jr. oils, that is even worse the stock I profiled here top 3, went from 3.50-3.80 to 4.30 then hello 3.

also stocks like legacy oil and gas toronto went below 6 now at 6.80. still cheap.
Athabasca went to 10.50 now 12.60 still cheap, note sold puts at 10 so mostly biased on this name staying above 10 in the next four five months, premiums were/ are excellent.

golds, okay the sr. golds suck, but they trade at 10X pe there historical is 25-30 for many years. not sure if they deserve that but any rebound in gold and these should at least hold there own.

yes forgetting about tech companies that are growing profits and trading at 10-15X earnings but only so much room.

thanks
selkirk
 

selkirk

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more

more

ag stocks

Agrium but you could pick a few others, growing at less than 10X earnings, these are very volatile, and often depend on the crops or lack of them, still these can trade 15X or higher when people want them, clean balance sheet, only yeilds 1% but that was double, also buying back stock, and will increase the div, in time.

base metal stocks, tck.b tck also has been hammered, now if the world starts go down more these will just drop like a stone, but pricing in a great deal of bad news. and new mine production is not happening... sounds like a good gamble, with a small amount....

thanks
selkirk
 

selkirk

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okay reits and utilities are basically flat,
oils and golds have had a nice run.

oil and gold has moved up but they were also very cheap. ag stocks have also had for the most part a good move, escpecially nitorgen, potash seems to lag, and that will continue in the future.

would stay in these sectors until the run was over, not surprised about the move upward, but did not think the market last week would go up that much on the news.

ATH on Toronto went up on good news, and partnership deal, would stay in the jr. oils, should rally more.

stay away from Iron ore, hope can buy LIF.un (on Toronto) cheaper, great company and great way to play iron ore, and steel, but scared of the surpluses...so will wait.

note: ATH (toronto) would not be a considered and jr.

thanks
selkirk
 

selkirk

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BJ I have never owned this utility, or power producer, preferred the pipelines Transcanada, and enbridge, and fortis (on Toronto), and altagas ala (toronto)if it drop, and,...probably a long list.

first some facts : in the coming 2nd quarter they expect to lose 18-20 million .10-12 a share. they have energy trading losses and one time losses on Centralia and sundance plants.

also power contract for Centralia has been redone, good it is done but probably at lower prices. Trading gains will be lower also going forward.

there is also a question of wether it will cut the dividend as the stock yields twice as much as its peer group. one thing that might save it is that many shareholders take the dividend as more shares in a drip/spp plan.

was asked about TA when a couple of months ago, when it was around 16.50-17, thought upside was limited ie. 17-18 and downside 14. if they cut the div, would be more downside.
the person positon was not big, told them would rate it a hold would not buy more.

would hold, however if they cut the div would watch it closely and also if it broke 14.

should make money this year and next, overall, also did another acquisition would like to see how that plays out.

hope this helps.
note: the resources and gold have done well, will continue to hang on...for now.

thanks
selkirk
 

selkirk

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no problem BJ, own enb, trp, fts (Toronto), and small amount of altagas will buy more if it drops.

So it is still time to run with the BULLs, every central bank wants to play ball, the Spanish are going to have to ask for a bailout package and the market may rally on the news.

however China is a concern, some economics indicators are troublesome, also the recent unrest between Japan, (no war) but can be a seen to divert the population, can be a concern.

A bigger concern is the prices of Iron ore in China and the stockpiles, ie. steel. they are very low.
so Europe, but you can add China to the list.

so run with the bulls, but over the next few weeks or so build up cash, and short term bonds, preferreds.... with some of the profits.

thanks
selkirk
 

ssd

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Aug 2, 2000
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Selkirk:

I am short Euro thru Euro/Usd in spot forex.
Small short position on Aud/Usd

I am long gold - physical holdings as well as paper long

I am long silver - physical ( I have been buying since it was $6)

Looking to buy some put options on

EEV
EWP
EWI
FXI

Obviously, I am bearish on equities and bullish on PM (as well as other commodities)

Any thoughts?

Thanks
 

selkirk

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Jul 16, 1999
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SSD the puts on emerging markets, Spain and Italy are interestng. have gold, I am no and never will be a gold bug, but have been in gold since 2008 thought gold would break 1000.

barrick gold has been flat, yamana has done well except they have high amount of copper exposure, good for now, but if the market is bad then will get slammed.

for the puts will be looking for protection, vix calls, and puts on stocks, for example puts on the cdn. banks, and XIU toronto index is very very cheap.

my belief if these items do blow up there would be a 10-20% correction in most stocks and indexes.
so looking for any puts that may be impacted by a pullback. I am waiting, find that if the market does goes higher then puts, insurance will be cheap, slowly buy in....

for the record believe italy and spain could solve their problems, but it is hard to balance the budgets for most countries.

gold a good hedge also...have calls on all of my holdings,

thanks
selkirk
 

ssd

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Aug 2, 2000
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Thanks, selkirk.

Will be looking for put options expiry in December or later considering Europe has put off anymore bailout talks essentially until after US election.

Trying to figure out on PM's / commodities if we will get a dip in price based on USD strength before the next ramp higher.

Good luck on all of your positions.
 
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