Womens-Friday and Saturday

hawkeye

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+ 6 units for when the tourneys started.
Lines are very tight
How many teams who get a good lead at the end will let up to allow for a back door coves as they prepare for who they play next. If the favorites win Fri/Sat the next games look like this----Bay/LVille--MissSt/Tex---SC/Conn---ND/Oreg---if that happens great match ups.
Get your picks in early as these lines are going to start moving quickly. My 1st run tkru of games only gave me 2 I liked?
gl
 

Okie

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Hawk

Hawk

FYI
5 Dimes Lines I got this early am 3/20/18 for reference

Miss St 10- 127-

Tejas 6- 144-

Louie 8- 128-

Mulkey 16- 135-

Geno 22- 133-

Cocks 7- 144-

Muff 13- 164-

Ducks 13- 158-
 

hawkeye

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Saturday & Friday--will be looking mostly at 1st qtr sides/totals.
Will play these 2 now for 1/2's-maybe raise them depending on the lines:
Cards-10'-- Longhorns -6'--gl
 
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Musca

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Its interesting that Texas line has dropped like it has... When I look around I see more people on Texas than I do on UCLA. I do not have access to bet percentages on womens ball but my instincts are there are some sharps on UCLA. I feel like UT -4 is really nice value. This line IMHO should be 8/9 or so.

Stanford +14.5- WE know the cards have players and playing in Lexington will definitely give an advantage but something tells me that Stanford defense makes this one a game. I think the Pac 12 plays great womens ball and I think U of L could be susceptible here.
 

Musca

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Texas
#7 in Defensive Rebounding Rate gathering 75% of opponent misses

● #11 in preventing assists with an Opponent Assisted Shot Rate of 46%
● #14 in Margin of Victory Per Possession winning by 23 points per 100 possessions
● #16 in Offensive Rebounding Rate tracking down the board after 41% of their misses
● Top 10% in the country in Pace with 75 possessions per 40 minutes
● #26 with 17 Assists Per Game but the Longhorns are just 272nd (Bottom 33%) in Assisted Shot Rate with assists on only 52% of their field goals
● Bottom 10% of Division I in Three Point Rate with 24% of their field goal attempts behind the arc
● Bottom 15% in Free Throw Rate with 0.24 free throw attempts per field goal attempt
● Ariel Atkins​ is 48th (Top 2%) in Shooting Efficiency averaging 1.26 points each time she tries to shoot including when fouled (1.26 points per true shooting attempt)
● Atkins is Top 3% in 2P% making 59% and Top 10% in 3P% hitting 41%; only Atkins, Micaela Kelly (Central Michigan), Kia Nurse (UConn), and Katie Lou Samuelson (UConn) are in the top 10% in the NCAA in both 2P% and 3P% and remain in the tournament
● Joyner Holmes​ is in the top 2.5% of the country in both Offensive Rebounding Rate (grabbing 15% of the boards after teammates miss) and Defensive Rebounding Rate (grabbing 24% of rebounds after the opponent misses)
● Lashann Higgs​ is in the top 5% in Shooting Efficiency averaging 1.20 points each time she tries to shoot including when fouled


3 UCLA (​Click for Full Stats​)
● #4 in Opponent Block Rate with just 5% of the Bruins? two-point attempts blocked by opponents
● #10 in Offensive Rebounding Rate rebounding 41% of their own misses
● #13 in Turnover Rate turning the ball over on 14% of plays
● Jordin Canada​ ranks 8th in the country in Assist Rate assisting on 41% of her teammates? buckets when on the floor ● Canada ranks 10th in Steal Rate stealing the ball on 5% of opponent possessions ● Monique Billings​ is 37th (Top 1%) in the NCAA with 3.7 Offensive Rebounds Per Game
● Billings is in the top 5% with 1.6 Blocks Per Game
● Lajahna Drummer​ is in the top 5% of the country in Defensive Rebounding Rate pulling down the board on 22% of opponent misses
 

Musca

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CMU playing with incredible confidence but Oregon has more than one player unlike OSU. Oregon can lock you down. CMU defense is not great- I think Oregon can take them and maybe rather easily... 91-65 maybe?
2 Oregon (​Click for Full Stats​)
● #1 in 3P% shooting 41% from behind the line
● #2 in Offensive Efficiency averaging 118 points per 100 possessions
● #3 in 2P% shooting 56% from inside the arc
● #5 in Margin of Victory Per Possession winning by 28 points per 100 possessions
● Top 10% in low Foul Rate committing a foul on 21% of possessions
● Ruthy Hebard​ ranks 6th with a 66% FG%; her 2P% of 66% ranks 10th
● She is 14th in the nation in Shooting Efficiency averaging 1.34 points every time she tries to shoot including when fouled (1.34 points per true shooting attempt)
● Hebard ranks in the top 10% in both Offensive Rebounding Rate (grabbing 12% of Oregon?s misses) and Defensive Rebounding Rate (grabbing 21% of opponents? misses)
● Sabrina Ionescu​ ranks 3rd in the country with 1,274 minutes played
● Ionescu is 4th in the NCAA with 7.9 Assists Per Game; she ranks 17th (Top 1%) with assists on 39% of her teammates? baskets
● Ionescu ranks 36th in scoring averaging 20 Points Per Game
● She is in the top 5% in Shooting Efficiency averaging 1.21 points every time she tries to shoot, including when fouled; ​Lexi Bando​ ranks 18th averaging 1.32 points while ​Oti Gildon​ ranks 29th averaging 1.30
● Oregon has 3 players in the top 50 in Shooting Efficiency; only UConn has more with 4

