when in doubt buy a pizza and a helicopter

[selkirk]

did a few trades, a most were some covered calls, and got stopped out of some energy and base metal names.

will go over some of them later but would like to highlight the last three trades I did this week, starting on Thursday.

Boston Pizza BPF.un (trade on Toronto) $14.21 yields 9.50%.
Boston Pizza is a casual eatery. a great franchise mostly in western cdn. (hotest economy in Cdn., probably north America). there sales have grown by over 6% year over year.

as a unit holder in this trust you get 4% of all sales, which are increasing at over 6% year over year. trade roughly at 10.80 (though you are more interested in sales growth).

another important point is that you want the number of restaurants to increase over time. this is the case for a number of years, and this year they will be adding another 40 with still plenty of room for growth.

for the most part I trade this stock 3-4 times a month. however will probably buy some for the long term, or 2010, which ever comes first....

bought at 14.40 (what a moron, I placed the order before the markets opened on thursday, TSX is around 13,000 went down at one point 600 pts..... )

anyways now at $14.21 (also got the .113 div per share. so my cost is now 14.287.
may sell at 14.70-14.75. if it hits that mark. will keep some though.


CHL.un Cdn. Helicopters Income fund. this stock is CHEAP, CHEAP, CHEAP, did I say CHEAP. however on Thursday it hit 8.21.....8.21...8.21 I mean was trading below 10 and went to 8.21.

I mean most great cdn. reits are trading below nav, I got energy companies with growing production that no one wants at 4X cashflow, and below 10X, base metal companies at 6X earnings below (and the earnings took into account weaker metal prices.)

though chl.un at 8.21 is the greatest sign of panic to me. at that price you could tell everyone to go home sell the helicopters and make money.

the company yields 10% (1.05 div, div like bpf.un is paid monthly),

still trades slighly below nav at 10.50 cdn. and their recent earnings released aug 8, beat the street estimates, and were great, okay very good.

cash flow up to .79 unit up from .56 q2,2006.
by the way payout ratio is at 53%. great for an income trust, some of the poor ones pay have 100% payout ratio or close to it.....

I did not get any at 8.21 (trades small volume) on thursday (daily volume 15K-36K)

anyways bought some at 9.95, and 10.15. sold half at 10.50.

will buy more if it hits 10. still CHEAP. I mean 8.21....sorry.


Finally a pipeline. TRP (trades NYSE, TSX) held up well during the carnage, that is what defensive stocks are supposed to do......

Trans Canada pipelines bought some at 35.60, also sold covered calls, this week on Montreal...(that is painfull) for 36sept. and 36oct.

if I lose the stock will make 4.30% for one month,
and 7.95% in two months (two months counts div).

give me 2% a month I go home happy.

downside trp is at 35.90, if the options expire will just write more after october.

stock yields 3.80%, will make 2.05 in 2007 and 2.20 in 2008 and they have a habit of increasing the div.

actually trp has done well the last five years.

ussually sold puts on TRP, however the premiums are so low. in the past year or two.

so a pizza, pipeline, and a helicopters were the trades this week.

thanks
selkirk

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Interesting assortment Kirk

I forgot to tell you while back when you posted bout TSX-- Was doing search on it that brought up entirely diff stock (as far as I can tell)TSX on Amex-- found it quite interesting --this isn't same TSX your talking about?

http://stocks.us.reuters.com/stocks/overview.asp?symbol=TSX

--Wonder if things calm down next week? Bought a few back last week but had MANY sell on stops-now about 70% cash-

Considering buying back a few more-you have any lean on metals and shipping sectors--or would you
advise waiting?

 

[selkirk]

DTB when I mention TSX ussually means Toronto Stock Exchange. they used to call it, and sometimes I still do, TSE. though this would make sense, Tokyo goes by those symbols. so they changed.

should note own the TSX stock, symbol X, on Toronto. it is hedged with covered calls, and I plan on reducing my position. by half. they will have more competition however the stock is probably cheap compared to other exchanges and has helped up well recently. yields 3.71% and has good cash positon, trades under 20X.

earnings growth should slow that is why I am reducing my position.

as for TSX looks interesting, follow (a few) similar investments and will post about them.

now the china shipping is a bet on global economic growth, the sector should do well as long as the US does not fall off a cliff.

