What we know

[talos]

There is a term that describes this Clipper game. Playoff revenge.
What we know here is that in every game that Memphis has lost they have not covered the spread. And we know that Memphis played a team that offered no resistance. Simple fact Cousins was benched after 18 minutes and 11 seconds and he is the heart of that team. And we know that they are playing worst 4 in 6 and that they are looking at a game in 2 days with GS. and we know that the Clippers had 2 days off played and did not cover vs Brooklyn and now had another day off and that so far this season they have not had 2 ATS losses.
Clippers minus 9

 

[talos]

What we know is that i wish I had waited as the line is now 8.
Refs in game
REFEREES

Mark Ayotte - Profile

General
Jersey Number 56 Avg. Home Score 109.0
Games Officiated 6 Avg. Road Score 102.3
Home Team ATS 3-3-0 Home Avg. Margin 6.7
Home Team W/L 4-2 Avg. Total Score 211.3
Over/Under vs. the Total
Overall 4-2
184.5 or less 0-0
185-194.5 1-1
195-204.5 2-1
205+ 1-0
Favorite or Underdog
Spread Home Fav Home Dog
0-4.5 1-1 1-1
5-9.5 1-0 0-0
10+ 0-1 0-0



Recent Games with Memphis
Date vs. Score Line O/U Mar MEM FG Opp FG Reb
04/17/13 UTA W 86-70 W -4.5 U 178.5 11.5 34/84 25/78 57-47
04/05/13 @LAL L 84-86 P 2 U 190.0 0.0 38/86 34/74 36-43
03/13/13 @LAC W 96-85 W 6 U 185.0 17.0 37/68 31/72 31-34
02/27/13 DAL W 90-84 L -7.5 U 187.5 -1.5 29/78 33/76 46-35
02/10/13 MIN W 105-88 W -8.5 O 183.0 8.5 41/79 34/69 36-33
01/25/13 BK W 101-77 W -4 O 177.0 20.0 47/90 29/71 45-37
12/01/12 @SA L 95-99 (OT) W 6 U 196.5 2.0 36/99 37/89 52-48
02/20/12 @HOU L 93-97 L 3 O 186.5 -1.0 38/79 35/74 38-36
02/08/12 MIN W 85-80 L -7.5 U 190.0 -2.5 35/94 31/79 59-47
03/30/11 GS W 110-91 W -10.5 U 209.5 8.5 48/85 39/83 44-41
Recent Games with L.A. Clippers
Date vs. Score Line O/U Mar LAC FG Opp FG Reb
10/31/13 GS W 126-115 W -6 O 205.5 5.0 42/85 40/76 44-33
10/15/13 @PHO W 102-96 W -3.5 O 192.5 2.5 39/74 37/80 42-34
10/07/13 @POR W 89-81 W -2.5 U 192.5 5.5 30/81 28/78 44-50
03/27/13 @NO W 105-91 W -5.5 O 188.0 8.5 34/73 35/71 35-35
03/13/13 MEM L 85-96 L -6 U 185.0 -17.0 31/72 37/68 34-31
01/19/13 WAS W 94-87 L -12 U 194.0 -5.0 34/93 32/77 58-43
12/08/12 PHO W 117-99 W -10 O 200.5 8.0 48/93 36/78 41-37
10/24/12 LAL W 97-91 W -4.5 U 192.5 1.5 37/79 32/68 38-36
03/12/12 BOS L 85-94 L -5.5 U 185.5 -14.5 31/83 33/67 45-31
03/05/12 @MIN L 94-95 W 3 U 197.0 2.0 34/84 32/80 52-43

COLLAPSE

John Goble - Profile

General
Jersey Number 30 Avg. Home Score 104.1
Games Officiated 8 Avg. Road Score 96.0
Home Team ATS 5-3-0 Home Avg. Margin 8.1
Home Team W/L 7-1 Avg. Total Score 200.1
Over/Under vs. the Total
Overall 3-5
184.5 or less 0-0
185-194.5 1-1
195-204.5 1-3
205+ 1-1
Favorite or Underdog
Spread Home Fav Home Dog
0-4.5 2-0 3-0
5-9.5 0-0 0-0
10+ 0-3 0-0



