Why do streaks occure the way they do?

[yyz]

Just wondering why they happen.

I was cold as ice for the first 3 and a half month of bases, including some streaks where I would lose for days.

In mid July, I started nailing games left and right, and it went for a month. I wiped out a -40 something unit record, and went +7 units.

Now, once again, I am in a funk. Losing four straight days, and going back into negitive numbers once more.

Why does this happen, fellas? Every one of you has had the same thing happen. "Can't go wrong!" to "Can't pick my nose!"

I often thought about fading my plays after an extended win streak. You know....."It has to turn soon!" But going against your plays is something a player just can't do.

But you guys hear me, right? "I suck so bad, I should play the opposite of what I like today!" Have you not been there?

So, again:

Why is this game so cyclical? Why do our wins and losses come in clumps?

If you have an answer, I would love to hear it!

Also, would you ever have the guts to fade your plays? Time the "streak"?

ie, "I've won 6 out of 8 days, now I will fade my plays." We all want our run to go forever, but they all must dim at some point.

I hope I am not getting too muddled here.

Feedback?

------------------
"If grandma had balls, she'd be grandpa!"

 

[buddy]

yyz,

Go back and look at why you lost.

Was there an argument for the other side, the opposing pitcher?

Were some of these losses "ah, what the hell" plays or did you force a play?

Some handicappers have a betting philosophy of "No Losers". Is yours similar or do you bet for the "action?"

 

[hello there]

I have only four words to say about bad streaks that can sum it all up...

"The Sun Also Rises"

 

[HONUS]

Ah, "hello there", one of my favorite books.

Anyway, they occur the same way they do in pro sports. Any baseball team, for example, will win 10 in a row and that same season lose 10 in a row. Find an answer for that, and you've found your answer.

I'd say look at the Twins (my newly adopted team....good timing on my part), some might argue that their current losing streak is just bringing their record back to the norm.

So, if you've been hitting at 70% and you are a great capper that can hit at 60%, you are going to start winning at only 50% to return to the norm.

Lesson learned, quit while you're at the 70%. Ya right!

 

[hello there]

HONUS,
Wait, you mean someone out there has a book called "The Sun Also Rises"??? I thought I was the only one who came up with that quote??? Oh well, that guy must be a genius.

 

[yyz]

I quit forcing plays years ago, Buddy. Although, this season I have wagered on more baseball games than normal.

It just seems so odd that the ebb and flow of winning 8 of ten plays, or 5 days in a row, gets followed by a similar losing session.

I could see this with a coin flip, but when you handicap a game, you feel you have the edge every time, right?

I mean, I don't wager unless I feel I am on the right side! I think if I claw back to + numbers this season, I will quit until the post season starts.

 

[KotysDad]

YYZ....

Aside from stating the obvious "steaks happen", look at these numbers which have been theoretically proven to be pretty accurate. Whenever I think about gambling, I use probability and coin flips wherever possible. In alot of cases it gives you good insight into what is going on. Now these numbers might be a little big, but they should give you some idea into how common streaks really are. If you were to flip a fair coin 1,000,000 times (I know you are saying "who in the hell makes a million bets? lol .... just bear with me and see what happens to the numbers), you would expect to see a certain number of streaks of heads or tails (wins or losses). Before reading the answers below, in your mind take a guess as to how many 12-long streaks you would expect to see and when you get to the bottom of this post, see if you were close. By a 12-long streak, I mean 12 consecutive wins or losses.

Ok, now for the data....... assume you flipped a coin 1,000,000 times and record the number of times you saw "streaks" of certain lengths. I will use lengths 5 through 12. For each length I will give an approximate number of how many streaks of that length you could expect to see if you were to assume the coin you are flipping is a fair coin...meaning equally likely to turn up heads or tails.

5-long streak: 7500

Just for the record, this means that if you flipped your coin a million times, you would expect to have approximately 7500 5-game winning streaks or 5-game losing streaks.

6-long streak: 4000
7-long streak: 2000
8-long streak: 1000
9-long streak: 500
10-long streak: 250
11-long streak: 125
12-long streak: 60

I think you see the pattern here. I am sure not many people have 12-game winning streaks occuring every week or 12-game losing streaks, but the point is that if you bet often enough, the big streaks (both good and bad) are inevitable. Scale these numbers down a bit and you will probably see that what's happening to you (although it may seem outrageous) "probably" is par for the course.