I missed the boat.... on the shipping story, even a media pundit up here is cdn. would often claim what a great buy they were. compared them to the reits in 1998-1999. when the yields were 12-13% for the best reits.

believed the yields would come down and the prices increase as the market realized that this industry was growing and not a bubble.

my main fear was that more ships would be built and the sector may face weakness. as long as there is world wide economic growth this is a false fear. do not follow the sector but missed a large move.

as for base metals, in general like energy and base metals. like these two sectors going forward. there are some base metal stocks that got crushed. this was not unexpected as they never performed well the past month.

I mean most energy names came in with good/great numbers and the stock would just sit there or go lower...... the market does not believe in 70 oil....if it sticks here then these stocks will recover.

as for base metals believe they were sold becuase last week we are heading for a depression, or so it was thought.

my main holding in this group is TCK.b (TCK in the US) trades below 10X earings, has a yield over 2.50%. well run company.

should note: family controlled, so low chance of a takeout.


when invest slowly in this group, TCK went down almost 4cdn. on thursday. recovered near the end of the day.

if there is a selloff these stocks will get punted again. so would slowly invest in this sector.

also overall would slowly (if there seems to be a recovery) invest back in the market.
would still have stops in place. believe the market goes higher but you never know everything about the sub prime mess.

actually more worried about some of these hedge funds. 2% plus 20-40% performance fees have some of these funds taking (insane ) risks. why not, great return and when they blow up just start up another one........


thanks
selkirk

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Thanks Kirk--as always just what I was looking for

Looked at your TCK and will have a little of it today--looks like opportune time--what excellent #'s and cash vs debt almost 3/1 to boot.

One stock I bought back last week- but in diff sector was -AINV not a very volitile stock and only dropped a few points with subprime plunge and a down grade from buy to hold (last quarter earning sub par) in same week. Has 1/1 ratio on cash/debt--unusual for it sector and book value bought same as stock price.

back to metals sectors--this looks encouraging--
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...B3F-8287-4CE3-9DE4-56816E57BD4A}&siteid=yhoof

Miner Anglo American (UK:AAL: news, chart, profile) (AAUK)---also have aggressively bought back shares, with most of the purchases coming over the last few weeks.

 

[s_dooley24]

selkirk-

as you know I follow Morningstar closely. They just put this out today

http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=204278&pgid=wwhome1a&lpos=Commentary

Could be wrong but I believe you or maybe Wayne have positions in NXY?

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Thanks Dooley---Did have NXY but sold on stop--as well as 2 other oil companies PTR and E.
Will look to buy back NXY and E at some point in time but probably not PTR.

--believe Kirk has or may have had positions on 3 of companies on their list.

 

[s_dooley24]

Thanks Dooley---Did have NXY but sold on stop--as well as 2 other oil companies PTR and E.
Will look to buy back NXY and E at some point in time but probably not PTR.

--believe Kirk has or may have had positions on 3 of companies on their list.

Wayne what kind of price point are you looking to enter NXY?

 

[selkirk]

DTB TCK, TCK.b (cdn. symbol) is a very good base metals play. of coarse they also have a oil sands venture with petro canada, and UTS.

time will tell but at above 60 oil will go ahead, probably 50 though would slow the project. at 40 most of these projects would not go ahead....
the project will probably cost 16-19 billion. split between the three. this is four years into the future, and no decission will be made to go ahead until 2008...

also bought Aur, a good copper company, believe they did this to provide cash flow for this project and others.

also bought into a BC mine that will go ahead, copper, gold.

they pay a decent yield probably not increase the div much, since they will pay for the oil sands project and aquistions (especially if the market tanks) with cash on hand.

own a position and have written (sold ) many puts, and have a few out now, nov.
tck 40.51US tck.b 42.95
buy range 40 cdn. sell / hold 50 cdn. or high 40s.
short term. long term this one should do well. market sell offs, broad is the main danger. also ussually track copper, the most of the base metals.

