Im noticing two books now have Denver -2.5 -130 and -135, why do books do this? It seems easier to move it to 3, but I see they are leaving it at -2.5, and making you pay more juice, any reason why?
Why do books hold certain lines?
- Thread starter CalSateguy
- Start date
I cannot answer why they always hold lines in some cases, but as for this case, it's because 3 is such a key number in what should be a closely contested game. It takes a lot to move around a key number. Moving from 4.5 to 5 wouldn't take nearly as much as moving around the key number 3.
probably got a lot of pats action and they move to -3 and denver wins by 3 then they are out a ton.:shrug: just a guess....
BECAUSE THERE IS ALOT OF MONEY ON DEN,IF THEY NOW MOVE IT TO THREE, AND DEN WINS BY THREE,THEY LOSE ON THE PEOPLE THAT TOOK DEN AT 2.5 AND PUSH ON PEOPLE THAT TAKE N.E., SOMEWHAT OF A RISK FOR BOOKS.
How about the chance they have their own opinion on the game and want to entice Denver action by leaving it at 2.5 and extra-juicing people at the same time when they lose. That is what I tend to think when I see this at the sharper books who tend to have opinionated lines. Just my two cents.
-JC
-JC
I am pretty sure this is what Olympic does. I can never beat them over the long haul. Their opinions aren't always right, but they're right often enough that I start to look to bet the opposite side at another book if they're taking a strong stand on something.JCoverS said:
I think the majority of the books are just copying lines though. A friend of mine works for a book, and says they have a trader who does nothing but watch the Don Best screen and copy lines.
theres a reason pinnacle and olympic are two of the hardest books to beat. they are great books, but they dont hand out freebies. personally, i like the challenge of trying to beat those two. my success at those two books has come and gone. pinnacle has been sharp lately
Our main objective as a player should be to reduce the edge that the book has. This combined with solid statistical,situational & emotional handicapping of the teams, players on the teams, and the public, while appling solid money management and you might make a slow steady return on your money or at least not lose drastically. The right combo of everything will allow you to make a steady profit. Easier said than done. I learn something almost daily.
Pinny had three shades this week.
DETROIT, JETS OVER, SEATTLE
All winners !!!
Watch for their shading..there is gold there
you're welcome
DETROIT, JETS OVER, SEATTLE
All winners !!!
Watch for their shading..there is gold there
you're welcome
I got into a debate with some people (who will remain nameless) at the Horseshoe Race and Sportsbook about a similar topic. The book has lost 8 out of ten weeks to the NFL, which is not unsual given the way this seaosn has gone.
Yesterday, the book lost about $50K, which may not seem like a lot of money, but when you add operating costs and the fact this is not a giant corporation with unlimited cash reseves, the loss is magnified.
The biggest losses were on DALLAS and BALTIMORE (the players had those teams big).
There's nothing that could have been done about DALLAS. But I suggested that the book needed to TAKE A STAND on some games -- especially obvious games where the public will pound one side.
I suggested that the BALT/JAX line was terrible. It came out at 6 and quickly moved to 6.5 This line should clearly have opened at 7.
The problem was -- the line was bad, then the books (including the Horseshoe) made the problem worse by NOT correcting the mistake when it was so obvious. I'm not saying that a Baltimore cover was obvious. What was obvious was the the public would ahpper the game and bet the favorite (which is exactly what happened.
The reason that was given was the the books wanted to avoid a so-called "Polish middle" where the 6, 6.5 and 7 are all covered and the book loses big if it hits right on 6 or 7. The way to sharpen the line is to allow betting early in the week (up to $1.000) and monitor the money flow and action (I'm oversimplifying). Then, a tight line will be in place by Wednesday. Furthermore, when a line is bad (that is, it gets a lot of traffic on one side), the number better be moved or the book stands the risk of losing five or six figures.
Sportsbooks are very relectant to move ONTO key numbers when they have opened a half to full point off the number. this has everything to do with getting MIDDLED.
The bottom line is -- these linesmakers are not doing their homework in many cases and are having a very hard time anticipating the public reaction to the popular teams. They continue to give bargain prices to the favorites, which is going to destroy them unless some corrections are made.
-- Nolan Dalla
Yesterday, the book lost about $50K, which may not seem like a lot of money, but when you add operating costs and the fact this is not a giant corporation with unlimited cash reseves, the loss is magnified.
The biggest losses were on DALLAS and BALTIMORE (the players had those teams big).
There's nothing that could have been done about DALLAS. But I suggested that the book needed to TAKE A STAND on some games -- especially obvious games where the public will pound one side.
I suggested that the BALT/JAX line was terrible. It came out at 6 and quickly moved to 6.5 This line should clearly have opened at 7.
The problem was -- the line was bad, then the books (including the Horseshoe) made the problem worse by NOT correcting the mistake when it was so obvious. I'm not saying that a Baltimore cover was obvious. What was obvious was the the public would ahpper the game and bet the favorite (which is exactly what happened.
The reason that was given was the the books wanted to avoid a so-called "Polish middle" where the 6, 6.5 and 7 are all covered and the book loses big if it hits right on 6 or 7. The way to sharpen the line is to allow betting early in the week (up to $1.000) and monitor the money flow and action (I'm oversimplifying). Then, a tight line will be in place by Wednesday. Furthermore, when a line is bad (that is, it gets a lot of traffic on one side), the number better be moved or the book stands the risk of losing five or six figures.
Sportsbooks are very relectant to move ONTO key numbers when they have opened a half to full point off the number. this has everything to do with getting MIDDLED.
The bottom line is -- these linesmakers are not doing their homework in many cases and are having a very hard time anticipating the public reaction to the popular teams. They continue to give bargain prices to the favorites, which is going to destroy them unless some corrections are made.
-- Nolan Dalla
the new bookmakers
the new bookmakers
have no guts to hold on a #,they rather go to -120. then 3.5 -6.5 ion balt nolan was available until sun morn at leroys and terribles they did go to 7 if im not mistaken...i know for a fact that terrible herbsts had grreenbay-6 and rams -6.5 by game time.......the boys went from 4.5 to 6 ...benny stuk to the line the BIG books use,tellw.s he should adjust w/leroys line in my opinion,or terribles...tonite they had pats+3/-120
the new bookmakers
have no guts to hold on a #,they rather go to -120. then 3.5 -6.5 ion balt nolan was available until sun morn at leroys and terribles they did go to 7 if im not mistaken...i know for a fact that terrible herbsts had grreenbay-6 and rams -6.5 by game time.......the boys went from 4.5 to 6 ...benny stuk to the line the BIG books use,tellw.s he should adjust w/leroys line in my opinion,or terribles...tonite they had pats+3/-120
