Wildcard Weekend

Smitty

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Alright, let's get this party started.

Seattle @ SF
After a surprising 6-3 start to the season, Seattle went to Germany and lost to TB. That began a 3-5 finish to the season, with wins over the Rams (twice, barely) and the Jets. Geno Smith has looked more like, well, Geno Smith since that trip, throwing 13 TDs and 7 INTs. Up until that point, he threw 17 TDs and only 4 INTs. Kenneth Walker has been huge for the Seahawks, but he has 16 carries for 57 yards against SF. That's 3.56 yards/carry.

SF really hasn't slowed down much (if at all) since Brock Purdy took over. In fact, he has a nearly identical completion percentage as Garoppolo, and a slightly better yards/att. He does take a few more sacks than Garoppolo, which you'd expect from a rookie.

The nice thing for Purdy is that he shouldn't need to do too much tomorrow. Seattle is 25th against the run. And, unlike Purdy's first start against Seattle, he'll have Elijah Mitchell (6.2 yards/carry, fer cryin' out loud) and Deebo Samuel available.

I already have SF -9.5 and under 42 in a bunch of parlays, so I'm not adding any more. But I like these as well:

Seattle TT under (15.5) 4 units. Seattle has scored 13 and 7 against SF this year. No reason to think that will improve.

Geno Smith over (32.5) pass attempts 2 units. Seattle won't be able to run the ball against the 2nd best run defense in the league, and they should be trailing most of the game.

Robbie Gould (-.5) fgs over Jason Myers) 2 units to win 2.1. Myers was really off in the season finale. Almost every fg he made was just inside the right upright, and then he hit the right upright (or missed right, i don't remember) on the first potential game winner.

NFL Regular Season
sides 18-14 -5.9 units
ML 15-17 +19.5
totals 22-24 -5.0
props 2-4 -3.8
 

Smitty

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San Diego (yes, San Diego) @ Jacksonville

I'm just not going to spend a lot of time on this game. San Diego is the much better team. But Brandon Staley. In a league filled with terrible coaching, he stands out. No idea how they let him continue to waste a pretty talented team. If they lose tomorrow, that will probably be it for him. Hell, the Chargers may take a dive in this game just to get rid of him.

That said, I still played SD -2.5 in some parlays. I think they'll be motivated by the embarrassing home loss to the Jags. I'm not adding anything more on the side. I am adding more to my best bet in this game though.

Under (47.5) 4 units. This is mostly gut instinct, plus the fact that most games WC Weekend go under. All the talk about the 2 young guns in this game.... it's practically guaranteed to go under, as long as it doesn't go to OT. Speaking of which, if you haven't seen the new Playoff OT rules... even if the team with first possession scores a TD, the game continues to give the other team a chance to score a TD. This shit is out of control. Despite the fact that years and years of data show that winning the coin flip was no advantage whatsoever, the league insists the old system just wasn't fair.
 

Smitty

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Miami @ Buffalo

Ah, the classic MAC matchup of the RedHawks vs. the Bulls. Wait, what? Oh, not THAT Miami?

Ok, allegedly Dan Marino is coming out of retirement for the Dolphins tomorrow. No word on whether or not he'll be wearing his Isotoner gloves.

Miami covered both games against the Bills this year. And this line is ridiculous, whether it's Skylar Thompson or 60+ year old Dan Marino taking the snaps. 4 weeks ago, Miami ran for 188 yards on 25 carries in this stadium. They're going to need similar production from the ground game in this one. And, obviously, that will be difficult if Buffalo gets out to a big lead.

It's hard to back the Dolphins, as they lost 5 straight before finishing the year with a less-than-impressive win over the Jets. At least all those losses were to playoff teams or teams that were eliminated last week. But I have to take this many points from the Bills, who had dropped 4 straight home games ATS until getting bailed out by two kickoff returns last week.

