Florida-4 @ S.Carolina
Play: S.Carolina +4.5 (Bodog, or +4 elsewhere)
First of all, S.Carolina is the #1 redzone efficiency edge play this week.
These plays have been money in both NFL and NCAAF in the past, especially
this year. However, just as any other play, a strong redzone play can lose
on any given day. So, don't bet your house on it. It is a single unit play,
just like any other single unit play. S.Carolina has finally started playing
well for their new coach (we all know his name and who he coached before, so
no need to talk about that). They won four straight games and allowed 16 pts
or less three times in the process. One can argue that Florida was
struggling against Vanderbilt last week, because of the look-ahead sindrom,
but their recent woes don't look like a look-ahead factor to me. You can
struggle in one game, looking ahead to your next opponent, but not for a
month. Other than in their game vs MSST, the Gators were not convincing at
all since the second half of their road game vs Kentucky. They were lost in
the second half vs Kentucky, got killed at 'Bama, barely edged Shockly-less
Georgia, and finally needed OT to beat Vandy. Perfect spot for hungry and
confident Gamecocks to finally beat Florida. This team should be able to
keep it close. Systems supporting S.Carolina:
Play on home dogs off 2W, allowing 21 or less in both: 21-9 ATS L10Y.
Play against @Favs of H fav win in OT: 21-9 ATS L15Y.
Same system is 15-0 ATS if favored by 3 or more in L20Y.
Oregon -4.5 @ Washington State
Play: Washington State +4.5
Despite being 3-6 on the season, Washington State is stil better in the
redzone than the 8-1 Oregon. Oregon is actually one of the worst redzone
teams in the PAC10. And the things only got worst for Oregon when they lost
their starting QB Clemens due to an ankle injury. His replacements Dixon and
Leaf have combined for 2 TD and 4 INT so far this season, compared to
Clemens' 17 TD and 4 INT. And if Oregon tries to win this game on the
ground, it could get even uglier. Washington State has been a much better
team on the ground, both offensively and defensively this season, than
Oregon. They average 5.4 ypr on offense vs Oregon's 3.8. On defense, they
average 3.8ypr (2.9 at home) vs Oregon's 4.1.Four of their last 5 losses
have been by 4 pts or less and the only team that was able to beat them by
more than 4 was the #1 USC. These guys are not quitters and they for sure
will not quit at home, as they try to revenge a 3pts home loss to the Ducks.
Washington State keeps it close and maybe wins SU. Systems supporting
Washington State:
Play on 7-dogs reveng. upset loss in which they were favored by 7 or less
points: 32-9 ATS L16Y.
Play against @Favs of H fav win in OT: 21-9 ATS L15Y.
Same system is 15-0 ATS if favored by 3 or more in L20Y.
BIG PLAYS:
FRESNO STATE -7 (WIN)
Iowa +2.5 @ Wisconsin
Big play: Wisconsin -2.5
As much as Wisconsin is struggling lately, as evidenced by the fact that
they were outgained in last 5 and outrushed in last 7 games, I stil have to
make this play based mostly on two important stats: Number one, Wisconsin is
a top 5 redzone efficiency edge play in college football this week, and
number 2,Wisconsin is a good home team and is hosting Iowa which is a bad
road team this year, period. I know Iowa owned Wisconsin in last few years,
but I don't think they will be ready to bounce back after that horrible loss
at Northwestern last week, in which they had a HUGE lead early on, but stil
lost that game. As for Wisconsin's clash with PSU last week, I had an
impression that even Wisconsin players didn't believe in a win in that game.
I think they knew well before the kickoff that they had no chance against
PSU. However, this week, they have a triple revenge on their minds, and they
are playing at home as well. Small play on Wisconsin -2.5. Here are two
solid systems supporting Wisky this week:
Play on 3-HF in at least a double revenge after a 21+L: 22-6 ATS L9Y.
Play against @ teams not off bye in conf.gms off @FL: 16-6 ATS L11Y.
Ball State +6 @ E.Michigan
Small Play/Lean: Ball State +6
All of a sudden, Ball State is not looking all that bad. Once they got to
their conference part of the schedule, they started winning and surprising
quite a few people. Since that crushing 60 pts loss to Auburn, they went 3-3
SU and 5-1 ATS, including two straight dog wins in last two games. Now they
are looking to revenge two straight losses against EMU, and EMU, by the way,
is on a 4 game losing streak. Perfect timing for Ball State to revenge two
taugh losses against Eastern Michigan. Ball State is one of the best redzone
teams in the MAC (believe it or not) and EMU is one of the worst. I won't be
shocked if Ball State pulls their third uspet in a row here.Here is one very
solid system supporting Ball State in the dog role:
Play on 7-dogs revenging upset loss of 7pts or less: 31-9 ATS L7Y
Arizona State +3.5 @ UCLA
Small Play/Lean: Arizona State +3.5
UCLA is not undefeated any more. And teams that suffer their first loss this
late in the season, usually struggle to get back on track in their next
game. And while UCLA has to find a way to get back on track now, Arizona
State found that way in two straight wins following their disappointing
losses to USC etc. UCLA will get their share of points in this one, but so
will ASU. The difference here might be the redzone efficiency and the
defense. ASU seems to be more capable of making a key stop on defense than
UCLA. ASU is also a top 5 redzone efficiency edge play this week. Strong
system supporting ASU:
Play on @dogs off @dog win, opp. of @fav loss: 38-14 ATS L15Y.
