When bad teams win

[Valuist]

You hear that such and such team will have to "letdown" because they beat so and so and weren't supposed to. Can bad teams let down? I don't think so. Think about it; to truly let down, you have to be good in the first place. If Arizona beats Philly on the last play of the game but gets dusted the next week was it a letdown? I would argue that Arizona isn't a very good team anyways so the loss wouldn't be unexpected. A true letdown to me would be lets say Oklahoma struggles to beat Kansas, maybe something like 23-10 (21 pt line) a week after beating
Texas in a huge game. I think bad teams can use an upset win as a stepping stone to improved performance because they gain confidence. Current form is still one of the, if not the most, important angles in handicapping.

 

[NJO]

"I think bad teams can use an upset win as a stepping stone to improved performance because they gain confidence"

I believe in this in the NFL, but in college I think bad teams spend all week partying, thanking people for their support, getting on a few more coeds than usual, etc. in celebration of their victory and new-found hero status.

This equals a bad effort the following week, generally speaking. A taskmaster college coach can make a difference here, but I generally like to go against average or worse college teams off of an upset, particularly when they are laying points as faves the next week.

 

[Valuist]

Yes, I think there is some truth to your theory differentiating colleges and pros. I definitely believe strongly in current form in the pros. Obviously, college players are not as stable and probably would be less likely to maintain good form.

 

[kcwolf]

Valuist:

First off, welcome to the forums and making some solid contributions.

Positive and well thought out contributions our starting to become your forte. Keep it up!

kcwolf

On a side note, and I probably should post this under college foots, HC Terry Allen is on his last leg at Kansas. He road the laurels at Northern Iowa (coaching Warner).

A real "powerhouse" that gave him a ticket to the Big 12. No control over the players he has now recuited.

 

[Valuist]

I should've qualified this by saying beating another bad team does not count. Monday Nights game was hardly Ariz beating Philly.