Miami (+13.5) 2 units
Under (43.5) 2 units
Josh Allen Rushing Yards over (49.5) 2 units
 

Smitty

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NYG @ Minnesota

It took a while, but I think everyone by now realizes Minnesota is... well, not good. I'd love to know when's the last time a team went 13-4 while being outscored for the season. Impressive. I promised myself a couple months ago I was betting against the Vikings in the playoffs. And here come the Gmen. Ugh. Seems like the whole world is on the Giants. That's more than a little scary. You ever make a bet that you knew was probably going to lose? Yeah, that's me in this game. I'm sticking to my guns. I'll go contrarian with the total.

NYG (ML) 2 to win 2.7
Under (48) 4 units
1H Under (23.5) 2 units
D Jones Rushing Yards Over (39.5) 2 units
 

Smitty

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Well.... let's focus on the positive.... 2-0 on props!!

Playoffs after Saturday
Totals 0-2 -8.8
Props 2-0 +4.1

Baltimore @ Cincinnati

Ugh. I do think the Bengals are a little over-hyped now. And they are missing both starters from the right side of the offensive line, which was already suspect to begin with.

If you look at the numbers from last week, Baltimore shockingly outplayed the Bengals. Except for, you know, turning the ball over 4 times vs only 1 for Cincinnati. But Baltimore outgained Cincy by 129 yards (386 - 257). Looking back at the game, I'm surprised Cincinnati only gained 257 yards. Burrow only averaged 5.1 yards/att and they ran for 55 yards on 20 carries. Wow.

Apparently Huntley and Brown will play some qb for Baltimore today. Huntley ain't great, but he's certainly more competent than Brown.

This is brutal, but I think Baltimore is the right play.

Baltimore (+8.5) 2 units
Baltimore (ML) 1 to win 3.4
Baltimore 1H (+6.5, -120) 2 units
Baltimore TT under (15.5) 2 units
Cincinnati TT under (25.5, -125) 4 units

Joe Burrow rushing yards over (10.5) 2 units. With the pressure likely coming from Burrow's right, he'll see it and have time to scramble.
Dobbins rushing yards over (60.5, -120) 2 units. I forgot they rested him last week, along with Mark Andrews.
 

rocky mountain

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Well.... let's focus on the positive.... 2-0 on props!!

Playoffs after Saturday
Totals 0-2 -8.8
Props 2-0 +4.1

Baltimore @ Cincinnati

Ugh. I do think the Bengals are a little over-hyped now. And they are missing both starters from the right side of the offensive line, which was already suspect to begin with.

If you look at the numbers from last week, Baltimore shockingly outplayed the Bengals. Except for, you know, turning the ball over 4 times vs only 1 for Cincinnati. But Baltimore outgained Cincy by 129 yards (386 - 257). Looking back at the game, I'm surprised Cincinnati only gained 257 yards. Burrow only averaged 5.1 yards/att and they ran for 55 yards on 20 carries. Wow.

Apparently Huntley and Brown will play some qb for Baltimore today. Huntley ain't great, but he's certainly more competent than Brown.

This is brutal, but I think Baltimore is the right play.

Baltimore (+8.5) 2 units
Baltimore (ML) 1 to win 3.4
Baltimore 1H (+6.5, -120) 2 units
Baltimore TT under (15.5) 2 units
Cincinnati TT under (25.5, -125) 4 units

Joe Burrow rushing yards over (10.5) 2 units. With the pressure likely coming from Burrow's right, he'll see it and have time to scramble.
Dobbins rushing yards over (60.5, -120) 2 units. I forgot they rested him last week, along with Mark Andrews.

Good luck brother, nice writeup! :0003
 
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ejthree

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GL Smitty, Riding with you on the Flying Fish...:toast:
 

Smitty

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Dallas @ Tampa Bay

This is one that I'm going to be really pissed if I lose. Pretty much like every year, I swore I'd bet against Dallas in their first playoff game. And then last week and this matchup happened. Everyone saw Dallas completely shit themselves against Washington. And TB12 has been regaining the old magic! This feels like such a set-up that I have to bet Dallas. And then I'm going to hate myself every single time Dak drops back. But here's the thing.... the Bucs offensive line.