Recent Games with Memphis
Date vs. Score Line O/U Mar MEM FG Opp FG Reb
11/02/13 @DAL L 99-111 L 3 O 194.5 -9.0 37/87 32/80 51-45
10/25/13 HOU L 73-92 L -2.5 U 197.5 -21.5 22/69 36/85 44-56
10/07/13 @CHI L 87-106 L 1.5 O 183.0 -17.5 31/72 35/74 31-43
05/05/13 @OKC L 91-93 W 3.5 U 186.5 1.5 35/82 33/80 41-43
04/20/13 @LAC L 91-112 L 5.5 O 178.5 -15.5 33/71 41/74 23-47
04/12/13 @HOU W 82-78 W 2.5 U 195.0 6.5 29/83 23/74 44-51
01/23/13 LAL W 106-93 W -3.5 O 187.5 9.5 47/96 31/73 52-34
01/16/13 @SA L 82-103 L 5.5 U 187.0 -15.5 29/69 44/76 32-33
12/12/12 @PHO L 80-82 L -6.5 U 195.0 -8.5 33/73 34/89 40-44
05/05/12 @LAC L 86-87 W 3 U 187.0 2.0 26/65 33/70 40-35
Recent Games with L.A. Clippers
Date vs. Score Line O/U Mar LAC FG Opp FG Reb
10/18/13 POR L 84-94 L -5.5 U 191.0 -15.5 29/82 28/73 38-56
04/20/13 MEM W 112-91 W -5.5 O 178.5 15.5 41/74 33/71 47-23
03/23/13 BK W 101-95 L -7.5 O 190.5 -1.5 37/79 34/74 41-33
01/05/13 GS W 115-89 W -6 O 202.0 20.0 47/90 32/72 41-30
11/26/12 NO L 98-105 L -13 O 189.0 -20.0 37/79 36/71 32-36
05/05/12 MEM W 87-86 L -3 U 187.0 -2.0 33/70 26/65 35-40
04/09/12 @MEM L 85-94 L 4.5 U 186.5 -4.5 34/84 37/74 36-48
03/31/12 UTA W 105-96 W -5.5 O 192.5 3.5 39/72 35/77 35-38
02/06/12 @ORL W 107-102 (OT) W -1 O 191.5 4.0 36/82 40/86 46-37
01/01/12 POR W 93-88 W -3 U 199.5 2.0 36/75 33/78 38-46

COLLAPSE

Bill Kennedy - Profile

General
Jersey Number 55 Avg. Home Score 100.2
Games Officiated 8 Avg. Road Score 92.2
Home Team ATS 4-4-0 Home Avg. Margin 8.0
Home Team W/L 7-1 Avg. Total Score 192.5
Over/Under vs. the Total
Overall 3-5
184.5 or less 0-0
185-194.5 1-2
195-204.5 1-3
205+ 1-0
Favorite or Underdog
Spread Home Fav Home Dog
0-4.5 1-1 0-0
5-9.5 3-3 0-0
10+ 0-0 0-0



Recent Games with Memphis
Date vs. Score Line O/U Mar MEM FG Opp FG Reb
11/09/13 GS W 108-90 W -2 O 191.5 16.0 42/79 33/78 44-33
05/21/13 @SA L 89-93 (OT) W 5.5 O 180.5 1.5 33/97 36/83 60-46
05/05/13 @OKC L 91-93 W 3.5 U 186.5 1.5 35/82 33/80 41-43
04/20/13 @LAC L 91-112 L 5.5 O 178.5 -15.5 33/71 41/74 23-47
02/10/13 MIN W 105-88 W -8.5 O 183.0 8.5 41/79 34/69 36-33
01/23/13 LAL W 106-93 W -3.5 O 187.5 9.5 47/96 31/73 52-34
01/04/13 POR L 84-86 L -8 U 182.0 -10.0 32/81 33/81 45-41
11/05/12 UTA W 103-94 W -5 O 195.5 4.0 38/91 40/90 51-42
05/13/12 LAC L 72-82 L -7.5 U 176.5 -17.5 25/77 30/78 44-46
04/07/12 DAL W 94-89 W -4 U 183.5 1.0 31/80 34/73 37-42
Recent Games with L.A. Clippers
Date vs. Score Line O/U Mar LAC FG Opp FG Reb
11/04/13 HOU W 137-118 W -5 O 211.0 14.0 49/94 41/82 38-46
10/19/13 DEN W 118-111 (OT) W -2.5 O 193.5 4.5 42/81 43/87 37-45
10/15/13 @PHO W 102-96 W -3.5 O 192.5 2.5 39/74 37/80 42-34
04/20/13 MEM W 112-91 W -5.5 O 178.5 15.5 41/74 33/71 47-23
04/03/13 PHO W 126-101 W -16.5 O 201.0 8.5 52/93 35/77 37-41
02/03/13 @BOS L 104-106 L -1 O 183.5 -3.0 40/79 36/72 41-29
12/25/12 DEN W 112-100 W -6.5 O 204.5 5.5 45/93 40/80 45-42
12/01/12 SAC W 116-81 W -12.5 O 196.5 22.5 47/86 29/76 41-40
11/19/12 @SA W 92-87 W 4.5 U 199.0 9.5 40/85 29/82 52-42
05/13/12 @MEM W 82-72 W 7.5 U 176.5 17.5 30/78 25/77 46-44

COLLAPSE

 

