Where the Action is: NFL Mid-Week Line Moves

[Senor Capper]

Week 3 of the NFL schedule has been a busy time for books. With oddsmakers and football bettors getting a better handle on the league, those opinions are coming into play and have multiple lines on the move as the weekend draws closer.

We talk to sportsbooks, both online and in Las Vegas, about the biggest adjustments on the NFL Week 3 board.

Green Bay Packers at Cincinnati Bengals ? Open: +1, Move: +3


The Bengals? win on Monday did little to impress bettors, who have driven this number as high as a field goal at some books. According to Jay Rood, Vice President of race and sports at MGM, nearly 98 percent of the early money is on the Packers. :scared

?It?s been all Packers and we?re likely going to follow the pack and go to -2.5,? Rood, who opened Green Bay -2, told Covers. ?Outside of a small bet on the Bengals, it?s been all Green Bay on straight-up bets, teasers, and parlays.?



Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings ? Open: -3.5, Move: -6.5


Cleveland is going with third-string QB Brian Hoyer Sunday after No. 1 Brandon Weeden suffered a thumb injury against Baltimore last week. On top of that, the Browns traded RB Trent Richardson to the Colts Wednesday night. That?s pushed this spread a field goal and could continue to add points to the line.

?With a healthy Weeden, they average a poultry 5.8 yards per completion - ranked 28th in NFL. And now with the announcement that Brian Hoyer is getting the start ahead of Jason Campbell, I can?t see how Cleveland is going to move the ball,? Peter Childs of Sportsbook.



Detroit Lions at Washington Redskins ? Open: Pick, Move: -2.5

This game opened as low as a pick but money is siding with the Redskins and has moved the spread a near field goal as of Wednesday afternoon.

?There is a lean toward Washington but the sharps haven?t tipped their hand on this one,? says Rood. ?The public is hooking up on Washington and the Over.?



Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints ? Open: -9.5, Move: -7

The Cardinals have been better than expected in the first two weeks of the season and money on Arizona has echoed that sentiment, with almost all the action taking the road team down as low as a touchdown underdog. Rood believes some football fans aren?t quite sold on New Orleans as a contender just yet.

?They?re like any other team adjusting to a new head coach,? he says. ?There are a lot of players on the Saints that haven?t played under (head coach Sean) Peyton. And he?s coming back with a new eye for this team. It?s kind of like the Saints have had three head coaches in three years. It?s going to take some time. This team right now will be completely different come Week 10 or 11.?



Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins ? Open: Pick, Move: -3

The Dolphins are the wiseguys? choice this week, moving this spread as many as three points at some books. According to Rood, the MGM Mirage took a limit play on Miami ($30,000) Wednesday morning, forcing them to move the line from Dolphins -1.5 to -2.5.

?The public money, however, is all over the Falcons on straight-up bets and parlays,? says Rood. ?This is a classic matchup of sharps versus public. We don?t want to go to Miami -3 right away but could if the sharps keep pushing it.?



Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks ? Open: -16.5, Move: -20


Some books were bet up to this monstrous spread while others boldly opened Seattle as a 20-point favorite hosting the lowly Jaguars Sunday. According to Childs, the early money came from sharps who gladly laid the 17 points. When the public got involved, they jumped from -18 straight to -20.

?Since going to 20, we?ve actually written nice two-way action on this game, so I can?t see us moving off that number any time soon,? he says.



Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos ? Open: -16.5, Move: -14


At first glance, this spread may not be enough. Denver has been dominant through its first two games but is now suffering from a dangerously-thin offensive line. The Broncos, who lost their starting center this summer, will be without left tackle Ryan Clady due to a foot injury.

?You just can?t go to 711 and get another one of these guys,? Roods says of Denver?s ailing offensive line.

?With these big spreads, the teams don?t care about them,? he says. ?If (Denver) gets up by 17 points, they?re going into preservation mode and pulling guys off the bench. There?s always that possibility for a backdoor cover on a late touchdown with these (spreads).?
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[Senor Capper]

Football lines that make you go hmmm...

Football lines that make you go hmmm...


We?ve seen this "Rope-a-Dope" from the New York Giants before.

New York, which is 0-2 SU and ATS out of the gate, lost its opening two games of the 2007 season in similar fashion, dropping to Dallas in Week 1 and getting blown out of the water by Green Bay in Week 2.

That New York team would rebound from that 0-2 start to win 10 of its final 14 games SU and ATS, make the playoffs, fight its way to the NFC Championship, and stun the undefeated New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLII.

So you can excuse us for being a little skeptical of the Giants as 1-point road underdogs in Carolina this Sunday. They actually opened as high as 2.5-point pups at some books.