The starting left tackle, Donovan Smith (aka Mr. Holding) is questionable with a foot injury that caused him to miss 2 of the last 3 games. So even if he's able to go. if he's slowed by a foot injury, he's even more likely to draw a few flags. The starting left guard, Nick Leverett, is out (I'm pretty sure). The starting center, Ryan Jensen, has been on the IR all season. There's a chance he could be activated, but he'll be rusty. And Robert Hainsey, who has started at center all year, is questionable with a hamstring strain.

And here comes Micah Parsons. We may finally see someone break TB12 tomorrow night.

It's going to be painful, no doubt. I'm betting this garbage team to win a playoff game on the road. :facepalm: Just, please dear God, don't call any short out routes for Dak inside your own 20. You know what, don't call any at all. Please. At least when they pick him off, leave yourself a chance to make the tackle.

Dallas (-2.5) 4 units
Dak to throw an INT 3.3 to win 2
Parsons to record over 0.75 sacks 2 to win 2.5
 

Smitty

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GL Smitty, Riding with you on the Flying Fish...:toast:

You mean the Frying Fish? Definitely hate to see the lines up to 14 and 44. Talk about feeling like you lost a bet before the game even starts...

I probably won't even start watching the game until 3:30 or so EST. Thank god for DVR. Something tells me I'll be FF'ing through that one pretty quickly.
 

ejthree

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Come on man, don't give up on those Flying Fish...:mj07:
 

Smitty

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eked out a small profit yesterday. super smart play by huntley at the goal line on, what, 2nd down?

Playoffs after Sunday
Sides 3-0 +6.0
ML 1-1 +1.7
Totals 1-6 -15.8
Props 3-1 +3.9
 

rocky mountain

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eked out a small profit yesterday. super smart play by huntley at the goal line on, what, 2nd down?

Playoffs after Sunday
Sides 3-0 +6.0
ML 1-1 +1.7
Totals 1-6 -15.8
Props 3-1 +3.9

That was brutal, but saved a lot of teaser and parlay players. But that can't happen.
 

Smitty

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First Round
Sides 4-0 +10.0
ML 1-1 +1.7
Totals 1-6 -15.8
Props 4-2 +3.1

Damn near back to even. Can't believe Dak didn't throw a pick. Well, he's probably saving them for SF.

Early thoughts on next week.... Cincinnati (but, man, that offensive line), Jax, Gmen, and SF.
 

ejthree

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Like the 49er's basically because of coaching staff but Quinn imo a top Defense guy. Hoping your confidence in Dak is spot on. :0074 Believe Giants may surprise here, think they are going to grind, grind and grind here.

GL Smitty.
 

Smitty

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Yeah, Dak is laughably bad. I couldn't tell you the last time he threw an out route on time. You just gotta take away his first read and you're in pretty good shape. Hell, I think Purdy does a better job going through his progressions than Dak does.

The bigger the game is, the harder it is to trust Kyle Shanahan not to blow a lead. He put too much on Purdy against Seattle, and Purdy was awful to start out. Even later, when he started completing passes, it felt like every one was to a wide-open receiver. I mean, he got it there, but most of the throws weren't... Purdy. (Thank you, I'll be here all week.)

Normally, the best way to deal with a talent like Micah Parsons is to run right at him. I haven't watched him enough to know if that applies, but the Niners sure could do that. Hell, he didn't have to worry about the run at all against Tampa.

The other NFC game is gmen or nothing for me. They desperately need DJ to continue to not turn the ball over. And hopefully their new star, Hodgins, is healthy. But I feel like Philly is very overrated and I have to take a TD in that game.

I agree with the "grind". I think it's going to be a low-scoring game. Which scares me a little, because NY's defense has been pretty bad most of the year. Just need them to step up another week.
 
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