Why XXX Will Not Make $52.5 Million

[Myron]

1 - Very violent movies do not usually do that well as they are a turn off to many of the older set and are restricted to younger folk.

2- Signs is in its 2nd week and will take away a lot of it's money

3- No REAL big stars in it.

4- Spy Kids 2 will be the attraction for many younger folk and their parents.

5- Studio Estimates for the film is $36 million. Unless its Spiderman movies generally don't vary that much from the estimates.

Bottom Line:
XXX Under 52.5 million at WSEX for 3 units

 

[Nick Douglas]

I would strongly advise against this bet. I am not saying that under is the right bet, either, but there is a ton of momentum behind this film. Diesel has been everywhere on talk shows this week and there is a ton of hype. The number is way too high to play the over but there is no way on earth I would bet the under at any price.

 

[dawgball]

EVERY teenager with a tinge of angst in the land is going to see this movie.

Also most men in their late twenties and early thirties (without families) will also be interested in this movie.

I think the Over is the best play, but I do not wager on these things--so I guess my opinion does not matter.

 

[Hoops]

Yeah, way too much hype and pub for this film to think about play the under. No chance that this only does near 36 million.

 

[Myron]

Studio estimates now revised to $52 million.

I still disagree as there is too much competition out there with Signs and Spy Kids 2.

Also usually movies that make that kind of scratch are ones everyone is talking about - Spiderman, Star Wars 2 etc. I haven't heard anybody excited about this movie. Also the big draw for Signs was Mel Gibson. I haven't heard anyone say
"Wow I have to go see Van Diesel." What I am mostly hearing is "Who the hell is Van Diesel?"

 

[dawgball]

I think it's Vin Diesel, and I would get used to him. I feel like he is going to be around for a while.

 

[Myron]

Hmm.. Line now down to -170 from -210 for the OVER and the gross dropped from $52.5 million to $50 million.

Looks like the smart money agrees with me

 

[TheShrimp]

I like Vin Diesel, and I'd certainly heard of him.

First of all, he was the voice of the Iron Giant. Also, he played a sort of bad guy in an overlooked sci-fi pic called "Pitch Black" -- a pretty pedestrian plot, but a good "look", and some interesting themes.

He's directed some movies and supposedly has a lot of training as an actor. I tend to like him more than Arnold or The Rock.

But, for what it was, "Fast & The Furious" was decent, much better than "Driven". Same director as "XXX", so if you like lots of action, quick cuts, and explosions, this is probably going to be all right.

I think it is getting a lot of press, too. I've seen tons of ads for it (of course, I watch sports, and they're going after the young male with this one) and there was a pretty big write-up in Newsweek about Vin and the director (something cohen).

I'd have to say it will probably do 52M.

 

[acehistr8]

Two digital-equipped studios in the DC area are offering 12:01am showings tomorrow morning of XXX. When Star Wars came out, I distinctly remember an interview with one of the theatre owners. He said we only do showings like this if presales (online) of tickets are so high for the weekend that we think demand warrants it. I see this as a sign this movie could do very very well this weekend.

Over.

 

[Simply In The Red]

You are forgetting one particular crowd. I know quite a few girls that are going to see this film to check out Vin Diesel. Don't underestimate girl buying power. :nono:

 

[60 SEC ASSASSIN]

Looks like you were right, Myron. Estimates has XXX pulling in 46 million this weekend. I think Signs pulling in 30 million for the weekend had something to do with it.

 

[dogface]

MAybe it's my attitude or my look...

MAybe it's my attitude or my look...

But I just saw the movie and loved it. I was on the edge the whole time, and Vin Diesel has some great lines!

Just my humble 2 cents!

TSI/dogfface

 

[dawgball]

Hate to disagree, but this movie is awful!

It has SOME good action scenes, but I like it when action scenes are somewhat of being in the same city as the ballpark when it comes to reality. I'm not asking them to be real, but at least attempt for something believable.

Myron--If it did go over, you should at least get a push for how terrible this movie was.

 

[wondo]

Oh boy Dogface!

The only other people I hear talking about Diesel are the girls! I'm a little worried about you!

Just kidding about you, dogface, don't take offense....

how'd the bet turn out?

 

[dogface]

hmmmm

hmmmm

What bet would that be?

Is somone hinting I may be ON THE OTHER TEAM!

Dang, my wife and newborn would be shocked!

No offense taken, I KNOW BETTER!

As for rating the movie awful, very disappointed in reading that.

SPAWN...Now that was an AWFUL movie!

TSI

 

[dawgball]

The avalanche was bad, but the worst scene was in the drug camp. What the hell did he keep ramping off of. It was like the bike was spring-loaded. Then the jump through the barb wire--just too much for me.

Allright, let's not say awful, but I wish directors would realize that every scene does not have to be so over the top. I think you lose more audience than you gain by doing this.

Vin Diesel is not a terrible actor, but he will be badly type-casted if he continues to only do movies like this.

 

[AR182]

Myron,

Good call!

 

[Myron]

I just found out why Blue Crush is now a virtual sure thing over Pluto Nash. Apparently because Signs is such an ongoing blockbuster 487 theatres that were to show Pluto Nash instead decided to continue to show Signs .

 

[Nick Douglas]

Nice hit, Myron. GL inthe future.