[talos]

Clippers 21-9 ATS with them is not bad.
Currently thinking half unit increase with new spread and using them in some ml parlay as home teams are 18-4 with these refs

In Brooklyn game refs are 4-15 ATS for home team.
Dallas game refs 13-4 over.
Philadelphia has gone over in all 4 road games and 8-3 over for season. May have to hit this one.
3 of those road games went over this number and the fourth hit 211.
Dallas at home 2-1 over. Dallas this season 7-3 over
Denver at OKC Denver away with these refs 13-6 ATS but refs like OKC as well
Refs in Chicago home team is 18-4 SU but ATS moderately bad for home team. This game interests me as Chicago has major look a heads to Denver and Portland. Bobcats not a great team but off home lloss---. Need to think here.
Might use GS in parlay . Tough game. Utah somehow has covered 3 in a row but has no real interest in wins i believe

 

[talos]

Usually look at Covers top NBA cappers. Rarely helps but good for a laugh
Top percentage 71.74% picks

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Denver - 8:00 PM ET Oklahoma City -9 500
Oklahoma City -
Philadelphia - 8:30 PM ET Philadelphia +12.5 500
Dallas -
Golden State - 9:00 PM ET Golden State -9 500
Utah -
Memphis - 10:30 PM ET L.A. Clippers -8.5 500
L.A. Clippers -

69.57%

Game Score Status Pick Amount
Denver - 8:00 PM ET Oklahoma City -9 500
Oklahoma City - Under 210.5 500
Philadelphia - 8:30 PM ET Dallas -12.5 500
Dallas - Under 214 500
Golden State - 9:00 PM ET Utah +9 500
Utah - Over 195.5 500
Memphis - 10:30 PM ET Memphis +8.5 500
L.A. Clippers - Over 202 500

 

[talos]

Apparently it is likely I am wrong about the Clipper game.
This is the line movement at Pinnacle
Over/Under
11/17/13 4:22:37 PM
-8.5
(Open)
-110

202
(Open)
-113
11/18/13 8:12:35 AM
-8.5
100

200.5
-105
11/18/13 8:22:36 AM
-8
-107

200.5
-113
11/18/13 8:32:35 AM
-8
-107

199.5
-105
11/18/13 8:52:36 AM
-8
-105

199.5
-105
11/18/13 10:22:37 AM
-8
-105

199.5
-108
11/18/13 10:42:36 AM
-8
-110

199.5
-108
11/18/13 11:02:37 AM
-8.5
-105

199.5
-108
11/18/13 11:22:38 AM
-8
-113

199.5
-108
11/18/13 11:42:37 AM
-8
-113

198
-105
11/18/13 12:02:37 PM
-8
-113

198
-107
11/18/13 12:22:37 PM
-8.5
-102

198
-107
11/18/13 12:42:37 PM
-8.5
-102

198
-106



Pinnacle has acquired a big position on Memphis and they are the best Iin the world and are betting big money. I am getting off.

 

[T]

Apparently it is likely I am wrong about the Clipper game.
This is the line movement at Pinnacle
Over/Under
11/17/13 4:22:37 PM
-8.5
(Open)
-110

202
(Open)
-113
11/18/13 8:12:35 AM
-8.5
100

200.5
-105
11/18/13 8:22:36 AM
-8
-107

200.5
-113
11/18/13 8:32:35 AM
-8
-107

199.5
-105
11/18/13 8:52:36 AM
-8
-105

199.5
-105
11/18/13 10:22:37 AM
-8
-105

199.5
-108
11/18/13 10:42:36 AM
-8
-110

199.5
-108
11/18/13 11:02:37 AM
-8.5
-105

199.5
-108
11/18/13 11:22:38 AM
-8
-113

199.5
-108
11/18/13 11:42:37 AM
-8
-113

198
-105
11/18/13 12:02:37 PM
-8
-113

198
-107
11/18/13 12:22:37 PM
-8.5
-102

198
-107
11/18/13 12:42:37 PM
-8.5
-102

198
-106



Pinnacle has acquired a big position on Memphis and they are the best Iin the world and are betting big money. I am getting off.

Please explain this last line ? Pinny has acquired a big position on Memphis ? Because they don't make bets. They are biggest online worldwide sportsbook taking bets from large bettors. They move lines according to wagers placed ???

 

[talos]

Unfortunately Covers has reduced the number of books they are tracking in their line history for each game so Pinnacle is no longer there and Betfair who i believe had a 9.5 up all last night while Pinnacle was quietly getting the position.
Bottom line the large books use top cappers and will take positions if they like a side as they are gambling laying no vig while the public is paying vig. Has seen this steadily over many years dating back to Joe Lupo and the Stardust. My sides hit around 57-58 %. Pinnacle hits a much better percentage and I will either bet with them or just get off the game. GL