NEW: WHEN THE GOING GETS TOUGH, THE TOUGH GET GOING:
Yesterday's loss on the Portugal-USA World Cup match was the toughest single loss I have suffered in probably five years. It wasn't the amount of money I lost ($1500 -- which was significant) that disturbs me as much as the loss of confidence.
In poker, I have a golden rule that I always follow -- which has served me well and saved me from losing a mighty sum. The golden rule has helped me to sustain the inevitable downswings of this risky business. It is this: When I lose confidence in my "reads," I get up from the table and either take a break or find another game. In poker, losing confidence in your "reads" means not being able to trust yourself you are right about the relative strength of a certain hand. For example, if you are confident, you might get an extra bet or two out of a winning marginal hand that you might otherwise lose with or fold. It means reading people correctly when they are bluffing. It means READING THE SITUATION RIGHT, given the facts that are available to you.
The same tenants of "reading the situation" also applies to sports betting. There is so much information out there that it is difficult to separate fact from fiction. What is hype and what is reality? That's the $64,000 question. Make sense of it, and you will make a fortune in this business. If you have been in sports gambling for many years, you have seen it all and probably been on both sides of the equation. Separating fact from fiction means betting on a team when the FACTS support it, and betting against the team when it's hype.
What disturbs me most about losing the World Cup match where the USA pulled a shocking upset of PORTUGAL is my conclusion that the lines and distinctions between "facts" and "hype" are blurred to the point of being indecipherable. I do not consider myself to be an expert on World Cup games by any means (unlike some others are the Message Forum who are experts). However, just so you know -- I did play soccer many years ago in high school and played in an amateur league for three years. I also was a USSF certified referee. Between 1976 and 1982, I refereed probably 500 soccer games -- from junior level up to adult. After you watch hundreds of games, you pick up the capacity to know which teams have talent and which teams do not. So, I do think I can recognize talent and understand at least the basics of the game. I've watched many of the World Cup qualifying matches (admittedly I do not understand Spanish, which runs many of the games on Univision). What I saw leading up to yesterday's game led me to conclude the USA had little or now chance to win the match. The USA was clearly outclassed (on paper) and would be very lucky to get a draw. It was the draw I feared most.
How then, can I explain the USA getting out to a 3-goal lead and upsetting the top team in the bracket?
ANSWER: I can't.
I am dumbfounded.
If this was a poker game, I would get up from the table right now, cash out, and come back the next day. But this is not a poker game. It is sports betting. All I can do is read, study and watch -- and continue to learn. I'm certainly not beyond admitting an error of judgment. After losing $1050 on last year's Super Bowl (I had the Rams -14), I can look back and now see that the Patriots were the right play under the circumstances. It's easy to reflect afterwards and see what you might have missed. Hopefully, you learn and move on. Hopefully, you do not make the same mistakes again. But in the case of the World Cup, I fail to see the signs I missed. Every sign pointed to Portugal not only winning, but beating the USA decisively.
What was even more enticing was the fact that I was going against the public sentiment (some people e-mailed me and said it's "wrong" for me to bet against the USA -- making a patriotic argument). I purposely bet this in Las Vegas where the moneyline was better than offshore (offshores are influenced by a heavy influx of European and Asian money, which is not pro-American). I was proud of the fact I shopped around and saved myself 50 points on the bet. But alas, it was all for naught.
I will put this unbearable loss behind me and try to move on. Weathering the storm that certainly lies ahead of us will require that we be prepared for the inevitable cycles of losing. But one thing I can't stand -- is that feeling of helplessness after taking a defeat that leave you shaking your head. And that's precisely what the USA's upset of Portugal was -- a mystery and a reminder that NOTHING is certain in this business.
Yesterday's loss on the Portugal-USA World Cup match was the toughest single loss I have suffered in probably five years. It wasn't the amount of money I lost ($1500 -- which was significant) that disturbs me as much as the loss of confidence.
In poker, I have a golden rule that I always follow -- which has served me well and saved me from losing a mighty sum. The golden rule has helped me to sustain the inevitable downswings of this risky business. It is this: When I lose confidence in my "reads," I get up from the table and either take a break or find another game. In poker, losing confidence in your "reads" means not being able to trust yourself you are right about the relative strength of a certain hand. For example, if you are confident, you might get an extra bet or two out of a winning marginal hand that you might otherwise lose with or fold. It means reading people correctly when they are bluffing. It means READING THE SITUATION RIGHT, given the facts that are available to you.
The same tenants of "reading the situation" also applies to sports betting. There is so much information out there that it is difficult to separate fact from fiction. What is hype and what is reality? That's the $64,000 question. Make sense of it, and you will make a fortune in this business. If you have been in sports gambling for many years, you have seen it all and probably been on both sides of the equation. Separating fact from fiction means betting on a team when the FACTS support it, and betting against the team when it's hype.
What disturbs me most about losing the World Cup match where the USA pulled a shocking upset of PORTUGAL is my conclusion that the lines and distinctions between "facts" and "hype" are blurred to the point of being indecipherable. I do not consider myself to be an expert on World Cup games by any means (unlike some others are the Message Forum who are experts). However, just so you know -- I did play soccer many years ago in high school and played in an amateur league for three years. I also was a USSF certified referee. Between 1976 and 1982, I refereed probably 500 soccer games -- from junior level up to adult. After you watch hundreds of games, you pick up the capacity to know which teams have talent and which teams do not. So, I do think I can recognize talent and understand at least the basics of the game. I've watched many of the World Cup qualifying matches (admittedly I do not understand Spanish, which runs many of the games on Univision). What I saw leading up to yesterday's game led me to conclude the USA had little or now chance to win the match. The USA was clearly outclassed (on paper) and would be very lucky to get a draw. It was the draw I feared most.
How then, can I explain the USA getting out to a 3-goal lead and upsetting the top team in the bracket?
ANSWER: I can't.
I am dumbfounded.
If this was a poker game, I would get up from the table right now, cash out, and come back the next day. But this is not a poker game. It is sports betting. All I can do is read, study and watch -- and continue to learn. I'm certainly not beyond admitting an error of judgment. After losing $1050 on last year's Super Bowl (I had the Rams -14), I can look back and now see that the Patriots were the right play under the circumstances. It's easy to reflect afterwards and see what you might have missed. Hopefully, you learn and move on. Hopefully, you do not make the same mistakes again. But in the case of the World Cup, I fail to see the signs I missed. Every sign pointed to Portugal not only winning, but beating the USA decisively.
What was even more enticing was the fact that I was going against the public sentiment (some people e-mailed me and said it's "wrong" for me to bet against the USA -- making a patriotic argument). I purposely bet this in Las Vegas where the moneyline was better than offshore (offshores are influenced by a heavy influx of European and Asian money, which is not pro-American). I was proud of the fact I shopped around and saved myself 50 points on the bet. But alas, it was all for naught.
I will put this unbearable loss behind me and try to move on. Weathering the storm that certainly lies ahead of us will require that we be prepared for the inevitable cycles of losing. But one thing I can't stand -- is that feeling of helplessness after taking a defeat that leave you shaking your head. And that's precisely what the USA's upset of Portugal was -- a mystery and a reminder that NOTHING is certain in this business.
