falcons +1.5
seems as though all the good cappers on this site and other sites have taken the cards over the falcons, which makes me somewhat nervous about my pick.
the reasons i have seen that people are taking the cards are home dog (doesnt apply anymore because the cards are now a slight fave, warner with the playoff exp (that was 8 years ago and even with the greatest show on turf (rams) they didnt run up large scores in the playoffs, as i recall they put up 11 points in the championship game and 23 against the titans, the next year managed 17 against the pats...this was with warner in his prime, holt in his prime, faulk in his prime, martz when he was still considered a genius..
so the cards are at home with a "prolific offense", only prob is that warner is far past his prime and is a turnover machine, and they dont have a rb that could hold faulk's jock (edge too old and fumble prone, hightowner hit rookie wall). on top of that 2/3 of their wins and presumably their gaudy stats have come against 3 of the worst teams in football. they locked up the division early on which in my opinion is/was a detriment to them because they coasted the last 5 or 6 games of the season getting their ass kicked multiple times in the process. their "quality" wins are gainst the cowboys (non playofff team) bills (non playoff team) and dolphins (i doubt they could stay in a gm with teh dolphins at this point in the season).
they dont have the exp/talent/mindset to suddenly be able to "turn the switch" and ramp up to playoff intensity, they are not the spurs. as an example look at what happened to tb last year. they coasted at the end of the season and got killed by the nyg who were in jeopardy of even making hte playoffs and played out the entire season.
ryan is a rookie and that seems to scare people off, but its not on his shoulders, he's got a great running game to back him up. he's not required to drop back 35 times. ive seen the stats cited that say turner didnt run so well on the road and that cards defense was stout against the run, but again look at the competition. atl is playing teams like carolina and tb on the road and cards are playing teams like niners/hawks/rams. falcons have quality road wins in minn/sd (off top of my head) ..also atl played balls to the wall the entire season, they dont have to suddenly turn on the intensity like az must try to do.
i'll take a team (atl) that relies on a 5'10 240 pound rb over a team (az) that relies on a turnover prone qb who's old and padded stats vs rams/niners/hawks and lost 4 of last six games going into playoffs
other factors that prob dont influence game but make me feel better are az almost had a blackout for this game (wtf its a playoff gm?!!) and article i read in one of the papers about warner having a pool party and hardly anyone from team showing up,.. and domestic dispute larry fitzgerald had that showed up in papers recently
seems as though all the good cappers on this site and other sites have taken the cards over the falcons, which makes me somewhat nervous about my pick.
the reasons i have seen that people are taking the cards are home dog (doesnt apply anymore because the cards are now a slight fave, warner with the playoff exp (that was 8 years ago and even with the greatest show on turf (rams) they didnt run up large scores in the playoffs, as i recall they put up 11 points in the championship game and 23 against the titans, the next year managed 17 against the pats...this was with warner in his prime, holt in his prime, faulk in his prime, martz when he was still considered a genius..
so the cards are at home with a "prolific offense", only prob is that warner is far past his prime and is a turnover machine, and they dont have a rb that could hold faulk's jock (edge too old and fumble prone, hightowner hit rookie wall). on top of that 2/3 of their wins and presumably their gaudy stats have come against 3 of the worst teams in football. they locked up the division early on which in my opinion is/was a detriment to them because they coasted the last 5 or 6 games of the season getting their ass kicked multiple times in the process. their "quality" wins are gainst the cowboys (non playofff team) bills (non playoff team) and dolphins (i doubt they could stay in a gm with teh dolphins at this point in the season).
they dont have the exp/talent/mindset to suddenly be able to "turn the switch" and ramp up to playoff intensity, they are not the spurs. as an example look at what happened to tb last year. they coasted at the end of the season and got killed by the nyg who were in jeopardy of even making hte playoffs and played out the entire season.
ryan is a rookie and that seems to scare people off, but its not on his shoulders, he's got a great running game to back him up. he's not required to drop back 35 times. ive seen the stats cited that say turner didnt run so well on the road and that cards defense was stout against the run, but again look at the competition. atl is playing teams like carolina and tb on the road and cards are playing teams like niners/hawks/rams. falcons have quality road wins in minn/sd (off top of my head) ..also atl played balls to the wall the entire season, they dont have to suddenly turn on the intensity like az must try to do.
i'll take a team (atl) that relies on a 5'10 240 pound rb over a team (az) that relies on a turnover prone qb who's old and padded stats vs rams/niners/hawks and lost 4 of last six games going into playoffs
other factors that prob dont influence game but make me feel better are az almost had a blackout for this game (wtf its a playoff gm?!!) and article i read in one of the papers about warner having a pool party and hardly anyone from team showing up,.. and domestic dispute larry fitzgerald had that showed up in papers recently