 

[HONUS]

hello there:

A genius: is (or was). My favorite author: Hemingway. Great book if you like that kind of stuff. Paris/Spain, early 20's. Lots of booze. Sometimes I wish a time machine existed...that's where I'd be.

 

[buckeye]

This is a very interesting topic I have often pondered as well.

How does binomial distribution, what Koty'sdad is on about, relate to winning and losing streaks in the "near binomial" world of sports betting? Will a short term streak cause a "regression to the mean", or short term reverse streak. If a traditional .300 hitter starts the year batting .200 for 6 weeks, is he more likely to hit .350 for the rest of the year to get back to his traditional .300, or will he "just" revert to .300 form and have a bit of an off year? I tend to think he will bat .350, it all depends. So if you know your traditional capping %'s, and you are significantly higher or lower, it may hold some merit that a correction may come.

For my capping it seems to happen a bit. Many of my best, or worst, weeks follow the opposite. I rarely do anything "to take advantage", as I like consistency and not chasing or pressing, but it does happen. I don't like to make bigger plays based on anything but the strengths and merits of my picks, not external factors like what kind of streak I'm in.

The fallacy to look out for though is with casino games. Just because 8 reds in a row have come up, that doesn't change the odds for the next spin ( unless the wheel is bias ). Once you're in a streak, there is no way to know it will/won't last. Though 9 red streaks are "rarer" than 8 red streaks, in the grand scheme, once you hit 8 those previous eight have NO BEARING on the next spin. Each is based on the independent odds, the law of independent trials ( unless you have a "clocker" on your side ). Many bogus schemes and progressions are based on this fallacy, so don't be fooled. Whether craps, BJ, roulette, etc. you have no chance using such schemes.

GL

 

[KotysDad]

Buckeye,

You bring up a good point with respect to these "memoryless" games of chance. The roulette wheel is unaware that it just spit out 10 straight black numbers just like a fair coin is unaware that it just came up heads 15 straight times. That 16th toss is still just as likely to be a Head than a Tail.

When I gamble on sports, I try to treat it like a "memoryless" game of chance mainly because I choose to look at it the way I look at coin flips, which is why I dont chase good money to bad...BUT....on the other hand, sports betting really isnt a memoryless game of chance. When a team has lost 10 straight games, they are well aware that they have lost 10 straight and will go into that 11th game (hopefully) with more focus than they went into the 1st game with. Given this though, I still try not to bet with this mentality because I well remember the year back in 1988 or 1989 when my beloved Orioles started the year 0-for-April. That streak would have ruined all but Bill Gates that year.

 

[buckeye]

KD,
I was referring more to a bettor's streaks than the teams he's betting on. I do think a team's streaks CAN be a reasonable angle to play, but I don't do it that much as it is just one factor that should not override the line and other capping factors.

One "phenomenon" I have noticed is some regression to the mean. On Sunday's, if someone in my pool who is typically a mediocre finisher starts out 7-0 on the early games, it seems much more likely that they will lose the majority of their remaining picks than to stay that "hot", or even finish 4-4 to close. Every once in a while they will finish with an incredible week, but it is much more likely to be one of the "better players" that has a smash em up week then a middle of the roader. I don't often do it, but I am tempted to fade their late games in such a situation - even if it is MY POOL PICKS I AM FADING! I've done well whenever I do it, but it is rare since that is a weird method to 'cap on. We had one guy who was nearly last EVERY YEAR. If he was still around I'd have no problem fading his picks as they'd be a solid >56% without a doubt!

Anyone else take "fade" advantage of situations or against "born losers" they know? Kind of reminds me of two scenes from "Let It Ride". The first is when he asks all the "losers" who they like "I'm taking a poll" until only the #2 is left. The second is when "loser" Looney says "Whatever you do don't bet on that horse, it has something wrong with its eye" as it winks at him. Classic!

[This message has been edited by buckeye (edited 08-24-2001).]

 

[yyz]

"Stuffy, Rat-Bastards!"

I love that movie!

By the way......my shit streak is still going after a 2-4 -4.15 unit evening!