Wk. 11.

[MrChristo]

37-42-1 (-8.45) ...with time running out! kurby

Miami @ Carolina under 43

League: 5-14-1 under (Av. total 45.8...av. score 39.1) home fav of 3 or more, total 42.5+, off a 10+ ats win as home (-3 to +3) [Caro]
0-6 (Av. score 34.0) if they had <30 TOP.
(inc. Phil v. Dallas '09 & Caro v. Denv '08)

Miami have scored well enough at home, but the road has been a different story.
17 @ NE...just 9 @ Jets offensively with a total of just over 100 yards! :scared ...
...13 @ SD and 7 @ Atl.
Panthers' run D has been a problem, but no Brown to contend with, no Fasona...
Miami run D allowing just 3.7 ypc should be able to hold Williams/Stewert in check (if they play), and while their pass D has been awful, I'm not sure Delhomme can get the Panthers into the high 20's on his own.

 

[Hooks]

Looks solid. Chris, keep banging em . You'll get there. I have confidence in you buddie.

 

[tulah]

Still plenty of time to get on the + side..
Your plays and logic make sense but this has been a crazy year in the NFL...You'll get back on track:mj06:

GL this week:toast:

 

[MrChristo]

Thanks guys. :toast:

Probably got a bit lucky with the under, but really, it shouldn't have even been that close.

Det v. Cleveland under 38.5

League: 1-12 under (Av. total 38.1...av. score 30.1) at home off a 14+ SU loss as a 10+ dog, if opp last had <115 passing yards. [Det]

What else can be said?! Just 2 crap offenses.
Stafford av'ing 16 ppg...and that was with the gifts at Seattle...Cleveland, well... :mj07:
Sure, 2 bad D's as well, but Detroit have had a tough run...they've played 5 teams in the top 9 for total offense...held Chicago (16th) to less than 300 yards...and the 2 teams in the bottom 10 they've held Washington and SL to both <20.

Cinci -9.5 (2.05)

League: 0-10 (Av. loss 17.8) home 7+ dog, off a SU loss as home (-3 to +3) if total is <39. [Oak]
(inc. Oak v. Carolina, '08 & Oak v. KC, '06)

Gradkowski takes on the 2nd best team in the NFL for scores allowed? :142smilie
Oakland don't score 10.
Cinci av'ing 22 on the road will be enough to cover...not sure how badly losing Benson will affect their offense, but will be taking a pretty close look at the under as well.

SF @ GB under 42.5

League: 2-14-2 under (Av. total 40.2...av. score 33.0) any home fav off a 7+ ats (and SU) win as home dog, if opp last had <150 yards passing. [GB]

GB have been surprisingly good defensively, 4th overall, and importantly in this game, 4th against the run, allowing just 93 ypg @ 3.5
SF still very much a run first team, av. less than 20 ppg on the road, and this will be the first time they've faced a D in the top 12 overall.
GB have played (and scored big against) Det, TB, SL, Cleveland...scored 17 offensive points v. both Cinci and Dallas (both in the top 10 for scoring allowed)...and SF is the next best they've faced! (20 ppg)...
...they give up just over 21 ppg on the road, despite having played 4 teams in the top 11 for total offense.

 

[MrChristo]

Eli OVER 215.5

Looks a low number against this Atlanta pass D.
They rank 28th against the pass and have given up 277 yards in 5 of their 9 games so far.
Less to Caro, Wash, SF and Mia [Pennington] who are all 20th or worse for passing yards.
NYG are 14th best...and Eli has gone over this number in 5 of 9...
...less v. SD (215) who are 11th best pass D, Oakland and TB in big wins (who are 14th and 15th in pass yards allowed anyway), and 178 @ NO before leaving the game...Carr then threw for 72...

Jones-Drew OVER 96.5 rushing

This one is all about the Bills. Given up a 100 yard rusher in 6 of their last 7 (Williams 16/89) and are the NFL's worst run D, giving up 170 ypg @ 5.1.
J-D is 6 for 9 over this number anyway...in all 3 he didn't reach 90 yards he has 13 or less carries (av. 10), which should not be a problem here with Buffalo giving up 34 rushes per game.
Should only need 20 anyway.

Schaub OVER 275.5

This could be the sucker bet of the week...but I'm not so sure the NFL's second worst pass D has suddenly changed it's spots.
They gave up 280+ to Alex Smith a couple of weeks back...the 190 or so to Edwards last week is irrelevant...
Schaub has thrown less than this 4 times...3 v. top 14 pass D's...264 v. SF is a slight concern, but it is still above their allowed av. (248)...Titans give up 270.
Obviously 357 in their first meeting, but also 284 at home last year v. a far better Tenn pass D...and over 300 last game @ Indi (16th best @ 214) despite missing Daniels.


Good Luck all.

Oh, the player props I take are from UK based books...one starts with the same letter as London...
...and one tells you how many days a year you can bet.

 

[baby johnson]

lets kick some arse mr c

 

[MrChristo]

Hopin' this is the break out week baby j... :drinky:

One last...

10pt teaser...

Wash +21, Min -0.5, Cinci @ Oak under 46

I thought Dallas were going along ok, but at a closer look they've played just 3 teams in the top 12 for scores allowed...scored 10 @ Denver (4), 20 @ Philli (12) and 7 @ GB (10)...Washington are 9th...
...they also scored just 21 at home to 12th ranked total D Carolina inc. a late pick 7.
Washington av'ing a little over 16 ppg on the road, and...Three weeks ago, Sherm Lewis, Washington offensive consultant, took over the play-calling duties from head coach Jim Zorn.
The Redskins have had their second-, fourth- and fifth-best yardage totals of the season since then. They tied for their most first downs in a game (22) and had 21 in another. Last week against Denver, they put up a season-high 27 points.

2 close games last year...3 TD's is a lot!


Minni playing too well to let this one slip. Seattle have wins over Det, Jax and SL...and are 0-4 on the road, giving up 31.5 ppg.

Like I said, I don't think Da Raiders can score 10...pretty sure Cinci won't score 37! :toast:

 

[genosays]

Good luck on your action Mr Christo, like that SF/GB under quite a bit myself .... hey question for you .... do you know if any of the English books take US residents (Ladbrokes, William Hill, Bet365 or any others you know of) .... have been trying to bet on UK horse racing without a lot of luck. Thanks for anything you may know about that.

 

[MrChristo]

I've just had a quick look around at 4 or 5 that I know of, but yeah, none of them accepting US residents I'm afraid. :shrug:

Not sure there'd be any easy way around it either.

 

[BigGaycapper]

Im gonna get all over that MJD prop, hes gonna have a field day today

 

[Old School]

:SIB

Wash +21, Min -0.5, Cinci @ Oak under 46

 

[Old School]

teasers....a beautiful thing


:yup :yup :yup :yup :yup :yup