Which is worse...Parlay or Teaser?

[buddy]

On the surface, they both seem harmless, but it seems that the veteran sportsbettor never touches them.

Are they both equally bad or is one worse than the other?

(If you're playin' the daily number tonight, you might want to take a shot on trip 7's)

[This message has been edited by buddy (edited 08-21-2001).]

 

[ZigZag]

If you use the standard parlay payouts and go by the vig/house adv then the straight play has less of an adv for the book.

example - lay 11 win 10 situation, in a perfect world you would get paid 11 for your 11, but here you take 10 and divide by 11 to come up with 90.9% of what you should get paid. With all the great offers out there you can get 5% juice or no juice fridays, but we will stick with -110 for this example.

Now if you look at the parlay payout on a 2 teamer of 13/5 you only get 13 when you should get 15 for a true even payout. 13 / 15 comes out to 86.6% so you can see that 90.9% vs 86.6% and the winner is the straight play. BUT WAIT Do we have to settle for a 13/5 payout. NO WAY

With all the books out there you can beat 13/5 with a 13.5/5 or 14/5. I play all of my parlays at a book that pays 14/5. With a 14/5 payout you are getting 93.3% (14 / 15).

With this payout it is actually better to play the parlay vs 90.9% straight bet. Now when you factor in a -105 juice (95.2%) then the straight play wins again. Ofcourse the no juice friday or any no juice beats everything, but then you have the condition of playing on friday.

Bottom line - 14/5 parlay payouts are out there and they are actually better plays vs
-110 (my opinion), but unless I have 2 teams I love I will usually play straight and look for -105 juice or play em on fridays for no juice.

Teasers - hmmmmm I don't know how to actually calculate these other than the extremely high winning % you must have in order to win with them. I don't really believe that teasers or parlays deserve quite the bad rap that they get. If you are going to play teasers I would make sure that you are gettting the best possible payouts. Don't fall for the ole 6 pt football 11/10. Way to many books offer 6 pt even or 3 team 10 pt 11/10. Check around, the best teaser and parlay payouts that I have found are 2 team 6 pt even and 2 team parlay 14/5 payout. These are both at the same book so it makes it even easier. I won't mention the name since the don't advertise here.

If anyone finds better then let me know.

[This message has been edited by ZigZag (edited 08-21-2001).]

 

[Duncan]

I have a really stupid question: On no-juice Fridays, does that mean all bets placed on a Friday, or does it mean the game you bet on has to go off on a Friday as well?? If the former, then why wouldn't everyone play their NFL games on the Friday and avoid the vig. Or am I missing something?? (Probably). Also, what is in this for the book??

Sorry to ask such a basic question.

 

[KotysDad]

Duncan,

The no-juice fridays for NFL (say at Aces Gold) just means that you have to put in your wagers for the sunday NFL games on Friday. I guess the downside is that you are stuck if there is an injury or some other factor that might move the line against you.

My guess as to why some books offer this is that once you are betting with them you will make other wagers and give them more business on other sports. Its a lure to get you in and give them more business in other areas....but I dont work for Aces Gold or any other sportsbook so that is simply a guess.

 

[gart]

A book that doesn't advertise here offers -102 Tuesdays. They say the sharp action they take on Tuesday allows them to set sharper lines for the weekend, when most of the betting takes place.

 

[buckeye]

I'll answer Duncan first.
It is on ALL NFL SIDES for that week ( Sun and Mon night usually ). You just have to play them fri between 8am and 8pm EST. They get a lot of customers who will then turn around and play other sports, horses, casino games, and NFL totals, NCAA games, and NFL games on Sunday after spread moves etc. Many bettors don't like to play that early, they wait to see what the experts say and what late injury and weather reports indicate. If you don't worry about such things, and stick to NFL sides mostly there, it is a fabulous deal. The hoops are for Sat games only typically.

I don't play teasers at all. I believe the way to calculate their "vig" merit would be to add up each half pt worth from the starting number for all 12 halfs. I've not done the math, I may if I get bored one day, but my guess is that you'd have to cross the 3, and probably the 7, to make it worthwhile mathematically based on historical lines. So I would guess +1.5 to +7.5, and +2 to +8 are worth it, as would -8 to -2 and -7.5 to -1.5. I don't know - just guessing. 7 pt teasers for -3.5 to +3.5 would also maybe qualify. If a real expert knows, I'd like to see the math myself.