Same system if favored by 7-: 33-9 ATS and 28-14 SU.
Same system if favored by 4-: 26-4 ATS, 22-8 SU, 12-0 ATS Last 12.
Northwestern +19 @ Ohio State
Small Play/Lean: Northwestern +19
This line keeps going up, and I understand why. Northwestern has no defense
and OHST defense is one of the best in NCAA this year. Maybe even one of the
best in recent years. However, I stil believe in NW, and their offense,
enough to take all those points, against a team (OHST) that is not known as
a offensive powerhouse. I know OHST offense looked good recently, but the
scoring is not their trade mark and they can start struggling again on any
given Saturday. Northwestern is stil not getting any respect. In games
played vs common opponents, NW has a better redzone efficiency than OHST.
They are full of confidence, especially after that come-from-behind win over
Iowa last week. If their defense was any better, they would not be getting
this many points. System supporting Northwestern:
Play against road favs revenging a road upset loss in which they were
favored by 7 or more, and opponent is off a dog win: 18-3 ATS L20Y.
Same system is 13-0 ATS if opp won by 3- in its previous game.
S.Florida -8 @ Syracuse
Small Play/Lean: Syracuse +8 (FREE LEAN)
Last home game of the season for Syracuse, last winnable game of the season
as well, and obviously last chance to end that ugly losing streak. And if
they were not able to fix some of the problems during their bye week, they
never will. Due to one posponed game on their schedule, S.Florida is playing
their 4th straight road game and their first game on turf this season. Last
week's win at Rutgers was a good one, but Rutgers was playing that game with
two seriously banged up quarterbacks. And despite that, Rutgers almost
erased a 21 pts early deficit, as they scored 30+ on SFL and won three
quarters of that game. SFL is just not a kind of a team that should be
laying this many points on the road, against a team that has a 23-6 ATS home
dog record in last 20+ years and a 11-3 SU record in last home games in last
14 seasons. Two solid systems supporting Syracuse:
Play against teams play 4th straight @game, opp off HL: 21-9 ATS L14Y
Play against @ teams off 14+W as @dog, not off bye: 21-7 ATS L12Y.
Just passing along info, hope to help everyone out. This system works very well.
Play: S.Carolina +4.5 (Bodog, or +4 elsewhere)
First of all, S.Carolina is the #1 redzone efficiency edge play this week.
These plays have been money in both NFL and NCAAF in the past, especially
this year. However, just as any other play, a strong redzone play can lose
on any given day. So, don't bet your house on it. It is a single unit play,
just like any other single unit play. S.Carolina has finally started playing
well for their new coach (we all know his name and who he coached before, so
no need to talk about that). They won four straight games and allowed 16 pts
or less three times in the process. One can argue that Florida was
struggling against Vanderbilt last week, because of the look-ahead sindrom,
but their recent woes don't look like a look-ahead factor to me. You can
struggle in one game, looking ahead to your next opponent, but not for a
month. Other than in their game vs MSST, the Gators were not convincing at
all since the second half of their road game vs Kentucky. They were lost in
the second half vs Kentucky, got killed at 'Bama, barely edged Shockly-less
Georgia, and finally needed OT to beat Vandy. Perfect spot for hungry and
confident Gamecocks to finally beat Florida. This team should be able to
keep it close. Systems supporting S.Carolina:
Play on home dogs off 2W, allowing 21 or less in both: 21-9 ATS L10Y.
Play against @Favs of H fav win in OT: 21-9 ATS L15Y.
Same system is 15-0 ATS if favored by 3 or more in L20Y.
Oregon -4.5 @ Washington State
Play: Washington State +4.5
Despite being 3-6 on the season, Washington State is stil better in the
redzone than the 8-1 Oregon. Oregon is actually one of the worst redzone
teams in the PAC10. And the things only got worst for Oregon when they lost
their starting QB Clemens due to an ankle injury. His replacements Dixon and
Leaf have combined for 2 TD and 4 INT so far this season, compared to
Clemens' 17 TD and 4 INT. And if Oregon tries to win this game on the
ground, it could get even uglier. Washington State has been a much better
team on the ground, both offensively and defensively this season, than
Oregon. They average 5.4 ypr on offense vs Oregon's 3.8. On defense, they
average 3.8ypr (2.9 at home) vs Oregon's 4.1.Four of their last 5 losses
have been by 4 pts or less and the only team that was able to beat them by
more than 4 was the #1 USC. These guys are not quitters and they for sure
will not quit at home, as they try to revenge a 3pts home loss to the Ducks.
Washington State keeps it close and maybe wins SU. Systems supporting
Washington State:
Play on 7-dogs reveng. upset loss in which they were favored by 7 or less
points: 32-9 ATS L16Y.
