34-38-1 (-7.1)
A winning week... :142smilie
Gerrard under 240.5 passing
Jags have played some pretty bad pass D's, and Gerrard has played accordingly. KC, Ten, SL and Arizona are all 22nd or worse for pass yards allowed, and they are the 4 games they have thrown for more than this.
Seattle (17th), Houston (18th) and Indi (9th) have all held them to less pass yards...Jets are number 2, number 1 for y/pass.
They've held Brees to 190, Brady to 216 and Schaub to 166.
Tenn -6.5
Titans have a terrible pass D, but so have Miami, and they held Edwards and the Bills to less than 250 total yards in a 10-38 loss.
Johnson should have a monster day, Young has been mistake free, and their defense is just about back to full strength.
If they can hold onto the ball (last 2 Bills' wins they've benefitted from 10 TO's!) Titans should win easily.
Miami -9.5
League: 1-9 (0-10 this no...av. loss 22.9!) road 7+ dog, total 42.5+ off a 7+ ats win as home 7+ dog. [TB]
Back to Earth this week for Freeman and the Bucs. Outgained by 120+ yards and over 10 mins less TOP last week, they've still given up over 24 points in every game except v. Washington...now playing a team av'ing 31.5 ppg at home...and that's v. 2 undefeated teams and the 2nd ranked total D!
Beat the Bills 38-10, so no reason they won't belt a Bucs team who is just as bad.
NE @ Indi under 49.5
2 very good offenses for sure...but also 2 very good pass D's...the 2 best they've each faced by a long way.
Indi haven't played a team in the top 16 for passing D...in fact 6 of 8 games have been against the bottom 10...NE are 4th.
Pats have played 3 teams in the top 14...scored 17 @ Denver (7th best) and just 9 @ NYJ (the best)...Indi are 2nd best.
(They were gifted 25 points v. Buff way back in week 1)
NE held Indi to 18 at home last year, and Indi have allowed more than 17 just once all season inc. Houston last week.
Atlanta -1.5
League: 8-21 (5-25 SU...av. loss 9.5) Div home dog, off 30+ TOP as a 10+ dog. [Caro]
0-5 (Av. loss 10.8) if they had 150+ rushing.
Panthers are a one-trick pony, and no-one will know it better than the Falcons. 2 of their 3 wins so far have been on the back of 250+ yard rushing games, so the Falcons will no doubt be making Delhomme pass to beat them.
Falcons offense has been fine, av'ing over 25 ppg...they've been beaten by 3 teams who are a combined 20-4, and also happen to be the top 3 for total offense...Carolina are 21st, and won't be able to keep up.
Denver @ Washington under 37
Denver are now 1-7 under on the season. Orton has shown he can't get scores on the board v. top defenses...and Washington are 6th for total D...and as I said last week, Denver have now played two teams in the top 18 for scores allowed. Redskins are 9th best.
...but of course Washington are terrible offensively themselves, having not topped 17 yet.
Denver D still going pretty well...they've given up some points in recent weeks, but still only allowed 17+ in 3 games...all to teams 13th or better for scoring (24.4ppg or more)...Washington score just 14.1.
Oakland v. KC under 37
The ol' home fav of 3 or less off a BYE system.
Inside the Div...total under 38...just about perfect results over the last 20 years...
...but either way, 2 terrible offenses. The 30th and 31st teams for y/play...29th and 28th for y/rush...both converting <30% 3rd downs...
First meeting was 10-13 (with 14 points in the last 5 minutes!)...and not one of the last 7 meetings have topped 37.
Actually got some luck last week, esp. @ Seattle...
...given only 3 favs covered last week, it may be a stretch to be on 3 here...but pretty happy with this lot.
Good Luck all.
A winning week... :142smilie
Gerrard under 240.5 passing
Jags have played some pretty bad pass D's, and Gerrard has played accordingly. KC, Ten, SL and Arizona are all 22nd or worse for pass yards allowed, and they are the 4 games they have thrown for more than this.
Seattle (17th), Houston (18th) and Indi (9th) have all held them to less pass yards...Jets are number 2, number 1 for y/pass.
They've held Brees to 190, Brady to 216 and Schaub to 166.
Tenn -6.5
Titans have a terrible pass D, but so have Miami, and they held Edwards and the Bills to less than 250 total yards in a 10-38 loss.
Johnson should have a monster day, Young has been mistake free, and their defense is just about back to full strength.
If they can hold onto the ball (last 2 Bills' wins they've benefitted from 10 TO's!) Titans should win easily.
Miami -9.5
League: 1-9 (0-10 this no...av. loss 22.9!) road 7+ dog, total 42.5+ off a 7+ ats win as home 7+ dog. [TB]
Back to Earth this week for Freeman and the Bucs. Outgained by 120+ yards and over 10 mins less TOP last week, they've still given up over 24 points in every game except v. Washington...now playing a team av'ing 31.5 ppg at home...and that's v. 2 undefeated teams and the 2nd ranked total D!
Beat the Bills 38-10, so no reason they won't belt a Bucs team who is just as bad.
NE @ Indi under 49.5
2 very good offenses for sure...but also 2 very good pass D's...the 2 best they've each faced by a long way.
Indi haven't played a team in the top 16 for passing D...in fact 6 of 8 games have been against the bottom 10...NE are 4th.
Pats have played 3 teams in the top 14...scored 17 @ Denver (7th best) and just 9 @ NYJ (the best)...Indi are 2nd best.
(They were gifted 25 points v. Buff way back in week 1)
NE held Indi to 18 at home last year, and Indi have allowed more than 17 just once all season inc. Houston last week.
Atlanta -1.5
League: 8-21 (5-25 SU...av. loss 9.5) Div home dog, off 30+ TOP as a 10+ dog. [Caro]
0-5 (Av. loss 10.8) if they had 150+ rushing.
Panthers are a one-trick pony, and no-one will know it better than the Falcons. 2 of their 3 wins so far have been on the back of 250+ yard rushing games, so the Falcons will no doubt be making Delhomme pass to beat them.
Falcons offense has been fine, av'ing over 25 ppg...they've been beaten by 3 teams who are a combined 20-4, and also happen to be the top 3 for total offense...Carolina are 21st, and won't be able to keep up.
Denver @ Washington under 37
Denver are now 1-7 under on the season. Orton has shown he can't get scores on the board v. top defenses...and Washington are 6th for total D...and as I said last week, Denver have now played two teams in the top 18 for scores allowed. Redskins are 9th best.
...but of course Washington are terrible offensively themselves, having not topped 17 yet.
Denver D still going pretty well...they've given up some points in recent weeks, but still only allowed 17+ in 3 games...all to teams 13th or better for scoring (24.4ppg or more)...Washington score just 14.1.
Oakland v. KC under 37
The ol' home fav of 3 or less off a BYE system.
Inside the Div...total under 38...just about perfect results over the last 20 years...
...but either way, 2 terrible offenses. The 30th and 31st teams for y/play...29th and 28th for y/rush...both converting <30% 3rd downs...
First meeting was 10-13 (with 14 points in the last 5 minutes!)...and not one of the last 7 meetings have topped 37.
Actually got some luck last week, esp. @ Seattle...
...given only 3 favs covered last week, it may be a stretch to be on 3 here...but pretty happy with this lot.
Good Luck all.
