Why no answers?

[kjls04202]

I was dissapointed that I never got any insight or feedback to my poser in The Open Forum,so I am trying again.

What about some advice on staking? If say Love is 33/1 first 6 a quarter with Tote but 40/1 first 5 a quarter elsewhere. I have always favoured splitting my bet say ?20.00 each way becomes ?10.00 each way with each firm. I have always found it a difficult poser and never really knew the right answer. Is 8.25 a place first six better than 10.00 a place first five. I know the win part.What would all you forumites do?

 

[Stanley]

Because it was a very busy week ... the Open Championship!

Basically you have to find a means of comparing the probable returns from each bookie.

If one book is offering 33/1 @ 1/4 1-2-3-4-5-6 then you have 1 chance to win 33 times your stake and 6 chances to win 33/4 times your stake

So coeff = 1*33 + 6*33/4 = 82.5

For the other book offering 40/1 @ 1/4 1-2-3-4-5 then you have 1 chance to win 40 times your stake and 5 chances to win 40/4 times your stake

So coeff = 1*40 + 5*40/4 = 90

Clearly the 40/1 with five places represents better value.

You can use this to compare prices between books that offer different place terms (1/4 or 1/5).

 

[kjls04202]

Many Thanks Stan.

 

[bettingmad]

The 40/1 is mathematically better value but that is loaded on the win side, what if he finishes 6th?

I would take the 40/1 for the ?20 win bet but shop around for a ?20 place only bet. Skybet accept place only and were 1/4 first 6 on the Open. Failing that I would stick to your split stakes on each, as how many winners do you back compared to places? There is more likelihood he will be placed than win.

 

[Stanley]

Bmad has a valid point if you think your player may earn a place win at best as not all players are as likely to finish 1st as 5th, but in the above example, there is basically no difference in the place returns:

6 places @ 33/4 gives

6 * 33/4 = 49.50

5 places @ 40/4 gives

5 * 40/4 = 50

So if there is no significant difference in the place returns between the two, then always side with the book that gives you the highest payout for the win IMO.

 

[smoothie]

. . .

 

[Stanley]

If the place returns are basically the same, then you are simply getting a free bet at 7/1 on the player to win (40/1 - 33/1).

Another advantage of taking the 40/1 with 5 places is that you can lay off part of win element on Betfair (or WSEX interactives) if the player is in contention and so lock up more profit.

If you were just looking for the greatest probability of securing a win rather than expected profit, then you should look at the top-10 betting offered by Nordicbet (and Gameday have offered it in the past).

 

[bettingmad]

Tell that to those who backed 6th placed Brian Davis & Freddie Jacobson in the Open last week

 

[kjls04202]

Thanks guys. Certainly gives me food for thought and lots more options and possibilities. The only thing with thinking about getting placed is that I have never backed anyone each way that I did not think could win. Otherwise I would bet the place only option. As far as the win bet goes then sure you are not going to back as many winners but everything is viewed as the long term and how many winners do you need at the prices we play at. I only really play the US Tour(excepting The British Open) and generally back 2 players per event each way. Last year I only had 2 winners all year but they were 150/1 + 80/1. I had a further 10 places. This year I am yet to back a winner but have come close especially with Bjorn last week and Love. But i have had enough places to at least keep me going. I always live in hope of the next winner.
Thanks again for the responses.

 

[bettingmad]

I have always been a believer in trying to protect my stake so have always bet e/w, though I do this just as a cover for the stake. I would rarely do ?10 e/w at say 33/1 my bet would be ?15 win and ?5 place. Recently I am sick of getting players in contention who finish top dozen or so but not in the magic places!

Instead of 2 players e/w every week how do you think you would have done using the same stake for 4 win only bets? Some of my alternative choices have won recently and it's annoying if your selection(s) also just miss a place!

 

[kjls04202]

You are probably right BM. I remember earlier in the year I had a run of 6 consecutive weeks when one of my players finished 6th. How galling that was. I would like to check it out but would not have kept records of my alternative choices so it would be difficult. But it is worth bearing in mind in the future.