New York is better than its record indicates. If not for a turnover bonanza, the Giants would have likely beaten the Cowboys in the opener, and Week 2?s loss to the Broncos wouldn?t have the G-Men scrambling for the panic button.

According to beat writer Art Stapleton of the N.J. Record, only three teams have gone on to make the playoffs after starting 0-3 since 1990 and none since 1998. That factoid makes this Sunday?s trip to Carolina even more important for New York.

And, just in case you were wondering, the 2007 Giants followed that 0-2 start with a 24-17 win at Washington in Week 3 as 3.5-point underdogs ? starting a streak of six straight wins in which N.Y. went 5-1 ATS.

NFL

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-14.5, 49)

Rarely do you get to say two touchdowns is not enough when talking about NFL spreads. But, here we are.

The Broncos look like world beaters, smoking the defending Super Bowl champs and thumping the one team that may have the most inside info on Peyton Manning (H/T Eli) in the first two weeks of the season. Denver has outscored opponents 90-50 through those two games, winning by an average of 20 points against two very good teams.

The Oakland Raiders are not a very good team. A close loss to Indianapolis ? which plays every game close ? and a win over Jacksonville ? which could be the worst team in NFL history ? has everyone?s Silver and Black panties in the bunch.

If Denver?s defense can pick off a total of six passes against Super Bowl MVPs like Eli Manning and Joe Flacco, a forgotten third-round pick like Terrelle Pryor doesn?t stand a chance.
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[Senor Capper]

Big NFL favorites are anything but a sure bet

Big NFL favorites are anything but a sure bet



The Seattle Seahawks opened as 20-point home favorites against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 3, which is about as rare as a vampire's steak.

There have been only nine other NFL teams favored by 20 points or more since 1985, with those teams going just 1-8 ATS in that time frame. The most recent line of that magnitude was the New England Patriots, who were 20.5-point faves hosting the Indianapolis Colts in Week 13 of the 2011 season. The Manning-less Colts lost but covered in a 31-24 loss.

Some books have taken money on the Jaguars, dropping that monstrous line to Seattle -19.5, which is even more rare than 20-plus point spreads. There have been only three NFL games with a closing spread of 19.5 points since 1985, with those favorites posting a collective 2-1 ATS mark.

The biggest spread in the past 28 years is 24 points, which has actually shown up twice since 1985. The San Francisco 49ers were 24-point home favorites hosting the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 14 of the 1993 season. They won but failed to cover in a 21-8 victory. New England was the other 24-point chalk, hosting the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 12 of the 2007 schedule. The Patriots won but fell way short of the spread, edging the Eagles 31-28.

The lone 20-plus point favorite to cover that thick line were the 1991 Buffalo Bills, who beat the Colts 42-6 as a 20-point chalk in Week 7.

The Seahawks aren?t the only NFL team giving a wheelbarrow of points in Week 3. The Denver Broncos host the Oakland Raiders as 14.5-point favorites on Monday Night Football and were as big as -16.5 earlier in the week. Since 1985, favorites between 14 and 15 points are just 38-53-3 ATS (42 percent).

Overall, favorites of two touchdowns (-14) or more are 87-111-6 ATS (187-17 SU) since 1985, covering those massive piles of chalk at just a 44 percent rate.

The biggest underdog to ever win outright during that span were the 1995 Washington Redskins, who stunned the Dallas Cowboys, 24-17, as 17.5-point underdogs in Week 14.

Note: The most profitable big favorites are teams set between -15 and -16, going 21-15 ATS over the last 28 seasons.

 

[Senor Capper]

NFL line watch: Washington bettors shouldn't waste time

NFL line watch: Washington bettors shouldn't waste time



Each week during the pro football season, Covers Expert Art Aronson looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.



Spread to bet now

Detroit Lions at Washington Redskins (Pick)

If you're a Washington fan, you may want to consider jumping on your team as fast as possible. This line opened at a pick?em (still available at some books), but is already starting to climb.

After holding on for a 34-24 win at home versus Minnesota in their opener, the Lions took to the road for a game in Arizona and lost 25-21 as 1-point favorites in Week 2. With a second straight road contest, games versus the Bears and the Packers looming, and facing a desperate Redskins team this week, the public is going to start jumping on the home side in this situation.

Washington has started the year 0-2 after finishing 10-6 and clinching the NFC East in 2012. It looked flat-footed in the opener versus the Eagles and shell shocked in a 38-20 loss as a 9-point dog in Green Bay last week. It's hard to believe that there are now questions regarding whether or not RG III should make way for backup Kirk Cousins (don't worry Skins fans, coach Mike Shanahan has quashed that line of thinking: "We have a lot of confidence in Robert.").

Lions bettors are keeping an eye on RB Reggie Bush. News early in the week says his knee injury is not as bad as initially thought and that the dynamic back could be in the lineup Sunday. If he's not, expect this line to climb even higher.



