Will history repeat - stat update

[fredd]

Going into the last 96 games starting Tuesday
night- we find some interesting stats.
On a previous update with 217 games to go - I mentioned that Unders showed a strong 111 to 78 overs down the stretch.
This number could be more meaningful during the last 96 games where we find the unders at 64 and the overs at 32. It is very difficult to believe that unders will win at a 66% rate or even a 2-1 ratio.
Ties- on that same update ties were running below the normal 12% however -
in the last 50 games there have been 10 ties
for a tie ratio of 20%.
In order for the year to equal the usual 12% - we need 15 ties in the remaining 96 games or a ratio of slightly over 15%. Last year there were only 7 ties in the final 96 games.
The bottom line is---
Favorites and Dogs could cover at a 50- 50 ratio.An opportunity exists to find some outstanding dogs especially if ties find their mark. Unders should exceed overs.
Let's see if past history in the NHL will hold true again.
I will update these stats at season end for those interested parties.
best of fortune

 

[katts]

Hey fredd,

Sorry for being the bad guy here, but I don't think that you should really bother with this stat.. I've studied the "draw%" for years and everytime I "think" that I figured out something interesting, numbers prove me wrong in the next days.

What you need to know about "stuff" that happen 10-15% of the time, like ties in the NHL:

It doesn't really worth the time to study the tendencies if you don't have at least 300 scenarios to look at.

For instance: if you have 50 games to study and you "know" that a draw happens about 12.5% of the time. What it means is:

Probability to get...
("trying" to draw a graph at the right btw)

0 tie:__ 0.1% .
1 tie:__ 0.9% -
2 ties:_ 3.2% ---
3 ties:_ 7.2% -------
4 ties: 12.1% ------------
5 ties: 15.9% ----------------
6 ties: 17.0% -----------------
7 ties: 15.3% ---------------
8 ties: 11.7% ------------
9 ties:_ 7.8% --------
10 ties: 4.6% -----
11 ties: 2.4% --
12 ties: 1.1% -
13 ties: 0.5% -
14 ties: 0.2% .
15+ ties 0.1% .

Now I'm gonna take games from this year by groups of 50, from the 2000-2001 opening game between Dallas and Colorado, to yesterday's Sj@LA, and write down the # of ties in each of the sequences, in order :

9 - 6 - 9 - 8 - 4 - 4 - 5 - 7 - 8 - 7 - 8 - 6 - 4 - 3 - 4 - 9 - 4 - 2 - 5 - 9 - 9 - 9*

*This last sequence was rounded. Based on a 35 games sequence (6 ties) rounded to 9 to keep the proportions with 50.

I think that the numbers speak by themselves.. To me it's like trying to explain why you threw a "4" in your last 2-dices throw and not a "7". You can't really draw a picture of this until you have a huge # of results to look at... I'd like to mention "IMHO", but here, "it's a fact"..

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

un"f**kin"believable KATTS...you've astounded me again...

can you do my taxes...???