Wimbledon - second round

[Jimboski]

Tried really hard, but just can't come up with a dog with confidence for Thurs/Fri.

Kerber -325

NaLI - 155: she is looking awfully good on any type of hard court since dumping her hubby as coach. Only see the generous odds as a possible problem. Maybe something is up?

Paire -360: after seeing him play, I'm a believer. Asfaras as Kubot goes - his last opponent ain't much at all and gave him a lot of trouble in their first rounder. If that opponent wasn't a "dead DUCK" in that last set he may have even beaten him.

Dodig -210: think this one is the bestest listed here.

Would have added Raonic -200 but he is one clumsy Can...er, OOPS.. let's say his footwork/speed is just terrible. On the plus side - he can really put some zip on the ball and with pretty good accuracy too. He also has a fine serve. But the way they're all taking flops out there... er, NO WAY, Jose.

Good Luck

 

[Jimboski]

Adding one

Adding one

No Bump ups? .. . C'mon, guys.

NO, I didn't come to bump this thing (Sheesh) but I do want to add a play for today, Fri...

Robredo/Murrey OVER 29 (at Dimes): I've been having a lot of luck with Tommy since the French Open started and I'm going to "vote" for him NOT TO WIN today, but how bout to make Murrey earn a win? I've backed Murrey to go OVER in his matches pretty often for quite some time cause I honestly believe that he used to "toy around" with his opponents early on in his matches and then get serious in the 2nd half of his matches. He did let up on doing that since Lendl hooked up with him, but I think that is his nature to do that and still think he's doing it a bit. Asfaras Robredo goes - how bout that old man? I know clay is his surface, but his 2013 grass debut looked pretty dang good to me. Hell, the no. 29, looks even better. Just one 7-6 set is almost halfway home


From he Observation Tower Alert :director: (<-- The BOYS are gonna luv me for this part LOL)
What a predicament, the only contenders on the women's side are gone.. SHEEET! Maybe I'm off base with this... BUT, after watching Serena yesterday, I'm just going bonkers trying to find somebody whose gonna beat her. Maybe somebody else saw what I did - she's REALLY worried about landing on her ass (AGAIN, she's pretty good at doing that ya know) and her game is gonna get affected by worrying so much about that. She's taking HUGE strides and lunging at the ball on her last step instead of taking one more step to hit it correctly. That is, SHE'S TRYING TO TAKE AS FEW STEPS AS POSSIBLE ON THOSE CURSED WIMBLEDON COURTS. That's what I saw.

She still may be able to steam roll the shrimps that are still alive, but I'm gonna do more hunting for a possible shocker. Stosur can drill the ball away from her, but she is a tanker supreme. Maybe Kerber? Radwanska (man, she turned into a freakin scarecrow). I dunno?

We're getting down to the nitty gritty part of the torney now. Good Luck

 

[TennisTapir]

No Bump ups? .. . C'mon, guys.

NO, I didn't come to bump this thing (Sheesh) but I do want to add a play for today, Fri...

Robredo/Murrey OVER 29 (at Dimes): I've been having a lot of luck with Tommy since the French Open started and I'm going to "vote" for him NOT TO WIN today, but how bout to make Murrey earn a win? I've backed Murrey to go OVER in his matches pretty often for quite some time cause I honestly believe that he used to "toy around" with his opponents early on in his matches and then get serious in the 2nd half of his matches. He did let up on doing that since Lendl hooked up with him, but I think that is his nature to do that and still think he's doing it a bit. Asfaras Robredo goes - how bout that old man? I know clay is his surface, but his 2013 grass debut looked pretty dang good to me. Hell, the no. 29, looks even better. Just one 7-6 set is almost halfway home


From he Observation Tower Alert :director: (<-- The BOYS are gonna luv me for this part LOL)
What a predicament, the only contenders on the women's side are gone.. SHEEET! Maybe I'm off base with this... BUT, after watching Serena yesterday, I'm just going bonkers trying to find somebody whose gonna beat her. Maybe somebody else saw what I did - she's REALLY worried about landing on her ass (AGAIN, she's pretty good at doing that ya know) and her game is gonna get affected by worrying so much about that. She's taking HUGE strides and lunging at the ball on her last step instead of taking one more step to hit it correctly. That is, SHE'S TRYING TO TAKE AS FEW STEPS AS POSSIBLE ON THOSE CURSED WIMBLEDON COURTS. That's what I saw.

She still may be able to steam roll the shrimps that are still alive, but I'm gonna do more hunting for a possible shocker. Stosur can drill the ball away from her, but she is a tanker supreme. Maybe Kerber? Radwanska (man, she turned into a freakin scarecrow). I dunno?

We're getting down to the nitty gritty part of the torney now. Good Luck

Maybe Lisicki. I liked Kuznetsova for a 1-unit future but she pulled out. Lisicki at her very top might able to manage a narrow loss. Kvitova at her top, but she hasn't been anywhere near consistent enough in recent months. Madison Keys is the only other one who has power and can move.

