When Seattle met New Orleans earlier this year, they played a much better game than the 34-19 final score indicated. The Seahawks TWICE kicked FGs from New Orleans 2-yard line. Two Marshawn Lynch fumbles undid promising drives. The difference in the game was Seattle got close and settled for FGs while New Orleans scored TDs. The Saints punted on their first drive and then scored TDs on EACH of the next FIVE drives.
In the playoffs, points are supposed to be at a premium while defense tighten their belts a bit. On the road to the Super Bowl last year, the Saints games finished with 59, 59, and 48 points. Seattle has shown the ability to cover NOBODY all year long. Even holding the Rams to just six points last week, St. Louis had guys running free and they just couldn't connect. They had three dropped passes on 3rd down in the second half. Reggie Bush has been much more effective as a receiver than a runner and with injuries to both Ivory and Thomas, that plays right into what the Saints want to do. Seattle has been much better forcing turnovers at home vs on the road (2.1p/g v. 1.4 overall) while Drew Brees has thrown a career-high 22 INTs this year.
My money will never see a playoff line of 10+ points, so I'm going with the OVER here.
OVER 45.5
I don't have a whole lot to say about Jets-Colts, just a feeling that this is a game Rex Ryan needs to win. His team has been constructed in order to overcome the Colts. They proved last year the playoffs can bring out their best football, but fell apart in the second half against Indianapolis. Bill Simmons of ESPN says it better than I ever could so here goes:
This reminds me of the Ravens-Patriots blowout last January: Some picked the Patriots solely because of Brady and Belichick, and unfortunately, reputations don't win playoff games. As we found out. Saying "you can't bet against Manning at night" isn't good enough anymore. His team stinks. They have two ends who can rush the passer, two receivers who can get deep and that's about it. Meanwhile, the Jets spent the offseason building their roster for this game specifically -- if they blow it, they'd be remembered as the biggest collection of frauds and posers in recent New York sports history. And this is a city that has the Mets.
The pick: Jets 34, Colts 20
Indianapolis has become somewhat predictable in their play-calling and teams have caught on. Tracy Porter knew where the ball was going on the game-changing INT in last year's Super Bowl and this also contributed to Peyton's mid-season spike of INTS. They have certainly played better since then, even changing tactics. Peyton running a naked bootleg to ice the game at Oakland and lining up Reggie Wayne on the right side of the field are two recent examples. Gary Brackett returned against Dallas in Week 13 and I think that it is no coincidence that the run defense immediately improved. He is an underrated leader for that defense. Many want to remember the poor games that Sanchez has played this year, but he was great late in the year at Pittsburgh and Chicago. The Colts weakness is the pass defense and if the Jets hope to win Sanchez will have to (and should) exploit that weakness. J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets!!!
New York +3 (-135) bought the hook
In the playoffs, points are supposed to be at a premium while defense tighten their belts a bit. On the road to the Super Bowl last year, the Saints games finished with 59, 59, and 48 points. Seattle has shown the ability to cover NOBODY all year long. Even holding the Rams to just six points last week, St. Louis had guys running free and they just couldn't connect. They had three dropped passes on 3rd down in the second half. Reggie Bush has been much more effective as a receiver than a runner and with injuries to both Ivory and Thomas, that plays right into what the Saints want to do. Seattle has been much better forcing turnovers at home vs on the road (2.1p/g v. 1.4 overall) while Drew Brees has thrown a career-high 22 INTs this year.
My money will never see a playoff line of 10+ points, so I'm going with the OVER here.
OVER 45.5
I don't have a whole lot to say about Jets-Colts, just a feeling that this is a game Rex Ryan needs to win. His team has been constructed in order to overcome the Colts. They proved last year the playoffs can bring out their best football, but fell apart in the second half against Indianapolis. Bill Simmons of ESPN says it better than I ever could so here goes:
This reminds me of the Ravens-Patriots blowout last January: Some picked the Patriots solely because of Brady and Belichick, and unfortunately, reputations don't win playoff games. As we found out. Saying "you can't bet against Manning at night" isn't good enough anymore. His team stinks. They have two ends who can rush the passer, two receivers who can get deep and that's about it. Meanwhile, the Jets spent the offseason building their roster for this game specifically -- if they blow it, they'd be remembered as the biggest collection of frauds and posers in recent New York sports history. And this is a city that has the Mets.
The pick: Jets 34, Colts 20
Indianapolis has become somewhat predictable in their play-calling and teams have caught on. Tracy Porter knew where the ball was going on the game-changing INT in last year's Super Bowl and this also contributed to Peyton's mid-season spike of INTS. They have certainly played better since then, even changing tactics. Peyton running a naked bootleg to ice the game at Oakland and lining up Reggie Wayne on the right side of the field are two recent examples. Gary Brackett returned against Dallas in Week 13 and I think that it is no coincidence that the run defense immediately improved. He is an underrated leader for that defense. Many want to remember the poor games that Sanchez has played this year, but he was great late in the year at Pittsburgh and Chicago. The Colts weakness is the pass defense and if the Jets hope to win Sanchez will have to (and should) exploit that weakness. J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets!!!
New York +3 (-135) bought the hook
