Am I missing something?? The O's pretty good size home dogs to Cleveland with Westbrook who has a terrible record????? I know Cleve has been hot, but this line totally stinks to me. I smell TRAP written all over this one as far as anyone taking the O's. Any thoughts......
Why are the O's dogs today???
- Thread starter RIGHT SIDE
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Might be trap. but I'm thinking the O's busted out of their slump in that last game against the Yanks...before that, they had been in a slide...probably where that line came from.
Cleveland is a lock
Cleveland is a lock
im sorry... :mj07: :mj07:
load up on Cleveland !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Cleveland is a lock
im sorry... :mj07: :mj07:
load up on Cleveland !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
following the indians the way i do, i really think westbrook is the best pitcher on their staff, especially from a betting perspective. that might sound preposterous given his 1st half record, but im sure there are some other indians fans who would likely agree too. sabathia is the one who everyone touts as the ace, but he just has no consistency. and his vegas price is always inflated. a couple guys playing for central division rivals have said that when westbrook is on, its almost impossible to elevate the ball on him. his sinker is that good and he gets a ton of ground balls. he works fast and doesnt walk a lot of batters.
also, his win/loss numbers are really deceptive.
until just recently, he was getting absolutely no run support and he has had some gems wasted (see: opening day in chicago. 8 innings. 1 run. and the indians lost 1-0. and then also on a thursday afternoon against anaheim, he went 8.1 innings, gave up 2 runs...and lost 2-1)
he's given up 2 runs or less in EIGHT OF HIS LAST 11 starts. having said that, he did get hit hard in those other 3. but you can normally count on him to go deep into a game and keep cleveland in it.
all in all, his season log is just really misleading.
if i could pick one indians starter to pitch a big game, hed be my choice.
it comes down to this:
hes made 16 starts this season.
hes given up 6+ runs in 4 of them.
and in his other 12 starts, hes got an ERA of 2.27
is he capable of getting bombed? it could happen
but hes very capable of shutting baltimore down too
also, his win/loss numbers are really deceptive.
until just recently, he was getting absolutely no run support and he has had some gems wasted (see: opening day in chicago. 8 innings. 1 run. and the indians lost 1-0. and then also on a thursday afternoon against anaheim, he went 8.1 innings, gave up 2 runs...and lost 2-1)
he's given up 2 runs or less in EIGHT OF HIS LAST 11 starts. having said that, he did get hit hard in those other 3. but you can normally count on him to go deep into a game and keep cleveland in it.
all in all, his season log is just really misleading.
if i could pick one indians starter to pitch a big game, hed be my choice.
it comes down to this:
hes made 16 starts this season.
hes given up 6+ runs in 4 of them.
and in his other 12 starts, hes got an ERA of 2.27
is he capable of getting bombed? it could happen
but hes very capable of shutting baltimore down too
gman pretty much said it all. Westbrook HAS been much better than his record indicates. That win/loss record is VERY deceptive and Cleveland is one of the hottest and most confident teams out there right now.
Personally, I'm on Cleveland tonight. The big thing with Westbrook is that he ranks close to if not best in the majors amongst starters in groundball to flyball ratio which is 2.60 to 1. and I think that plays right into one of Baltimore's weaknesses which is hitting into double plays which they lead the American league with 77 GDP and overall is 2nd in the Majors in this category.
Good luck what ever you decide tonight
-ndnfan
Personally, I'm on Cleveland tonight. The big thing with Westbrook is that he ranks close to if not best in the majors amongst starters in groundball to flyball ratio which is 2.60 to 1. and I think that plays right into one of Baltimore's weaknesses which is hitting into double plays which they lead the American league with 77 GDP and overall is 2nd in the Majors in this category.
Good luck what ever you decide tonight
-ndnfan
I LIKE CLEV AS WELL ... WESTBROOK AND CLEVELAND IN MUCH BETTER SHAPE RIGHT NOW THAN PENN AND THE ORIOLES ... ESPECIALLY THE ORIOLES ... IMHO ...
