wisher4, you asked for it-wed comment/selection

[pepin46]

one game only that i picked out of 7 i looked at:

atlanta -145 at florida

maddux

started the season with a bang: his first four games were like this: 27 innings, 2 earned runs, 1 homer, 0 bases on balls. this include 2 prior confrontations with florida, where he allowed no earned runs in 13 innings. so now he faces florida again and beats them, right? not so fast. of his last 5 games, he only had one gem, on may 2nd at home vs. milwaukee. now he is allowing about 2 1/2 walks per 9 innings, vs. 0 per 9 his first four games. also, his worst games have been on the road, as in his last 3 he has been averaging 3 basesonballs and 9 hits per 9 innings, for an era of around 7!!!!!!

burnett

got in the highlight with his famous 9 bases on balls no-hitter on the road. what is wrong with burnett? too many bases on balls, averaging 7-8 per 9 innings. what is right with him? if you throw away his no-hitter, he still sports a mind boggling 1 point something era. his last outing was not great, as he allowed an unusual 8 hits in 6.1 innings (but only 4 walks) and it looks like a reliever saved his a..., and he ended up with the win.
now, considering his age, his game after the no-hitter can be overlooked, as he gets back in the real world. his hits/bb per 9 innings did jump a bit on his last game, very near the point of no return, that is the drawback.

in conclusion, taking the large disparity in their recent eras and burnettes magical way of not allowing many runs, would suggest to me that florida should be the favorite here, thus i will take the +125, +135, a premium which seems to be based on the maddux name and glory, not on the data available.


pep

 

[Kevin]

Nice thought pep. Maddux might very well pitch a 2 run ball game but who's gonna drive in runs for atl? They looked pathetic yesterday vs. an average pitcher in chuck smith.

 

[pepin46]

kevin

i knew you were out there, probably sipping too much coffee, like me.

i assume you are the one in the uhc contest, which i just saw yesterday for the first time. nice going, and jack is on your tail, although it looks like a lot of space between contestants. i will keep an eye on it.

my one fear here is that burnett combines a deadly combination of bbs and hits. i am throwing out his last one because of the no-hitter prior to that one. he probably took a lot of pressure from the press, etc. i'm sure you have been around long enough to have witnessed people collapse right after a record tying/breaking effort, especially at his age.

well, tomorrow, or rather, later, will tell the tale.


pep

 

[TDP]

I have really enjoyed reading the posts at this forum. The diversity here is astounding and refreshing all at the same time. As far as Atl/Fla tomorrow, I went with Atlanta. No question Atlanta is lacking in offense. But I am of the following opinion. I am 90% sure that Maddux will go at least 7 strong allowing a minimum of runs. I base this on his history. Burnett while having talent is prone to the walk as mentioned above. He is young and will not keep up the pace he is on. Maybe in a few years but not now. I see the braves working Burnett for several walks. Nothing helps a sagging offense more than free passes. A few hits is all it will take. Maddux will do the rest(provided the bullpen holds up its end). You can analyze this and that, turn it upside down looking for angles. But I have to go with Maddux and see if Atlanta can score a few runs off a talented, but young and a bit of an overachieving pitcher in Burnett. No one knows for sure in any one game but I will take my chances. But keep in mind this opinion is coming from someone who is struggling himself at the moment. But I do believe in history, both mine and Maddux's. I enjoy reading all these posts. I feel like a kid in a candy store. GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE TODAY...............

 

[pepin46]

hey, tdp, it is people like you, jumping in, making their comments, giving opinions, that makes it double enjoyable.

as to the game, i don't even know the time, but like you said, there is a case for and against. unless it is a rainout, i'll bet you one of us will nail it.

pep

 

[nole47]

hold that thought till september 27