wild card weekend

[kosar]

posted nfl - 33-18


Balt + 3 (-120) (sorry Ironlock)

There seems to be a slight over-reaction to the horrid, anemic performance of Baltimore's offense on Monday night. Of course it was all that and less.

However, the fact remains that Miami's offense is no better.

While Minor has given them some versatility lately out of the backfield, their main horse (Thomas) has been atrocious this year, and Fiedler's arm looks as noodle-like as it did this time last year when he had shoulder problems.

There is little case to be made that Baltimore has a potent offense, and I don't wish to try to make it seem so. However, they *were* able to run at will with their RB by committee against an admittedly horrible Minnesota defense, and for the most part have been able to come through when necessary this year.

I am counting on the Ravens defense, although certainly nothing like last years squad, dominating Miami more than the other way around.

At any rate, in what figures to be a low-scoring, field goal type of game, I think that the Ravens are worth a look here getting the points.


Tampa + 3' (4 can be had at SIA-I am not currently funded there, though)


I consider all of the talk about Tampa being 'demoralized' and the like, to be somewhat misguided.

Naturally, they wanted to win that last game, but we all know/knew that it means/meant nothing. I don't think that it has any bearing at all on this game.


Tampa's defense was (rightfully) mailgned as overrated by the pundits(and all of us) through the first 9 or 10 games of this season, but they have been back to form in the last part of this year.

I expect that to continue in this game, over 40 degrees or not.

I ignored several factors that I really don't get into, like: Dungy playing for his job (which he is-Spurrier on the horizon or not), big revenge because of last year...ect... but then again, those things can't hurt.

Again, in what should be a low-scoring, bruising game between 2 equal teams---gimme the 3'


I'll also be looking closely at the moneylines on these two plays--+130 on Balt and +162 on TB...


Good luck this weekend!

 

[bigbucksfan]

thank you

thank you

excellent analysis! no hype, no bs, no promises, just stuff we can use to take a stab at those two games.

 

[yyz]

I must disagree with Baltimore. I feel the defenses will pretty much cancel each other out. The fact remains, that Grbage is a sub-standard quarterback, and though Fiedler is not much better, he is still better!

Unless the Ravens can pull another score outta their ass on defense, I don't see them being in this one. At any rate, this game shows me little edge for either team, other than what I've stated.

 

[Reroy]

If infact this turns into a low-scoring field postion game, i kinda like Mia. Grbac didn't look confident at all mon nite, and that's probably why Billick had Elvis chucking the ball around the last 5 mins of the viks game with a 9 pt lead. Billick knows he needs him to show up against miami and the fact that he was 10-27 with his team rushing for over 210 yds is not a good sign. The punting factor may be worth 3 points right there. Richardson is not a good punter even when a) the snap is good and b) they block for him. I also like the fact the Fiedler can run if the play breaks down, of course he better use good judgement against the Ravens. All said, I will probably pass on this game.


Kosar, you plan on being out in vegas for ncaa tourney again??

 

[Jiminy Cricket]

wrong ones

wrong ones

you picked two dogs but they are the wrong ones. j-e-t-s and niners both win and cover!!

 

[kosar]

YYZ,

Could be, but I see it more as the two quarterbacks 'cancel each other out', and I give the Ravens a moderate edge on defense. As inept as Grbac can be, Fiedler is prone to making horrible decisions when he's under consistent, heavy pressure. He does not match up well against the Ravens defense, and there very well *might* be a defensive TD (or 2). That's not what i'm counting on to cover this game, but it's something to take into consideration.

Reroy,

You're definitely right about how shell-shocked Grbac looked on Monday against a poor defense, but again, I think it's a bit myopic to focus on just that one game (not that *you* are, but it seems people in general have that game seared into their mind).

Richardson is a definite liability, and Miami is tough at home as well.

On the other side, Miami has a history of disappearing in the playoffs and Baltimore is experienced and battle-tested on the road in the playoffs after last years run.

Even in Miami, I rate this game a pick.

Re: NCAA Tourney in Vegas. I was just talking to somebody last night about that. I am about 75% sure that i'll be out there sometime during the tournament. Of course, i'm shooting for the first weekend like last year. How about you? If so, we'll have to hook up for longer than we did last year. I had a great time in the few hours we hung out. Hopefully this year, Fletcher won't take 9 hours to change a tire and we might actually see him for more than 2 minutes. LOL

 

[Reroy]

Matt, i may be swayed towards Bal if I could find a +3.5 somewhere. I plan on being in vegas for opening weekend again. Big Daddy is talking about going out there too. I had a blast out there last year, it was nice to meet you and Eric. If you can make it let me know and I'll make sure to meet you( and whoever else wants to come out ) to watch the games! good luck this weekend and i'll let you know for sure when I'm coming out to LV in march. take care, Mike

 

[ctownguy]

Kosar

I agree with you as I stated in my thread on Monday that has gotten buried since. The public will be all over Miami and Baltimore will bite them all in the butt.

