WHEN DOES ENOUGH BECOME TOO MUCH? by Nick Douglas

MadJack

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WHEN DOES ENOUGH BECOME TOO MUCH?

I've had days, and I'm sure most of you have as well, where you look back as you go to bed and see nothing but a mosaic of box scores, channel flipping and bet tickets in the rearview mirror. It is especially prevalent during football season but it happens other times as well. You wake up early, pour yourself some Fruity Pebbles and get to work on the 11 a.m. EST games, then the 1 p.m. EST games, then the 4:30 p.m. EST games and so on and so forth. Day bleeds into night and when the Hawaii game goes final it nearly take a degree in statistics to determine if you actually won or lost money on the day.

Depending on how one's time is used on these marathon days, the spectrum of wise gambling can range from razor sharp to totally half assed. Those who handicap just by looking at lines and picking winners and then determine bet amounts by how much money they need to catch up on at any given time are lost causes. No need to advise them in this column because countless thousands of words on this site have already been written in appempting to save them. What is something to be concerned with, however, is the people who actually take their time and research games thoroughly. At what point in a marathon day does one reach burnout, and how do you know when to call it a day and leave possible wagers on the table?

Using myself as an example, I generally try for a two hour limit. I have found that when I spend over two hours handicapping, I get punchy in a way similar to a college student on an all nighter. Doubts become raised at good plays, shady plays begin to look stronger and sooner or later it seems almost every game can be justified either as a play or no play. I just end up losing any direction I had at the start of the day and I find myself completely ignoring any standard of dollar amounts or number of plays I may have set for myself going into the day.

Two hours may sound like a small number, or it may sound incredibly large. My day is actually longer than two hours because I try to spend a number of hours actually watching games to try to pick up notes that I can use for future handicapping. The two hours is just a straight research number. The point is that each handicapper should get familiar with themselves (no, not in that way you perverts) and understand where the upper thresholds of research time lie.

Too little research on games is obviously one of the bigger reasons that so many gamblers lose money, but too much time spend processing data can also become counterproductive. There is no shame in passing a few games just because your time limit for the day expired and there are unresearched games on the table. A far more important objective should be to keep yourself healthy psychologically by limiting research to a reasonable amount of time.
 

Spock

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we do read them. In case I have not mentioned before I think you write teriffic and I make it a point to guild people to read the articles by you and Nolan among others.

Keep up the great work.

Cheers !!!
Spock
 

yyz

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This business sucks!

It drove me nuts, and took far too much of my time. What reward is there for having a game down to the nuts, and watching a series of events unfold at the end of the game that fuhk you?

You can't handicap that! These events are not "few and far between", either. They happen day in, and day out. Do they ballance out? Do you "win some, and lose some"? Yes, I guess you do, but it plays with your head!

I will admit, that I spent too much time doing handicapping. I did not over anylize things, but just looked at too many games. One guy can't pour through all the information that he needs to, in order to have the knowledge he needs to make a sound wager.

......And don't even think about missing a days worth of data! You need to do this shit 24/7, and HOPE things go your way!


When I won, I felt sharp, and wanted to keep going. When I was losing, I had self loathing, and needed to prove I could win. This, too, hurts your ability.

This is a hard way to make a go of it, and that is why so many guys have the "answers", but no one wants to ask them the "questions".
 

buddy

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"One guy can't pour through all the information that he needs to, in order to have the knowledge he needs...."

yyz,

Would you agree that different handicapping methods use different types of information?

Would you then agree some handicapping methods are more effective than others? (The only way to know this is to monitor a sampling of games for each handicapping method or handicapping angle.)

If different handicapping methods use different types of information, would you agree some methods or angles can sort through and reach a conclusion faster than others?

Would you agree that if you stumbled upon a handicapping method which resulted in a minimum of handicapping time and effort, yet resulted in a very high ratio of winning selections (maybe even 100 %!), that it would be worth your while?

Now let's take it one step further...

Would you agree that handicapping COULD BECOME FUN, IF...

you stumbled upon a handicapping method which resulted in a minimum of time and effort, produced a very high ratio of winning selections (maybe even 100%) and all of the winning selections were solid covers?

Granted, it's a bit like solving Rubik's Cube, but Rubik had the answer.
 
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