why has total gone to 47?
- Thread starter xerri
- Start date
On Monday's the public is "usually" on the favorite and the over, trying to chase their losses from yesterday...the game is too close to call, so the public is betting the over bigtime...
--DF
--DF
It's MNF... JOE PUBLIC bets the FAVORITE and OVER for the most part, and this game gets more action than any other since it's the ONLY GAME in town. No other reason for it, except the PUBLIC likes to see points, and are willing to bet they get em. Having high profile games go OVER, ala PHILA/DALLAS last nite and SF/STL last week doesn't help. JETS are also well known for BIG games on MNF and many may be playing that angle. Personally, I played the OVER last nite when I saw it at 44.5, but ONLY because I knew I could always buy it back and try and middle. I may now play a JETS/UNDER teaser taking JETS +3.5 and UNDER 53.5.
The move from 45.5 to 47 means what. You needed 46 to go over to start with if you liked over. So you now you need one more point. Seems easy does'nt it. GL. You get a couple talking heads on TV maybe a couple of services people trust talking over. The bucks come in and up she goes. You can't get that extra point with out either a TD or FG. There is no way to get just 1 point. It could be big.
Xerri,
In January, I asked this question to a very respected handicapper...
question for Ted re: line movement.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ted, In one of your excellent essays you said, " I will rarely bet a game that has moved a point or more towards the side I like. The value is gone from that side, and the house beats the player more often than not." Does this apply to both basketball and football or one sport more than another? Thanks Much, buddy
Buzkil
Registered User
(1/11/01 12:33:48 pm)
Line Movement
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IF we use 'rarely' as our grounds here, the answer is Yes -- I don't like to bet with a line move very often -- I'd much rather bet against it. But line moves are extremely different in hoops as opposed to football. There is much more public money involved in setting a football line, whereas hoops liines are set to beat professionals almost exclusively -- kind of like lines for the Big West or MAC conferences in football. Also, there's much more buy-back action in hoops as pro's search for middles that are easier to come by in hoops. In oither words, lines often move one way, then swing back the other way in a matter of hours. Since basketball lines exist for only a day, as opposed to football lines that exist for a week before the game is played, there's less of a chance to dissect the moves for what they are. Is it an individual pro who likes a side, or an across the board move by a syndicate, or just the public hopping onto a side in a publiic game in a big way --each type of move has a different feel to it, and a different strategy regarding betting with/against/ignoring the line movement.
This week has been a lousy one in terms of betting against the line moves in hoops, and these streaks will happen. But the concept of looking for value via betting against the line moves is one that should remain profitable in the long term for years to come.
xerri, understanding line moves can be tricky. You have to be able to correctly interpret the information. It can mean one thing one day, and something entirely different the next.
Lastly, I am playing "under" the total in this game.
[This message has been edited by buddy (edited 10-01-2001).]
In January, I asked this question to a very respected handicapper...
question for Ted re: line movement.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ted, In one of your excellent essays you said, " I will rarely bet a game that has moved a point or more towards the side I like. The value is gone from that side, and the house beats the player more often than not." Does this apply to both basketball and football or one sport more than another? Thanks Much, buddy
Buzkil
Registered User
(1/11/01 12:33:48 pm)
Line Movement
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IF we use 'rarely' as our grounds here, the answer is Yes -- I don't like to bet with a line move very often -- I'd much rather bet against it. But line moves are extremely different in hoops as opposed to football. There is much more public money involved in setting a football line, whereas hoops liines are set to beat professionals almost exclusively -- kind of like lines for the Big West or MAC conferences in football. Also, there's much more buy-back action in hoops as pro's search for middles that are easier to come by in hoops. In oither words, lines often move one way, then swing back the other way in a matter of hours. Since basketball lines exist for only a day, as opposed to football lines that exist for a week before the game is played, there's less of a chance to dissect the moves for what they are. Is it an individual pro who likes a side, or an across the board move by a syndicate, or just the public hopping onto a side in a publiic game in a big way --each type of move has a different feel to it, and a different strategy regarding betting with/against/ignoring the line movement.
This week has been a lousy one in terms of betting against the line moves in hoops, and these streaks will happen. But the concept of looking for value via betting against the line moves is one that should remain profitable in the long term for years to come.
xerri, understanding line moves can be tricky. You have to be able to correctly interpret the information. It can mean one thing one day, and something entirely different the next.
Lastly, I am playing "under" the total in this game.
[This message has been edited by buddy (edited 10-01-2001).]
I agree with what you are saying Randercity, but what is your take on the side not moving at all? The total begins to climb, some of which is from Joe Pub, but I would have also expected the NYJ line move with it. Any thoughts?
I understand why lines move. I was actually asking why so many people on the over. Jets game was 10-3 last week and they will probably run a lot with Martin. 49ers defense is also much improved. I agree the move could be big. At 44.5 a 28-17 score went over, a 27-17 score went under. I have decided on under 23.5 for the first half. I think both teams will try and establish a running game. I think there may be more scoring in the second half if the game does go over.