NCAA Tourney

I've been going to the first weekend Thu-Sun for over 5 years. Let me know where you will be and maybe we can hook up. I go with my brother in law and 3-4 other friends and we spend morning till night in the sportsbook betting, drinking, taking breaks when losing and playing BJ then going out at night usually Sat & Sun (shorter days of games), we just go and have a great time. Let's hook up if possible.

 

[Jiminy Cricket]

Ravens

Ravens

:nono:

 

[kosar]

Mike,

Sounds good. We'll coordinate it as the time approaches.

Ctownguy,

Replace 'blackjack' with 'craps' and your itinerary sounds about identical to mine, when I go out there. If I go out, we'll definitely hook-up. Maybe get a mini-MJ get together going.

Anybody want to fade me that we could get at least 20 people? Anyone? Nolan? Bueller?

 

[BAINS]

Vegas is loving this game, they should achieve their goal of getting equal money on both sides.

Everybody who is analyzing this game has called both offenses equal and both defenses perhaps equal. In the NFl no 2 teams are equal.

The difference here is that while it may appear to the novice capper that both teams from a talent standpoint are equal they are not.

Miami is playing relatively good football at this point in the season, and is playing as a team, they have a goal and are going to achieve it.

Baltimore is a team in disarray. Look at the normally cool Billick, he is completely frustrated with the offense this year. The defense has missed countless tackles and assignments. The O line can't pass protect, and run block very well. The kicking game is atrocious. This team is not playing well, and is playing like INDIVIDUALS. They have no leaders on offense, and will not win a game in the playoffs.

If anyone thinks the RAVENS can turn on the ON button, and return to Super Bowl form, oh yah they tried that against PITTSBURGH and look what happened there. Don't outhink yourself, RAVENS are done this year, look for some major changes in the offseason.

 

[ctownguy]

Sounds great, Just let me know if and when you will be there. This is an annual thing for my guys so I will definitely be there.

This could turn into an MJ thing if enough guys showup. Be sure to bring plenty of money.

 

[ironlock]

Anybody want to fade me that we could get at least 20 people? Anyone? Nolan? Bueller?


Bueller?......Bueller?.....LFMAO


Hey kosar-
You know my approach, much like yours.....

Therefore, it shouldn't surprise you that I am a bit nervous about playing the Dolphins with the knowledge that they have four sharp corners this week. However, if you were to analyze Baltimore's performance last week strictly in terms of how they stood against expectations, you would have to agree that they played just 'slightly' below expectations, and in strict terms (covered), above expectations.

Lets face it, they were only favored by 13 over a horrible road team, with absolutely NO quarterback, a very weak running game, and a weak at best defense. Also consider that they 'very much needed' this game to get in the playoffs, all these factors converged to expectations of a 13 point win.....

Maybe Im misreading things, but that is pretty much what was reflected in the MNF game, one team was 10-14 points better than the other.... So when idiots like myself come out saying Baltimore sucks, it is probably more due to my wager on them, rather than their failure to meet expectations. They were as good on MNF, as the betting public expected them to be.

I know I am getting long winded, but Im thinking as I write, so bear with me. The point is that I don't think Miami is quite the square selection as most might imagine they are. For instance, in my office pool 10 of 22 chose the RAvens. Fielder is certainly not a 'hot commodity' (like that?)...., and a case against Miami's offense can always be made.

These factors give me comfort when considering the 'squarness' of the Miami play.

That's my story and I am sticking with it..... Miami-2 1/2

Agree with you on Tampa...loving the hook.

 

[hellah10]

Miami -2.5

 

[kosar]

Hey ironlock,

You need to invest in a second phone line. Tried to get you the last 4 nights and it's always busy. I'll catch you this weekend.

 

[scrubbo]

Sometimes all the emphasis is on the skill postions. Grbac has been bad but the Ravens O line has been horrendous. Miami should be able to get an intense pass rush. I expect the Dolphins dee to control this game.

 

[Super Idiota]

It's true the Dolphins do disappear in the Playoffs, but not until the second round.

They will win on Sunday.

Miami 17 Baltimore 13

 

[kosar]

As Bains brought his 5 day old post back to the top to brag about his Eagles pick, I thought it would only be right to bring this thread back to the top to lament my loss.

I do have to admit that i'm a bit nervous about the Ravens tomorrow as those of us who like them have been identified as 'novice gamblers' by Mr. Bains in this thread.

 

[ctownguy]

Yea, I'm a 30 year novice.

 

[redsfann]

Great reading here, fellas....


I'll take a taste of the under 20 at your little swaray in Vegas, Kosar.......but don't hold me to it later, ok?

Bueller, Nolan, Bueller....LMFAO......