Copied from Fox but I though it was a good read.
On the Mark: Pats flat-out dominant
In the third quarter of the Patriots' 56-10 rout of the Buffalo Bills, the press boss at Ralph Wilson Stadium became still with surprise when Tom Brady threw an incomplete pass. Even more shocking: One of the Bills' linebackers actually knocked him down.
With the bookmakers giving Buffalo 16.5 points, the Bills (along with the Dolphins in Week 7) were said to be the NFL's biggest home-field underdog since 1992. Still, that number proved 30 points light ? and the Bills didn't even play that badly.
Jerry Sullivan, a columnist for The Buffalo News, was beside himself. "The Bills lose by 46 at home and I can't even rip them," he said. "What the hell's going on here?"
What's going on is an anomaly, something unlike anything in modern professional football. And even people like me, guys who can't stand Bill Belichick, have to admit a keen interest in New England. It's almost impossible not to watch the Patriots, as you've never watched anything quite like them before.
The Patriots are more than undefeated. They're beating teams by an average of 25.4 points a game, a figure that violates the artful science of bookmakers. According to the NFL's Randall Liu, only one team in the history of professional football team exceeded this margin. The 1942 Chicago Bears, playing in a league whose ranks were decimated by the World War II, outscored opponents by an average of 26.5 points a game. (That Bears team, as it happened, went 11-0, only to lose 14-6 to Washington in the championship game.) Two other teams averaged better than 20-point differentials: the 1941 Bears (22.6) and the 1920 Buffalo All-Americans (20.6).
But again, that was all before the advent of facemasks. In the modern era, there is no precedent for what the Patriots are doing. Consider the undefeated Miami Dolphins of 1972. Their regular-season margin of victory was 15.2. After the Super Bowl, it was 13.6. By contrast, the 2007 Patriots aren't just beating the odds. They're beating the oddsmakers, the only really smart guys in sports.
"It's been tough with the Patriots," said Sean Van Patten, an oddsmaker with Las Vegas Sports Consultants, a much-respected outfit that furnishes opening lines for most of the Nevada casinos. "Every week we've raised the numbers."
And every week, it seems, the Patriots raise them some more. At this point, the parlay sheets come with two seemingly free bets: New England and the over. Even the smart-money types who typically bet the underdogs are staying away from Pats.
Of course, this run has generated some interesting propositions. Going into Week 7, the prospect of an undefeated season was considered unlikely. A $100 bet would get you $270. Now those odds have all but turned upside down. The Pats are minus-160 to go undefeated, meaning you have to bet $160 to win $100.
For the record, they're giving 18 points against the Eagles this Sunday, 22 if Donovan McNabb doesn't play. Another point of interest: they're 24.5-point favorites against Miami next month. Part of the reason, Van Patten said, is Don Shula, coach of the '72 Dolphins, who recently suggested that Belichick's team might deserve an asterisk on account of Spygate.
So disregard coaches and players who say it's not personal. It's very personal, and none more so than the Patriots' date with the Jets Dec. 16 in Foxborough. The line is already 22, a number owing much to the fact that the Spygate whistle-blower was Jets coach Eric Mangini, a former Belichick protege.
"We definitely factor that in," said Van Patten, "Belichick wants to kill these guys. He'll put up 100 if he can."
It'll be fun watching him try. In the meantime, as no one figures the Patriots to actually lose a game, the sports books might want to come up with some new prop bets. For instance, at this point, it should be even money as to whether Brady gets his uniform dirty.
On the Mark: Pats flat-out dominant
In the third quarter of the Patriots' 56-10 rout of the Buffalo Bills, the press boss at Ralph Wilson Stadium became still with surprise when Tom Brady threw an incomplete pass. Even more shocking: One of the Bills' linebackers actually knocked him down.
With the bookmakers giving Buffalo 16.5 points, the Bills (along with the Dolphins in Week 7) were said to be the NFL's biggest home-field underdog since 1992. Still, that number proved 30 points light ? and the Bills didn't even play that badly.
Jerry Sullivan, a columnist for The Buffalo News, was beside himself. "The Bills lose by 46 at home and I can't even rip them," he said. "What the hell's going on here?"
What's going on is an anomaly, something unlike anything in modern professional football. And even people like me, guys who can't stand Bill Belichick, have to admit a keen interest in New England. It's almost impossible not to watch the Patriots, as you've never watched anything quite like them before.
The Patriots are more than undefeated. They're beating teams by an average of 25.4 points a game, a figure that violates the artful science of bookmakers. According to the NFL's Randall Liu, only one team in the history of professional football team exceeded this margin. The 1942 Chicago Bears, playing in a league whose ranks were decimated by the World War II, outscored opponents by an average of 26.5 points a game. (That Bears team, as it happened, went 11-0, only to lose 14-6 to Washington in the championship game.) Two other teams averaged better than 20-point differentials: the 1941 Bears (22.6) and the 1920 Buffalo All-Americans (20.6).
But again, that was all before the advent of facemasks. In the modern era, there is no precedent for what the Patriots are doing. Consider the undefeated Miami Dolphins of 1972. Their regular-season margin of victory was 15.2. After the Super Bowl, it was 13.6. By contrast, the 2007 Patriots aren't just beating the odds. They're beating the oddsmakers, the only really smart guys in sports.
"It's been tough with the Patriots," said Sean Van Patten, an oddsmaker with Las Vegas Sports Consultants, a much-respected outfit that furnishes opening lines for most of the Nevada casinos. "Every week we've raised the numbers."
And every week, it seems, the Patriots raise them some more. At this point, the parlay sheets come with two seemingly free bets: New England and the over. Even the smart-money types who typically bet the underdogs are staying away from Pats.
Of course, this run has generated some interesting propositions. Going into Week 7, the prospect of an undefeated season was considered unlikely. A $100 bet would get you $270. Now those odds have all but turned upside down. The Pats are minus-160 to go undefeated, meaning you have to bet $160 to win $100.
For the record, they're giving 18 points against the Eagles this Sunday, 22 if Donovan McNabb doesn't play. Another point of interest: they're 24.5-point favorites against Miami next month. Part of the reason, Van Patten said, is Don Shula, coach of the '72 Dolphins, who recently suggested that Belichick's team might deserve an asterisk on account of Spygate.
So disregard coaches and players who say it's not personal. It's very personal, and none more so than the Patriots' date with the Jets Dec. 16 in Foxborough. The line is already 22, a number owing much to the fact that the Spygate whistle-blower was Jets coach Eric Mangini, a former Belichick protege.
"We definitely factor that in," said Van Patten, "Belichick wants to kill these guys. He'll put up 100 if he can."
It'll be fun watching him try. In the meantime, as no one figures the Patriots to actually lose a game, the sports books might want to come up with some new prop bets. For instance, at this point, it should be even money as to whether Brady gets his uniform dirty.
