Thanks Roger. In answer to your question, I put a lot of value in watching teams; call it visual inspection. And yes I do look at offensive/defensive patterns. I don't throw out stats and trends by any means, nor do I discount line moves. However, I figure most of what is out there is also available to the linemaker, so when looking for my edge, I find staying with a team on a 3 or 4 game run gives me a chance to probe deeper. A couple of examples are this recent road trip of the Raptors and the Hawks since the new coach took over.
When trying to put your stamp on a team a coach in the middle of the season, with less practice time, has to do litle things. Stotts has concentrated on the Hawks defense because it was so glaringly terrible and therefore easy to change in a hurry.
Hubie Brown in Memphis was a textbook example, when he took over. He even told the press his first 5 games were going to be evaluations.
The Raptors cannot play defense. Whether they are uncoachable or simply outmanned, I think its the former, they make the same mistakes over and over again. This sets up tonight's play for me.
Jazz- best coached team in the league, most disciplined, at home against the Raptors-undermanned, back to back, in altitude, playing defense poorly.
I cannot factor whether the Raptors jump shooters will hit or not, so I don't play the game total. I do factor that the Raptors will not stop the pick and roll, so I wait for the team total for the Jazz to come out and play it.
I don't know if the folks here in this forum simply want picks, or detailed explanations for the plays. If I have time, I will post my analysis of why I'm making a play. I do not play every night. Sometimes there are no plays worth the risk vs the reward. I think tonight the Jazz team total in the first half and in the game are worth it.
Knicks +6 is an interesting look. How many times have the Spurs covered that number on the road? But I'm not playing it. Spurs size down low vs the smallish Knicks makes this a crapshoot to me. I do not wish to gamble. I'm looking for more evidence, call it my due diligence, before I invest.
Hope this long-winded response answered your question.
Best of luck to you and Happy New Year!