Parlays I can comment on, I am a self proclaimed "expert" on them!!

ZigZag is correct that 13-5 two teamers have "slightly" more vig than straight bets. 13.5-5 have LESS VIG. Outs like AllWorld that offer 14.5-5 ( 2.9-1 ) are roughly akin to a -103 straight bet. Compared to -110 it is worth considering!

The MAIN reason MOST BETTORS should avoid parlays like the plague is that they COMPOUND losses. If you can't hit >53% of you plays straight, then you lose more betting parlays. Most don't have the skill or $ management discipline to win on straights, so they should never try parlays!

For those who have the $ management discipline under control, and consistently hit >53% long term, there is NOTHING WRONG with two team parlays, IMO. Particularly at 2.9-1. Parlays COMPOUND WINNINGS, just like they compound losses. For the same amount risked, your ROI is more for parlays than straights if you consistently hit above 53% ( not every week but over the long haul ). For three teamers, it is even more advantageous as the compounding is stronger. Your bankroll management must be that much more controlled for 3 teamers though ( as losing streaks are far longer ), but even at 6-1 the VIG is less than straights and the compounding effect is greater than 2 teamers. At INFINITY, I'm getting 7-1 on three teamers ( same as AcesGold no vig parlays on friday ). That's no VIG! With proper $ management, >50% picks will provide winnings long term! Yes, you can go 2-1, or 1-1, on parlays a lot. But you can go 3-0 on one and 0-3 on another and kick ass, or 0-2 and 2-0, having just hit 50%. Over the long run, a >53% capper would win more with parlays ( short term is much choppier though which may be enough to make you avoid them ). Other limitations, like line shopping, are also legitimate reasons to avoid parlays altogether.

So parlays are bad/sucker bets for bad/sucker players who chase and use them to try to get healthy, etc. But if you have a "parlay strategy" with $ management and discipline and hit > 53% they can be a BIG ADVANTAGE. With some of the parlay deals out there you can even win $ with less than 52.38% on them ( like you can with Aces Gold +100 and some of the -105 outs on straights ). They aren't bad or stupid INHERENTLY, just when in the hands of bad or stupid cappers and bettors who don't understand their strengths and weaknesses, and exploit the strengths while avoiding the weaknesses. If you can get a better line elsewhere on two games, then play them straight, but if you can get them both the same at AcesGold on fri, or AllWorld on Sun, there is nothing stupid about playing a parlay on them. Greater than 3 team "spread" parlays are VERY BAD in most every way imaginable and should be avoided other than for "fun and amusement only" for small stakes! If anyone is interested, I posted a chart illustrating the comparative ROI math for parlays some time ago. Do a search here and you'd find it - very revealing, IMHO.

GL

 

[Neemer]

Duncan....

I could be wrong, but I'm guessin' that the NO JUICE Fridays stems from the fact that the Offshores can get their books in line for the upcoming weekend of games. I'm sure most Offshores would like to have their in order before the games actually start. This would enable them to have some indication on how much money they're gonna need to lay off on other teams.

Most well run organizations could probably survive if they charged NO juice at all!!

 

[buckeye]

Neemer,
I've also heard that reasoning about carib's 2 for deal ( to get an early read on public action ). But I thought that some wise $ got bet Sunday night, before the openers are even made public, to guide books a bit. I'm not saying I know there is no merit to the theory you propose, I am just not so sure that Fri is going to show them much.

As for your no juice still making $, I agree. I am a firm believer that poor money management accounts for far more of a books profits than just the vig. I know it does with casinos, I'd guess it does at books as well ( though not to the same degree ). Losers playing parlays, teasers, catch up large bets on MNF, all the tv games, sharpened lines, etc. are a book's wet dream. I also think it makes up the majority of players, despite what some say. That's why most outs don't want any wise action, it only dips into their profits off the squares. That's my take, but I don't know much about bookmaking.

