Alright, let's get this party started.
Seattle @ SF
After a surprising 6-3 start to the season, Seattle went to Germany and lost to TB. That began a 3-5 finish to the season, with wins over the Rams (twice, barely) and the Jets. Geno Smith has looked more like, well, Geno Smith since that trip, throwing 13 TDs and 7 INTs. Up until that point, he threw 17 TDs and only 4 INTs. Kenneth Walker has been huge for the Seahawks, but he has 16 carries for 57 yards against SF. That's 3.56 yards/carry.
SF really hasn't slowed down much (if at all) since Brock Purdy took over. In fact, he has a nearly identical completion percentage as Garoppolo, and a slightly better yards/att. He does take a few more sacks than Garoppolo, which you'd expect from a rookie.
The nice thing for Purdy is that he shouldn't need to do too much tomorrow. Seattle is 25th against the run. And, unlike Purdy's first start against Seattle, he'll have Elijah Mitchell (6.2 yards/carry, fer cryin' out loud) and Deebo Samuel available.
I already have SF -9.5 and under 42 in a bunch of parlays, so I'm not adding any more. But I like these as well:
Seattle TT under (15.5) 4 units. Seattle has scored 13 and 7 against SF this year. No reason to think that will improve.
Geno Smith over (32.5) pass attempts 2 units. Seattle won't be able to run the ball against the 2nd best run defense in the league, and they should be trailing most of the game.
Robbie Gould (-.5) fgs over Jason Myers) 2 units to win 2.1. Myers was really off in the season finale. Almost every fg he made was just inside the right upright, and then he hit the right upright (or missed right, i don't remember) on the first potential game winner.
NFL Regular Season
sides 18-14 -5.9 units
ML 15-17 +19.5
totals 22-24 -5.0
props 2-4 -3.8
Seattle @ SF
After a surprising 6-3 start to the season, Seattle went to Germany and lost to TB. That began a 3-5 finish to the season, with wins over the Rams (twice, barely) and the Jets. Geno Smith has looked more like, well, Geno Smith since that trip, throwing 13 TDs and 7 INTs. Up until that point, he threw 17 TDs and only 4 INTs. Kenneth Walker has been huge for the Seahawks, but he has 16 carries for 57 yards against SF. That's 3.56 yards/carry.
SF really hasn't slowed down much (if at all) since Brock Purdy took over. In fact, he has a nearly identical completion percentage as Garoppolo, and a slightly better yards/att. He does take a few more sacks than Garoppolo, which you'd expect from a rookie.
The nice thing for Purdy is that he shouldn't need to do too much tomorrow. Seattle is 25th against the run. And, unlike Purdy's first start against Seattle, he'll have Elijah Mitchell (6.2 yards/carry, fer cryin' out loud) and Deebo Samuel available.
I already have SF -9.5 and under 42 in a bunch of parlays, so I'm not adding any more. But I like these as well:
Seattle TT under (15.5) 4 units. Seattle has scored 13 and 7 against SF this year. No reason to think that will improve.
Geno Smith over (32.5) pass attempts 2 units. Seattle won't be able to run the ball against the 2nd best run defense in the league, and they should be trailing most of the game.
Robbie Gould (-.5) fgs over Jason Myers) 2 units to win 2.1. Myers was really off in the season finale. Almost every fg he made was just inside the right upright, and then he hit the right upright (or missed right, i don't remember) on the first potential game winner.
NFL Regular Season
sides 18-14 -5.9 units
ML 15-17 +19.5
totals 22-24 -5.0
props 2-4 -3.8