Wk 3 Super 12 plays

A

Anders

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Dec 17, 2000
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Two plays for tonight.

Game One) Highlanders v Cats, Carisbrook
Highlanders -23

Home team has been very impressive in opening 2 matches; pushing the Crusaders close and thumping the Sharks. They get Taine Randell back at blindside tonight, allowing sensational young talent Sam Harding to get the No7 shirt, where he should be even more effective. The Cats were destroyed last weekend by the Brumbies and are a shell of the side of the last 2 years. Their opening day win over the Bulls only highlighted how poor both teams are. Otago coach Laurie Mains will know the Cats players inside out and won't hesitate to run up the score. Spread may be covered late but the Highlanders' efficient 15-man game will constantly wear down the cumbersome Cats.

PLAY HIGHLANDERS -23

Game Two) Brumbies v Sharks, Bruce Stadium
Brumbies -22.5

Very surprised by the Sharks' capitulation last weekend, which followed their second half meltdown v the Stormers. However, I think those 2 games has helped us in beating the line here. Remember, this game is a repeat of last year's final - won comfortably by the Brumbies but a game that was very tight for 60 minutes. I'd be stunned if the Sharks were poor 3 games in a row - I think coach Straeuli will be very keyed up for this game; seeing both teams may form the basis of Boks v Wallabies tests later this year that he will be in charge of the Yarpies. Brumbies were at their calculating best last weekend but had no opposition to test them. The Sharks know they have to show sterner stuff tonight to salvage their season already.

PLAY SHARKS +23.5

** I have already placed a 5 unit wager on the Crusaders -2.5 over the Blues for tomorrow's game. Believe the line will move and that there is monstrous value in this play. Preview tomorrow.

** Also added 2 prop bets: Top tryscorer in Super 12 - G Bond (Brumbies) 20-1 x half unit; J Maddock (Crusaders) 14-1 x half unit


GLTA :)
 
A

Anders

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Dec 17, 2000
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Game Four)

Crusaders v Blues, Jade Stadium
Crusaders -2.5

Don't think this line exists now at many books; with some luck it may be uncovered - I played this at Centrebet on Wed. Nervous as hell now of course as this is as big a wager I've had but believed it warranted the plunge.
Let's look at the game closely then to see if I can justify the method to my madness. Crusaders are 2-0 SU but 0-2 ATS - indicating accurately that while they've done enough to get eight points, they've been slightly less impressive than was expected from a virtual All Black XV.
At home v the Highlanders, they looked set to win comfortably at halftime but just snuck home. Two rounds later, we've got a good look at how good the Highlanders are - in the South Island at least.
Away to the Chiefs, they looked in trouble for 60 mins, raced away to look like covering the spread in a 10 min burst, then had to hang on for dear life for the win. A tough assignment though - Chiefs raised their game at the launch of their new home.
The Blues looked world beaters in hammering the woeful 'canes first up and for 15 mins v the Reds seemed set to repeat the dose before their world crumbled.
Now we get the linemakers giving the 14 All Blacks + Joe Maddock (+ 3 ABs in the reserves) at home less than a penalty kick start v the Blues who have yet to prove a thing in the comp?
Yes the Crusaders have been patchy - but they are always slow starters and there have been signs in the fits and starts that they will be untouchable (apart from v the Brumbies) when rolling. As always, first-five Andrew Mehrtens is the key pulling the strings and the pack should give him enough reign to escape the clutches of Blues' loosie Matua Parkinson - more of a ball forager than a No10 chasing flanker.
The Blues have injury problems - out are Rupeni Caucaunibuca, lock Vula Mairmuri and perhaps crucially, halfback Mark "Sharky" Robinson. His replacement Steve Devine is a good player but not the physical presence Robinson is; esp. when his opposite, Justin Marshall, is virtually an extra loose forward the way he plays.
In front of the madly parochial Canterbury crowd, the Crusaders should have too much in the armoury and break their ATS duck this weekend.

PLAY CRUSADERS -2.5 (5 units)
 
1837

1837

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Feb 26, 2001
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Somewhere South of Quebec and North of Boston...
Hey kiwis boy!:p

You said it was your biggest play so far this season? I have Crusaders at -3 and -3.5 over here. I'm going to coatail you:cool:

Let's bring some $$$ to papa's :D

By the way, your Kiwi boy Dixon is racing today don't you know?:p Hope to see you in Cart thread!:cool:
 
W

Whale

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Apr 19, 2001
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GL Anders !

Just hope it's not a bail out bet from last weekend, but hey i know you wouldn't, just that I know at times I would!

Again GL! :D
 
A

Anders

Bandit
Forum Member
Dec 17, 2000
4,120
2
0
New Zealand
:D

Thanks fellas - Proline; great to see u in here again this season ol' bud; 1837 - on the Cart like white on rice :)

One more for the weekend...

Game Six) Bulls v Waratahs
Bulls +8.5

After all 4 home teams have covered the spread to date - ahead of the Reds v Chiefs game which I'm passing on - the easy thing to do would be to back the home team in SA getting quite a few points.
But it's the Bulls.
Yes, maybe they should have beaten the Cats in that opening week game that had a 14-pt turnaround right on FT. But they didn't, and look how bad the Cats have proven to be. Then the Bulls got soundly beaten by the 'canes, who have been thrashed in their other two outings.
When your own coach admits you're not up to this level, things are very bleak. The Bulls lack size, mobility, but most importantly, the basic skill levels to compete.
The Waratahs don't. They have been very good in their first two matches; winning SU and ATS away in NZ and SA and they must be ****-a-hoop at present.
They may have relied on Nathan Grey's late droppy to beat the Stormers, but it shouldn't have been that close - they had a legitimate try disallowed by the video ref while the Stormers had a ridiculous try that wasn't awarded to them.
Much more on this subject to follow in a few days.
The Waratahs have a solid pack, pacy and strong backs and perhaps most importantly in this comp, a trusty goalkicker in Matt Burke - I've been astounded at how atrocious the SA kickers have been to date.
Rare to take a side in SA giving up more that a try but still think this play has value at this stage.

PLAY NSW WARATAHS -8.5 (1 unit)
 
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