Play against @Favs of H fav win in OT: 21-9 ATS L15Y.
Same system is 15-0 ATS if favored by 3 or more in L20Y.
BIG PLAYS:
FRESNO STATE -7 (WIN)
Iowa +2.5 @ Wisconsin
Big play: Wisconsin -2.5
As much as Wisconsin is struggling lately, as evidenced by the fact that
they were outgained in last 5 and outrushed in last 7 games, I stil have to
make this play based mostly on two important stats: Number one, Wisconsin is
a top 5 redzone efficiency edge play in college football this week, and
number 2,Wisconsin is a good home team and is hosting Iowa which is a bad
road team this year, period. I know Iowa owned Wisconsin in last few years,
but I don't think they will be ready to bounce back after that horrible loss
at Northwestern last week, in which they had a HUGE lead early on, but stil
lost that game. As for Wisconsin's clash with PSU last week, I had an
impression that even Wisconsin players didn't believe in a win in that game.
I think they knew well before the kickoff that they had no chance against
PSU. However, this week, they have a triple revenge on their minds, and they
are playing at home as well. Small play on Wisconsin -2.5. Here are two
solid systems supporting Wisky this week:
Play on 3-HF in at least a double revenge after a 21+L: 22-6 ATS L9Y.
Play against @ teams not off bye in conf.gms off @FL: 16-6 ATS L11Y.
Ball State +6 @ E.Michigan
Small Play/Lean: Ball State +6
All of a sudden, Ball State is not looking all that bad. Once they got to
their conference part of the schedule, they started winning and surprising
quite a few people. Since that crushing 60 pts loss to Auburn, they went 3-3
SU and 5-1 ATS, including two straight dog wins in last two games. Now they
are looking to revenge two straight losses against EMU, and EMU, by the way,
is on a 4 game losing streak. Perfect timing for Ball State to revenge two
taugh losses against Eastern Michigan. Ball State is one of the best redzone
teams in the MAC (believe it or not) and EMU is one of the worst. I won't be
shocked if Ball State pulls their third uspet in a row here.Here is one very
solid system supporting Ball State in the dog role:
Play on 7-dogs revenging upset loss of 7pts or less: 31-9 ATS L7Y
Arizona State +3.5 @ UCLA
Small Play/Lean: Arizona State +3.5
UCLA is not undefeated any more. And teams that suffer their first loss this
late in the season, usually struggle to get back on track in their next
game. And while UCLA has to find a way to get back on track now, Arizona
State found that way in two straight wins following their disappointing
losses to USC etc. UCLA will get their share of points in this one, but so
will ASU. The difference here might be the redzone efficiency and the
defense. ASU seems to be more capable of making a key stop on defense than
UCLA. ASU is also a top 5 redzone efficiency edge play this week. Strong
system supporting ASU:
Play on @dogs off @dog win, opp. of @fav loss: 38-14 ATS L15Y.
Same system if favored by 7-: 33-9 ATS and 28-14 SU.
Same system if favored by 4-: 26-4 ATS, 22-8 SU, 12-0 ATS Last 12.
Northwestern +19 @ Ohio State
Small Play/Lean: Northwestern +19
This line keeps going up, and I understand why. Northwestern has no defense
and OHST defense is one of the best in NCAA this year. Maybe even one of the
best in recent years. However, I stil believe in NW, and their offense,
enough to take all those points, against a team (OHST) that is not known as
a offensive powerhouse. I know OHST offense looked good recently, but the
scoring is not their trade mark and they can start struggling again on any
given Saturday. Northwestern is stil not getting any respect. In games
played vs common opponents, NW has a better redzone efficiency than OHST.
They are full of confidence, especially after that come-from-behind win over
Iowa last week. If their defense was any better, they would not be getting
this many points. System supporting Northwestern:
Play against road favs revenging a road upset loss in which they were
favored by 7 or more, and opponent is off a dog win: 18-3 ATS L20Y.
Same system is 13-0 ATS if opp won by 3- in its previous game.
S.Florida -8 @ Syracuse
Small Play/Lean: Syracuse +8 (FREE LEAN)
Last home game of the season for Syracuse, last winnable game of the season
as well, and obviously last chance to end that ugly losing streak. And if
they were not able to fix some of the problems during their bye week, they
never will. Due to one posponed game on their schedule, S.Florida is playing
their 4th straight road game and their first game on turf this season. Last
week's win at Rutgers was a good one, but Rutgers was playing that game with
two seriously banged up quarterbacks. And despite that, Rutgers almost
erased a 21 pts early deficit, as they scored 30+ on SFL and won three
quarters of that game. SFL is just not a kind of a team that should be
laying this many points on the road, against a team that has a 23-6 ATS home
dog record in last 20+ years and a 11-3 SU record in last home games in last
14 seasons. Two solid systems supporting Syracuse:
Play against teams play 4th straight @game, opp off HL: 21-9 ATS L14Y
Play against @ teams off 14+W as @dog, not off bye: 21-7 ATS L12Y.
Just passing along info, hope to help everyone out. This system works very well.
