Excerpts from my men's preview
This year's draw with the new seeding system looks decidedly dull with the LTA kowtowing to the pointless complaints of the claycourters and naming 32 seeds. Wimbledon doesn't need players that make petty threats against them - very few of them are capable of winning a match on grass anyway. Why should they use a discretionary seeding policy instead of following the rankings? Because 11 months of the year, the circuit is played on clay or hardcourt, surfaces nothing like grass. Why have the top 16 ranked players seeded when ten of them will be claycourters that won't get past the second round??
THE SEEDS
1. Pete Sampras
Obviously the man to beat. His record here since 1993 is 53-1, the only loss being to Richard Krajicek in 1996, when Sampras' serve was not broken all day. The only other player that has looked like beating him in that period is Mark Philippoussis, and like Krajicek, he's out injured as well. Ignore the rubbish that he's too old and slow - he's not played well on clay for years, and regards Wimbledon as THE tournament.
His first three rounds should be a cakewalk, the fourth round foe looks to be Bjorkman or Federer, with Henman or Gambill in the quarters. Anyone of a number of players could meet him in the semi, only Rusedski looks a possible threat. I calculate the all-up at about 5/2 (3.50), take any higher than that if available. There was some 11/4 (3.75) around last week, but I'd be very surprised if that's still on offer.
2. Andre Agassi
The shiny-scalped one was victorious in 1992, runner-up in 1999 and has made the semis on two other occasions. He has a relatively easy draw, Kiefer in the third round might test him (Ferreira won't - the scorecard is 9-0!), and then if results go to the script, he will face Hewitt in the quarters. If successful there, it will most likely be Pat Rafter, his conqueror last year, in front of him.
I've never rated Agassi highly on grass, but he has continually got the results. However I was concerned by his lack of options at the French when blasted off the court by Grosjean. There was no next gear to move into, and he simply looked helpless. Do not be concerned about him missing the lead-up events, Brad Gilbert and Steffi Graf will have given him plenty of practice on the surface. No value though at under 5/1. (11/2 at Olympic if you want it)
3. Patrick Rafter
The runner-up from 2000 has a real chance of seeing action again on the final Sunday with his draw. It's only a natural progression after three years of fourth round appearances (96-98), then semi-finalist in 99, so perhaps it's his turn to lift the silverware this year. His draw looks straightforward in the early rounds, before meeting either Voltchkov (semi-finalist 2000), Arthurs (0-2 record against) or Santoro (defeated him in Halle last week) in the fourth round, Kafelnikov or Enqvist in the quarters, then Hewitt or Agassi in the semis. The one problem that he may face is his trouble beating Aussie mates - he has losing records against Arthurs, Hewitt and even Scott Draper, but has no such problems beating a player like Philippoussis who has caused him some angst over the years.
He is capable of going all the way, but he may just need a lucky break or two in the draw around him. There's plenty of 12/1 around for Pat, but I think the best idea would be to wait until the end of the first week before backing him.