Dooley own and have options on NXY, TLM, and ENB own in a DRIP/SPP, since 1998 and will have probably for life.

ANP Angiotech devloped the coated stent and partnered with Boston Sci. the stock went up, and since has been a rocket downwards.

the coated stents never quite lived up to the hype, there was recalls, and perphaps some deaths. they are still better than the regular stents. JJ have a rival product, believe..... all had some problems.

anyways decent pipeline, and avg. good management, time will tell, and cash on hand. probably not bad here, will wait until the stock moves higher, hate catching falling knives.

by the freakonomics, and a 3hr radio documentary on heart attack in NA. claimed that many heart surgeries were not necessary :scared

FFH is compared to Berkshire, except they were terrible at shareholder relations, and explaining their actions even during conference calls. they have improved and probably worth a look, own SLF, and may soon own MFC, especically on a sell off or 10% pull back. have to look at FFH again.

CMZ has gotten cheaper, looked at it and preferred other companies more, in the midcap space probably prefer 3-4 four names more.

NXY own and have 33 nov calls, and 34 nov calls. wrorte the covered call when NXY was between 31-30cdn. and falling. currently at 28.99, went to 27 cdn. on the sell off.

growing production and great company, and when takeovers happen this may be one. still for the rest of the year probably dead money..... or hopefully until nov. my mistake was should have punted it when their production growth would be delayed. still cheap below nav and cheap on cash flow. probably a late 07 08 story though.

TLM own this and have sept 20 covered calls, on TLM. trades at 17.73 cdn. very good well run company and could see an Asian company taking it over, not a US company ....long story.

cheap growing production in 2008. probably cheapest stock energy....no oil sands. also Jim Buckee CEO left to retire...he is a rocket scientist....brilliant. the market will probably wait to see how new CEO acts. still good management. note: if the sept. expire will probably sell a covered call 3-4 months out at 20-22.cdn. great premiums on these energy stocks.

Enbridge prefer TRP, wow did I say that. ENB has to fund some of their new pipelines and expansion with 1.5 billion paper (debt) and 500 million in shares.... ENB is a great company long term, however maybe better 6-9 months from here.
have owned enb since 98 and have done well.

own a large position in TRP and have 36 calls sept. explained the trade in this thread...TRP is a good long term play, prefer it over enb, in 2007. both are good going forward.

ENB yields 3.74%, TRP yields 4%. the divs are safe at both companies...and they are increased on a regular basis. good choice for a denfensive/income play.

thanks
selkirk

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Bought TCK yesterday Kirk-Thanks

Dooley I think price is fair now--Am waiting longer for stupid reason--Am trying not to jump back in market with both feet till Nov--thoughts of Oct years ago still linger--would like to stay at least 30% cash till then--

 

[lawmaker1]

I have had some NXY for the last 3 months.

 

[selkirk]

Lawmaker NXY and many energy names have not had a good time of it lately.

most have been hurt by the most recent selloff, all that I follow.
also of the ones I follow NXY has not been the strongest performer short term.

NXY 29.53 cdn. 27.87US. has been hurt by a delay in some of their projects.
this week they annouced that Long Lake will come in closer to 6.1 billion than the last estimate 5.8 billion. the project will be on stream in 2008, hopefully the summer.

before it was late 2007. NXY partner is Opti Canada which shares the costs. the project will produce 60,000 within a year of startup.

I am not pleased with the overruns, but that is almost common in the cdn. oil sands. their is a great shortage of skilled labour and even equipment.

however NXY project is coming to an end and they believe they have all the labour they will need. today if they were to build this same project the cost would probably approach 8 billion and over.

there is some good news, as they have other projects. Buzzard field (north Sea) has been showing great results and the best is probably yet to come.

the stock is trading below NAV, and has growing production, espcially 2008.

own a postion have covered calls at 33, 34 (montreal) stock 29.53cdn.

27.87US.

other names I own are ECA, TLM, PCA, (may lose PCA this sept.), CNQ,

in the US write puts on VLO, and have owned it in the past.

should note have covered calls on most of the above names, especially TLM.

thanks
selkirk