GL2U

 

[Duncan]

Everyone:

Thanks for the input - I'm looking forward greatly to the new season and using this forum to help me make better decisions.

Cheers.

 

[buckeye]

Here is that chart I mentioned, along with some more parlay ramblings - sorry if it doesn't line up:

The following chart shows that the "break-even" isn't as bad as you indicate for parlays. It uses the standard Vegas 13-5 and 6-1, if you aren't getting that or better you are getting royally phucked! The break-even for 2 teamers is just over the 52.38% of flats, and for 3 teamers it is less than the 52.38% of straights because there is LESS VIG! This is a fact that FLAT BET BIGOTS cannot fathom, but it is true! So a 53% spread bettor would be better off, ROI-wise, with 2 or 3 team parlays. The big problems are money management and line shopping, but without these dilemmas the math proves PARLAYS ARE MATHEMATICALLY SUPERIOR over non-weighted straight bets for > 53% cappers. It is because of the COMPOUNDING inherent in parlays as they are akin to let-it-ride conditionals, barring ties. the compounding also works against you if < 52+% for the same reasons.
I hope this comes out legible!
> The following is a comparative chart of the NET RESULTS
> of different betting strategies when laying $110 per team
> projected hypothetically over 100 games.
> The first column would be YOUR long-term *PROVEN* win%.
> the second column shows the profits from straight bets.
> The others are for 2, 3, and 4-team parlays which payoff
> $286, $660, and $1100 respectively
> (when laying the same $110 per parlay as per straight bets)
>
> Win %.......Straight.........2-team..........3-team.........4-team
>
> @50%........-500............-1100..........-1375...........-3437
> @51%........-290..............-700.............-786..........-2814
> @52%..........-80..............-292.............-176...........-2153
>
> @53%.......+130..............+124............+464...........-1453
> @54%.......+340..............+547..........+1124.............-711
> @55%.......+550..............+979..........+1811...............+72
> @56%.......+760............+1418..........+2521............+899
> @57%.......+970............+1866..........+3260..........+1773
> @58%.....+1180............+2321..........+4023..........+2693
>
> NOTES:
> * the 2-teamer outperforms the straight bet ABOVE 53%.
> * 3-team parlays outperform all bets at 53% and up!
> * the 4-team payout doesn't even show a meagre profit until 55%
> and needs 56% to surpass straight bets and 58% to beat 2-teamers!
> * All parlay bets payoff progressively BETTER or progressively WORSE
> than straight bets below or above the break-even point.

 

[hello there]

Nice write up.... but who the heck can hit 54% or better on parlays??

 

[buckeye]

hello? Hitting 54% of the two teamers would REALLY be tough! LOL! You'd have to win almost 74% of your picks and you would be +10384, as that would be way off this "realistic pick %" chart!

The %'s, like 54%, are the winning percentages of the straight games that make up the parlay ( the underlying pick win % based on the 100 picks/games ). So the 54% on a two teamer means you'd win .54*.54=.2916=29.16% of the two teamers you play. ( 29.16*$110*2.6 - 70.84*$110 ) = $547.36 That's how you get to the profit/loss numbers. The winnings $ amounts reflect this "formula". It is the only fair way to compare.

I didn't make this chart up, another astute parlay player did. The other thing that confuses some is that he refers to 100 games compared to 100 parlays of each type. This is the only fair way to compare ( same $ risked ), but they start asking how you can get 100 parlays out of 100 games. This hypothetical is based on round robins so that you are using the same games in multiple parlays, and hitting the same %. The key element is they are the SAME GAMES/PICKS. Things like ties, line differences, etc. are also irrelevant to the comparison as it is based on 100 games that all had an outcome played at the same time with the same line, just different bet types. Though you may not exactly match the theoretical # of parlays, like the 29.16/100, since you obviously can't win .16 of a parlay, the math would even out over many trials and can reasonably be expected to match the expected "theoretical" results over time. In the short run, $ management is key.

I'm not advocating this for ANYBODY, but the MATH IS CORRECT AND IRREFUTABLE. His dollar amounts may be off a dollar here or there, but that is trivial.

GL