If Westbrook is the best big game guy,this team has no hope @ anything big. He plays on a team with a 41-35 record but Clev is 6-10 when he starts. Look at the team record when a pitcher starts,that all we care about. What team wins ,not who got the win.THE ONLY STAT THAT STANDS OUT TO ME IS 6-10 WHEN HE STARTS. WHY IS THAT? WHAT EVER THE REASON IT'S STILL 6-10...
bryanz said:
roy oswalt is 10-7. andy pettite is 4-7 with a 3.25 era. are these guys not good pitchers all the sudden? of course the team W/L is what ultimately counts, but to ignore run support would be foolish. as i said earlier with westbrook, he lost the season opener 1-0. and lost another 8.1 inning effort end in a 2-1 loss. 16.1 innings. 3 runs allowed. and two losses to show for it. throw in another great start vs. san diego on the road where he allowed 3 hits and 1 earned run...and lost that one too. never made the guy out to be cy young. but the numbers clearly lie, as anyone in cleveland will tell you.
bryanz said:
I was going to respond yesterday, but didn't and Probably shouldn't even respond today especially after the fact, but if you are only looking at stuff like this(team's record behind starter), In my opinion, you're going to get buried.
The fact of the matter is things change and that's past information. Westbrook didn't get any run support in many great outings and ended up taking the loss in many of those games.
Cleveland's tried a lot of lineup changes and they've finally found one that works...the offense is gelling and and they're scoring and they're winning....simple as that. 16 of Westbrooks 20 balls put into play were via the groundout and that just shows that he's the best groundball pitcher in the league and how good his stuff has been this season.
Just my .02 as well and this is coming from(just like gman) someone who folllows this team day in and day out.
Good luck to you
-ndnfan
Let me say that I agree with both you and Gman. You both have great points, I did not state my point very well . We are on the same page but you guys are off just a bit. I will pk this up at a different time very soon. I never get buried,If you look at the plays I come up with you have to know,I don't use any stat in black or white.It doesn't matter that you responded after the fact because I was not talking about yesterdays game,I was thinking of BIG GAMES AND BIG GAME PITCHERS ON BIG TEAMS.
I was responding to Gmans: If I had to pk 1 clev starter to pitch a big game it would be Westbrook. I will stand by :If he is the best they have, they will not be in the hunt for anything big. I know things change,but if you look at teams w/L when a guy starts, if he is a big game guy on a team with a chance to win big games,those #'s better be in the black or one under all year. There are no big games for teams and # 1 pitchers with 7-10 W/L. If that # goes to 13 -10, you guys were right and were ahead of the curve. I wouldn't bet on it.
Oswalt,Pet & Clem are not big game pitchers this year,they are not on team that will see a big game. My point is ,you should not bet on big game pitchers on little game teams, these are the guys to bet against in spots,thats where the value is. Case in point
rior and the Cubs yesterday, a guy who is perceived as a big game pitcher on a little game team.
rior and the Cubs yesterday, a guy who is perceived as a big game pitcher on a little game team.FINAL POINT:
FINAL POINT:
Randy Johnson is a big game pitcher right ? In his last 21 starts for Ari ,they went 7 - 14 as the chalk most of the time. Thats what I'm talking about, look it up ,I know, I talking about cashing in against so called big game pitchers, you are not going to make any big money on big game pitchers on big game teams. CLASS IS OVER!!!!
FINAL POINT:
Randy Johnson is a big game pitcher right ? In his last 21 starts for Ari ,they went 7 - 14 as the chalk most of the time. Thats what I'm talking about, look it up ,I know, I talking about cashing in against so called big game pitchers, you are not going to make any big money on big game pitchers on big game teams. CLASS IS OVER!!!!
COULDN'T HELP MYSELF
COULDN'T HELP MYSELF
The Yanks are full of used to be big game pitchers on a team that could be big game if the STARTING pitching was still BIG GAME. Brown, Moose, and Johnson are all big cash days ahead,Layed out like fresh produce, you just have to pk it out. Don't bet on this shit, sit back and pk your spots,if you can be right 50% of the time,you can't get hurt,THE PRICE WILL BE ON YOUR SIDE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
COULDN'T HELP MYSELF
The Yanks are full of used to be big game pitchers on a team that could be big game if the STARTING pitching was still BIG GAME. Brown, Moose, and Johnson are all big cash days ahead,Layed out like fresh produce, you just have to pk it out. Don't bet on this shit, sit back and pk your spots,if you can be right 50% of the time,you can't get hurt,THE PRICE WILL BE ON YOUR SIDE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
