Why the Bears is the only play

[Houston]

I've been around here awhile mostly just reading opinions on why to take this side or that. One thing I've learned is that for prime time games, alot of the capping part of the science goes out the window and I have to just look at the line and say "what is the man wanting me to do here?" It's been hashed over many times lately, public perception, plaid pants guy, etc.

Tonight we have Farve vs Miller (who?). Favre is excellent on Monday night, beat the Bears 200 times in a row, all of Bears defensive starters are out, etc etc.

Then why is the man giving poitns to the Packers? The man knows all of these things. It's not like he's been out of the country for 15 years and doesn't know who Brett Farve is. He knows the Bears D is banged up. So what does he do? He dangles that Packers +1 in front of us and watches the Bears win.

Bears -1

He burned me last night when I took the Browns. I was thinking "Oh man that crowd will be enough to win that game alone! It's going to be crazy in there. They hate the Ravens. The Ravens suck." I forgot that the man also knew that the crowd was going to be crazy and they they hate the Ravens. And that the Ravens D is not that bad after all.

 

[edludes]

This has been exactly what I've been thinking all week as I looked at this number.You can see the Packer backers here so excited about getting their point that they're peeing their pants.A concern for me in taking the Bears is Gbays bagel ATS (0-4) so far this season,which is likely to turn around soon,and the well-noted Packer success against this team.Enjoyed your take and good luck.

 

[PUHD]

Some very good insight Houston, but I think that tonight is very much the exception. I think the line reflects HFA for the bears, the packers "Luck" so far this season, and the supposed bear defense. Brett Fahvvvvrah is definitely a household name that suggests "bet big money on me joe public", but tonight Favre and the packers play convincing football.

 

[JCDunkDogs]

analysis of public perception

analysis of public perception

NFL Plays 12-9
College 1-0

In the distant past (i.e., two or more years ago), the Packers were the public's team. The bookmaker couldn't set the number high enough to drive the casual bettor away. Then last season the Bears went 13-3 and made the playoffs, and all those city folk got on the wagering bandwagon.

Today, those same Chicago backers still believe (for whatever reason) that their team actually can repeat that outstanding season mark. They are trapped in time, seeing what they want to see, and not the product that is actually on the field: a team that is one missed field goal away from a 1-3 mark.

Public perception sets the line, and a large percentage of tonight's action is going to side with those 13-3 Bears from last year.

Some figures on tonight's match-up:
Bears opp. QB rating: 102.6 - Packers opp QB rating: 67.6
Bears average ypc: 3.2 - Packers average ypc 4.5
Jim Miller's QB rating: 88.8 - Bret Farve's QB rating: 94.1

Based on these figures, it looks like a GB play, right? But hold your wallet shut for a second. GB is allowing opposing teams 4.9 ypc on the ground (ouch!). If you're going to play the Pack, which is probably the smarter play, be ready for a long night. Personally, I'll take the over 45 points.

GLTA

 

[puckfan]

Houston - I like the Bears too but the linemakers have no clue who's going to win, they're just posting a line that will get equal action on both sides. Favre will certainly get some attention simply because its Favre, but the Bears are a home team on Monday night against a hated rival - this is enough to put some on Chicago. Chicago -1 just happens to be the current line...
GL