Spread to wait on

Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers (-11.5)

If you're a fan of the 49ers, consider waiting until closer to kickoff before jumping on your team. This line opened at -11.5 and is already dropping.

Teams that make it all the way to the Super Bowl and lose, more often than not, struggle the following season. San Francisco was looking to buck that trend in Week 1 and wiped the floor with the Packers. Last week's divisional battle in Seattle was primed to be a classic as well, but that wasn't the case as the Seahawks handled the visitors 29-3.

Andrew Luck and the 1-1 Colts are quickly garnering interest from the general betting public. Luck returns to the West Coast after stumbling in a 24-20 setback to the Dolphins last week. But with a "cream puff" in Jacksonville on deck, there will be no looking ahead for Indianapolis - perhaps another big reason this line continues to fall.



Total to watch

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (49)

If you're a fan of Overs, you may want to consider jumping on this one right away. This line initially opened at 48.5, but it's already starting to climb. There are still a lot of 49s out there, but a few 49.5s are starting to hit the board.

Peyton Manning already has nine TD passes after the first two games (Denver has a combined 90 points in that span), which has this spread on the rise.

It's hard to get a true read on the Raiders quite yet. They lost 21-17 in Indianapolis in Week 1 - a game which they actually controlled for the most part - and then beat the toothless Jaguars 19-9 in Week 2.

Until someone can actually prove that they can stop Denver's offensive assault, expect the public to keep hammering the Over.
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[Senor Capper]

NFL odds: Week 3 opening line report

NFL odds: Week 3 opening line report



Oddsmakers are spreading it on thick in Week 3 of the NFL season, thanks to some lopsided matchups on schedule.

The NFL?s top two teams ? Denver and Seattle ? take on two of its worst ? Oakland and Jacksonville ? forcing oddsmakers to pile on the points. The Broncos opened as high as -16.5 hosting the Raiders Monday night while the Seahawks are as high as -20 welcoming the Jaguars to CenturyLink Field Sunday.

?These numbers are made to keep the games equal,? Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based service The Sports Club, tells Covers. ?You treat them just like any other game on the schedule. They just are what they are.?

Double-digit spreads are rare in the parity of the NFL, and two-touchdown chalk is like finding two prizes inside a box of cereal. But getting an NFL spread in the 20-point range is like seeing Big Foot riding a Unicorn through the Lost City of Atlantis. It?s pretty rare.

The 2011 Indianapolis Colts were 20.5-point underdogs visiting the New England Patriots in Week 13 of that season. The Manning-less Colts put up a good fight, losing 31-24 with QB Dan Orlovsky at the helm.

?At this level of points, it will reduce some of the money on this game because people won?t want to get involved,? says Korner, who originally sent out Jacksonville as a suggested 16-point underdog. ?I think people will take Jacksonville on a flyer and hope they get a touchdown or two.?

As for the Oakland-Denver matchup, early action has actually taken this spread down a bit, dropping the line from Broncos -16.5 to -14 as of Monday morning. Denver has been impressive in its first two wins, blowing out the Ravens and Giants, while Oakland narrowly lost to the Colts in Week 1 and defeated the Jaguars this past Sunday.

?We?re sending this out trying to overcompensate for the favorite,? says Korner, who sent out a suggested line of Denver 16. ?What has Denver done to make us think they won?t play Oakland any different? They?ve done everything right and have clobbered their first two opponents. What?s not to like about Denver.?

?I don?t know how this made it to a Monday Night Football game,? he says. ?An old rivalry like this isn?t going to attract people with the way things are going. But having a pointspread on a game like this will attract people. Even if it is this big.?




Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 50)

The return of the Walrus - goo goo g'joob - headlines the Thursday nighter, with new Chiefs coach Andy Reid coming back to Philadelphia.

Korner says that while the Eagles are running a different offense and defense, Reid still knows their players better than any coach in the league. He had his oddsmakers suggesting this spread as low as Philadelphia -1.5 before sending out Eagles -3.

?You have to figure Kansas City has the edge,? he says. ?There is an incentive for Kansas City?s players to play for their coach. That?s worth more than the Eagles playing against one man. The Chiefs look strong and have a great shot of winning this game. They're something new and more of a mystery to Philadelphia. I don?t see it going to -3.5.?



Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins (-1, 44)

Oddsmakers are buying into Miami?s 2-0 start to the season, making them home favorites against the Falcons Sunday. The Dolphins knocked off Indianapolis on the road in Week 2 and Korner admits he wasn?t giving Miami much credit to start the season.

?We had it around -2.5 for Miami,? he says. ?Atlanta is a capable team but they match up well against each other. You?re basically looking at home-field advantage with this one. (The Dolphins) kind of snuck up on me. My thoughts are much different now."
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