 

[TennisTapir]

Better chance Serena withdraws injured than loses.

 

[Jimboski]

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Thanks for the help with figuring out the women's final, TT.

Sometimes looking for reason NOT to back a player is just as good or better than recognizing their strengths. Keys, comes to mind - I totally agree with ya about Keys, but facing somebody like Serena on the biggest (IMO) stage in tennis may be asking too much of that young gun.

Lisicki ? I liked her a LOT in previous years, unloaded a bit on her on one of her matches last year and she LOST the dang thang as a favorite. I rarely bet heavy and maybe the sour taste she left me with that loss just turned me off from "ever' backing her again? :shrug:

Man, do those oddsters know how to figure OVER/UNDERS or what? I made 3 parlays on Thurs., one had Serena UNDER 16 1/2 (w. Robredo/Murrey OVER 29)-> Serena wins in 17. UGH!

But Lady Luck paid me a very nice visit with that Robredo/Murrey match that went 30 games. WHEW. And that parlay is gonna pay off with a Na LI win. Hell, I'M gonna get paid off even if she doesn't win (see "BELOW").

>
Pending 2 Team Parlay
Win 6/28/13 11:00am ATP Tennis 193 T.Robredo Games Won/A.Murray Games Won Over 29 -120*
Pending 6/29/13 6:30am WTA Tennis 444 Na Li -380* vs Klara Zakopalova
>

and this mutha jumpa :0053:
>
Pending 4 Team Parlay
Win 6/28/13 11:00am ATP Tennis 193 T.Robredo Games Won/A.Murray Games Won Over 29 -120*
Win 6/28/13 6:30am WTA Tennis 397 Kaia Kanepi +285* vs Angelique Kerber
Win 6/28/13 8:00am WTA Tennis 479 Carla Suarez Navarro -125* vs Eugenie Bouchard
Pending 6/29/13 6:30am WTA Tennis 444 Na Li -380* vs Klara Zakopalova
>

Yeah, I know that doesn't make me look so good, not posting them, but I only post plays that I am really confident about just in case somebody plays along and I wasn't confident about those parlays (well, maybe the first one) at all.... .. . only 5 stinkin dollars bet on that 4 teamer anyway. :00x8

Bottom line is that I won't be playing anything FOR REAL for Sat. HATE to give back profits (right away, that is ).

BELOW
One big exception though - betta believe I'l be on 443 Klara Zakopalova +325* to ensure a tidy profit. That DOESN'T mean I'm picking Zak.

Guess I better post some leans for Sat. for posting (ONLY) sake....

Tomic + 190: HATE to see that punk win this match, but the sweetest backhand in tennis doesn't have the heart to go with it. I WILL be rooting for the Frenchman though, but not with greenbacks. :nono:

Dodig -118: Can ya dig it?

Paire -300: Maybe as a "parlay stuffer" only.

Gulbis/Verdasco OVER 41: Sure has the looks of an OVER but these O/Us are tough as all hell to beat.

Stosur/Lisicki: not even a lean - but the most interesting match on the schedule today for me.

Madison Keys +325: TT likes her and I can't figure out how the scarecrow has enough energy to even breath. She's a mess.

Na Li -400: Already used her as a PRIMARY parlay key.

Sheesh, just realized that I wound up writing a dang book .Hope somebody enjoys it.

Good Luck everybody and enjoy the matches.

 

[kickserv]

When I grow up I want to be like Jimboski.

 

[Jimboski]

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Now you're talking, Kicker :0074
Keep practicing your tennis picks for starters.

My picks...
Looks like the "leans" I posted went so/so. Best one was Tomic fosho. I'm almost beginning to actually like that dude. I'm planning on sticking with him a bit longer.

Tennis Tapir, you're right on with Lisicki; she sho looked pretty good Sat. Fading Stosur can be a good thing and (maybe ?) you picked the right time to do it. Way to go if you did. I almost went for it today but didn't. SHE IS a fader supreme. I keep a list of them --> Gasquet, Stosur, Querrey (best one of them ALL).
Berdych was a good one on my list but I took him off after he started beating me a couple of times last year. OF COURSE, you don't fade these players every time they step on the court, but finding a potentially good spot to do it is usually well worth it.

Surprises (for me, that is).. I guess that would be Verdasco making quick work of Gulbis. The latter is one of those players that I never could get a good handle on. I don't ever recall backing or fading him with a straight bet.

Other surprise, for me again, was A. Radwanska... forget that "scarecrow" bit cause she's alive and breathing just fine. How bout "The Feisty Fruit Fly"? Not thinking she can handle Serena because I still think she can be easily steam rolled by big Williams, but you have to admire what she can do on them courts.

I gave up trying to beat the Steam Roller
Sheet, where is Henin Hardene when ya need her? If she was 90% of her old self - I'd take her in this year's final in a heartbeat. In fact, SHE'S the one who intimidated Williams.

Good Luck, EVERYbody
I'll "resume play" on Monday.