Winnepeg Line Move ?

[Nolan Dalla]

I'm not as familiar with the CFL as the NFL, so I hope some of you experts can help me out.

I noted a big line move at 2:40 EST today on the Winnepeg game, which jumped from -5.5 to -6.5 In the NFL this would be a huge move, because if the crossing of the 6.

First question is -- why did the line move (other than the obvious reason -- that someone pounded Winnepeg with money).

Second question is -- how significant is a line move across a key number in the CFL?

Finally, does laying -6.5 making you MORE or LESS likely to play the favorite? Since this team is getting more action, might that mean linemakers blew the early line and the CORRECTION has just occured?

Any thoughts welcomed.

PS -- I'd like to use this on the daily report, with permission from anyone who responds. What interests me is line move significance in the CFL. I'd like to hear more thoughts on this. Thanks.

 

[Hack]

Nolan.
Answering your question"why did the line move".
I believe the latter of your statements is correct,that the house blew the early line and some sharps pounced thus correcting the original line.
The oddsmakers originally gave Hamilton too much respect.
In their first game Hamilton struggled to beat a B.C. team that was playing on only three days rest.
Winnipeg right now is the class of the CFL and even at 6.5 I believe they are still undervalued.
I got down on this at 5.5.I fully expect this line to get to 7 allowing me to middle half my original wager.

By the way Nolan.
In my infancy days of learning holdem and omaha,I really enjoyed your columns in Card Player.

 

[Korn]

Nolan...

I agree with Hack that the line moved because someone hit it hard... I did not notice anything regarding any injury's or anything like that... Winnipeg at -5.5 is great value... You will probably see a few lines like this each week that will make a drastic move.... Especially early on... A few reasons for this.... Weaker lines early on as in most sports... Doesn't take as much $$ to move a CFL line as an NFL line.... Not as high of a volume in betting the CFL....

Like I mentioned in the other thread.. with lines like Montreal -7 against Toronto???? What were they thinking... Montreal is one of the top teams and Toronto is a basement dweller with good D.... but NO QB.... and that is the key... no offence = no points and in the CFL which is a HIGH scoring league, that will hurt.... The average total on a CFL game is around 50..... Therefore if you can't score you are not gonna win in this game...
The line should have been around -14 or -15....


Your second question Nolan, about the line moving accross key #'s.... First of all I will point out that there is no "TRUE" key #'s in the CFL as any team can score any amount of points imaginable due to the fact that they can score single points... This is done by scoring a "ROUGE" by having the ball travel thru or into the endzone off a kick and not having it returned out. This can happen off of a missed FG, a Punt, or even a kickoff..... Therefore all it takes is one missed kick and all the key #'s would be thrown off.... Sure gettiing +7.5 is better than +7.... I'm not saying there are no key #'s... but it is not as important as it is in the NFL...

And your final thought about the line movement affecting the play... Overall I'd have to judge this on a game to game basis.... would depend on the teams playing, and the position of the line etc etc.... no overall feeling here.... in your Winnipeg example I liked Winnipeg -5.5 and grabbed that... if my only option was -6.5 now I would still take it.... Because I feel its the right side...

With the lines moving a pt here or there, i don't feel makes that much of a difference.... Mainly due to the amount of scoring in these games....


Good questions Nolan....

GL

 

[PerpetualCzech]

The right side in the Toronto game was Toronto +7. Toronto was up 5-3 late in the 2nd quarter and on Montreal's 3 yard line when they fumbled. Also Montreal scored a TD with 3 minutes to go on a fumble return.

Montreal certainly a better team than Montreal but to suggest that line should have been 14 or 15 is silly.

 

[1837]

Perpetual, Have you seens the game???? Honestly, i totally disagree with you. Montreal should have won by 20 pts and more EASILY but they commited stupid mistakes in the first half. Toronto fumble the ball twice so did Montreal! 23 first down montreal for... 14 by Toronto! Montreal had the ball with 1 :30 sec left in the end and could have made another td or a field goal but killed the clock instead.

At the half, Montreal should have been up by 10 pts and more easily and the score didn't reflect the dominance by the Al's that is why i pound Montreal hard on the second half for my biggest play of the year thus far and it came easily in. Don't tell me Toronto +7 was the play, they have been outplayed!!! :nono:

 

[PerpetualCzech]

I take it back, I was going by the recap and linescore but obviously missed out on some details in Montreal's favour. Sounds like the smart bet was indeed Montreal.

I was actually more motivated with the fact that you can't really claim a line was wrong after the game is over but I see now that Korn had posted a heavy play on Montreal in another thread. Apologies.