11 Central Michigan (​Click for Full Stats​)
● #2 in Free Throw Percentage shooting 81% from the line
● #4 in Shooting Efficiency averaging 1.17 points when try to shoot including when fouled (1.17 points per true shooting attempt)
● #7 in Offensive Efficiency averaging 114 points per 100 possessions
● #13 in Foul Rate fouling opponents on 20% of possessions
● #273 (Bottom 25%) in Defensive Efficiency allowing 97 points per 100 possessions
● #340 (10th lowest) in Opponent Turnover Rate forcing turnovers on 14% of opponents? possessions
● Tinara Moore​ is 54th in scoring averaging 19 Points Per Game
● Moore is 35th (Top 1%) in Shooting Efficiency averaging 1.29 points every time she tries to shoot including when fouled
● Micaela Kelly​ is in the Top 5% in 2P% hitting 58% and Top 10% from deep hitting 40%; only Kelly, Ariel Atkins (Texas), Kia Nurse (UConn), and Katie Lou Samuelson (UConn) are in the top 10% in the NCAA in both 2P% and 3P% and remain in the tournament
● Presley Hudson​ is 11th in Free Throw Percentage shooting 93% from the line and 36th in 3P% shooting 44% from behind the arc
 

Musca

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South Carolina vs Buffalo

South Carolina vs Buffalo

If SC fucks around too much Buffalo can beat them. If SC is complacent at all then Buffalo will beat them... but not many lock you down like SC. SC defense is brutal and they may start guarding Buffalo when the bus arrives.
I think SC is better than the 1st two games... I feel like maybe we have had a little hangover after doing MSU in the SEC title game. But I am certain Dawn will get them focused. SC less than 10 seems too little to me. These MAC teams are good but lets be honest here... This is a real overlay making CMU only a 13 point dog and SC only a 7 point fave... Those lines should be 20 and 15
 

Old School

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Musca you were dead on about Baylor short bench and guard play being their undoing.

They needed Kristy Wallace Senior leadership on the floor tonite.

Morris point guard 3-14 at one point in the game[made 2 three's late to get it within 2] and ill advised shots .

Your hoops knowledge and others here thread owner certainly included make the site the "go to" for "the real deal".

Somebody knew something...Longhorns 6 points in 6 minutes
 

Musca

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Texas with 13 turnovers through the 2nd quarter... Ugly- If they can figure this out I think we get a hell of a game but if they keep turning the ball over then we have a blowout.

Maybe look for a 3rd quarter play or 2nd half play here. Ugly ugly start
 

Old School

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Stanford and Louisville in a classic up and down the floor..:00hour:00hour:00hour
 

Musca

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I PLAYED

I PLAYED

PLayed UT -5.5 Even MOney 2nd half

I think Over 78 also but I am not sure whats up yet. Lets play UT -5.5 +100 for 50$ just a little play...
 

Musca

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Beyond Oregon State

Beyond Oregon State

Pretty ugly night. UCLA was DEFINITELY able to speed UT up and force a TO on 35% of their possessions.. UGLY. Also, they were able to keep UT off the boards. That UCLA team is dangerous.

Oregon State looks great and welcome to the world GUllich... but before we anoint her lets meet the big girl for Oregon Ruthy Hebard. Hebard and Ionescu are an amazing 1-2 punch.

SC playing Buffalo in Albany is not a nice thing the NCAA did for Dawn and the lady cocks.
Oregon playing in Spokane is very nice of NCAA- CMU is a good team but Oregon is national title worthy. They are good.
Texas A&M with the huge 3 to beat Depaul was exciting.... Wonder if the UND injuries kick in now we see A&M and their guards go to work... UND is vulnerable... This game could be a shootout

Duke- I have NO feel for this team. I have been against them will Belmont and Georgia. I expect them to get beaten by 35 here but shit with how I have been going they could win. I will try to post some advanced stats if any of you use them...

Take care guys
 

hawkeye

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Won 3-lost 5 missed that WVa total by 1'-darn-gambling
Still have USA Jags going today.
Good to see Baylor and Texas get beat and get some new/fresh teams in there.
Back later. 1st qtr overs worked well. gl
+ 5 units
 
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