Who will make the longest field goal?

[hildog]

I was scanning the superbowl props last night, to see if anything jumped out at me, and then I saw the prop for longest field goal made. The line was NE +150 and Rams -180. I will examine this bet using 3 angles.

(1) For the year, Wilkins is 23 for 29 with 54 being the longest and Vinatieri is 24 for 30 with 54 being the longest made.

(2) Wilkins field goals accounted for one-eighth of the Rams total points and Vinatieri had one-sixth.

(3) Belichick is the more conservative coach who is going to try and control the clock, i.e. trying to just get first downs as opposed to taking chances down the field. (We all saw what happened when Green Bay tried to throw the ball down the field).
Martz probably considers a drive that ends in a field goal as an unsuccessful drive and will take chances to score touchdowns at all cost. Therefore, I feel that there is a better chance that a NE drive will stall out about the twenty yard line than would a Ram drive.

I think that with both kickers being pretty even, points two and three are the factors for determining the longest field goal made. I give the slight lean to the Patriots making the longest field goal. At +150, I feel there is significant value here. I have not pulled the trigger yet on this one and any comments are most certainly welcome.

 

[NFLXTFAN]

Just my take regarding this prop, I think I would go with New England on this one. Looking at it this way, the Rams and their high powered offense, would usually be closer to the endzone for a fg try than New England. New England has a better chance of having a drive stall out than the Rams. If New England is stopped on a 3rd down, I firmly belive it will most likely not be inside the "red zone". So, in closing, Rams score td's and New England has the chance to score the longest fg. Good Luck!

 

[TheShrimp]

You listed all the factors that would make one lean towards the Pats, but I think the overriding factor here is that most likely the Pats will be playing from behind, and so won't be doing much kicking of field goals if down by 14-20 late in the game.

Nutshell: STL kicks field goals the whole game. NE kicks them for only half a game.

That said, NE could be kicking them early, and AV is a good kicker, and at +150, it's probably a good bet. I just wanted to point out why I think its so high. If its a tight game, AND IT COULD BE, then the bet on NE is definitely a good one.

TheShrimp