wonder how this approach would work?

[MadJack]

we all know that you could NEVER win just by looking at the lines and betting without any research. just by picking the teams you 'think' should win would never bring home the money, right? you can't win money betting sports like that! i'm sure you've seen guys lose their asses betting like that.

soooooo, why not load up your favorite book's website, quickly look over the lines, pick out the obvious winners, THEN, bet the opposite. that would work!

 

[yyz]

Ahhhhhh, but the thing we need to remember is this:

It's not that you always play the wrong side, but rather the piss poor way you manage your money.

(Not you in specific, Jack.)

 

[Kevin]

Thats funny that you say that jack. I've thought it numerous times and have never done anything with it. lol Lets try it sometime for a week and see what pans out

 

[Nolan Dalla]

I strongly disagree with this methodology.

Here's why:

You are making a faulty assumption that you can automatically "morph" into some kind of rank amateuer handicapper, turning back the intellectual clock so-to-speak, and then use the mistaken methods of those "uninformed" plays by betting the opposite. Sounds logical, but it's practically impossible -- unless you are able to suspend intelligence and regress to a more child-like state.

Let's say you were a horrible handicapper five years ago (before the Internet made almost everyone better handicappers). You used to pick up the sports page everyday, look at the box scores, and make your daily plays based on the trash that the sportswriters write. Now, you DO EXACTLY THE SAME THING (shut off the computer and read what the writers think) and instead of betting on those plays, you simply bet the other way. Seems like you would be certain to hit 55 percent or better, right (based on your losses in the past)?

Wrong.

The trouble is over the years you have conditioned yourself mentally -- both consciously and subconsciously -- to look at certain conditions and NOT fall for sucker trends and make knee-jerk reactions that you used to do, which served to destroy your bankroll. You may think you can "dummy down" your intellect and turn into a beer-drinking bufoon, but it's just not going to happen once you have progressed to fine wine. You have trained yourself too strongly over the years to now look for value, consider lines and movement, and avoid pitfalls that were the landmines that blew you out of the sky. Just as a PhD would have trouble writing a high school paper in language that would be palatable for that level -- an experienced, knowledgeable handicapper cannot simply SUSPEND nor DISMISS all that he has learned over the years, and turn into some idiot that fell off the turnip truck. In short, reverse methodology does not work due to our human intellectual limitations.

The only way to actually apply this type of logic is the following scenario (in my opinion): Find a bettor who is a very bad handicapper....particularly somneone that makes uninformed, and publically-popular judgements about teams. Find out his plays. Do not let him know your intentions (important!). Then, bet the other way. I admit I myself have bet against some sports associates in the past -- because they just didn't have a clue. I even have a theory (unproven) that if you subscribe to some tout services -- you can actually make money by BETTING THE OTHER WAY. imagine -- paying for a service, then BETTING AGAINST THEM!!!

But that's a topic for discussion another time.

-- Nolan Dalla

 

[kosar]

Nolan,

Pop psychology notwithstanding, how about we get my 25 yr old sister (who wouldn't know a football from catchers mask) to glance at the games and tell us who SHE likes. Naturally, there is no way that SHE can pick winners. Right? She wouldn't need to be 'de-programmed' or anything. She has picked *nothing* up along the way.

While I agree that the idea that Jack ( in a tongue in cheek way)presents wouldn't work, I think that the reason is much more simple. It's basically random. And random doesn't hit 53% of the time over the long-haul. Not that complicated, really.

 

[buddy]

quote..."I even have a theory (unproven) that if you subscribe to some tout services--you can actually make money by BETTING THE OTHER WAY..."

for the longest time, I have thought that some tout services, especially ones with syndicated radio talk shows, are nothing more than shills for the casino that they promote.

This is a sleazy, slimy and highly unscrupulous business we have chosen to associate ourselves with, and for a casino to pay off a nationally known handicapper for selling a few bad picks makes perfect sense to me.

Especially when that handicapper has an established audience of unseasoned, unsuspecting, innocent victims.

 

[jmizeus]

i run a football pool every year for the last 11 years now and have about 30-35 people that play it.

all games are vs. the point spread and have a ratio of approx 30 men vs. 5 women and believe me the women do very well in this pool. you must pick all games vs. spread

i actually had one woman win back to back it just goes to show you that all the capping and all the knowledge men should have over woman in football capping its just not true

of course this is picking every game on the slot, but if a woman can do better than the men, what is the sense of capping.

i alway's thought i was a very good football capper and in this pool of the 11 years i ran it i have only won it 3 times.

 

[djv]

One may think a person any person would by dumb luck get 50%. Well you may do that with all kinds of hard work. Get 50%. I to am in a pool at work with 20 guys. Its vs the spread. I have won twice in 9 years. But I use there picks to help in another way. If they get loaded up on a team. The talk is about the killing coming that game. If my work tells me other way. Well the puplic can be very wrong. I also have the advantage a lind may come my way latter in the week on the net. We must have all picks in by Thursday. So what ever USA paper has that morning you live with. That in it's self can be work capping. So I give it a good go. But not as hard as what I will do that weekend. Or for that matter a early play on Tuesday or Wednesday. For what counts as bank roll matters much more. So having won that contest only twice. I call dumb luck. Nolan when you read this I have a hunch you may think im nuts. But!

 

[Ronbets]

Very nice Mr Kosar. You just hit the nail on the head. However, you are not answering the MAIN question.............Is she married??

 

[kosar]

Ron,

You ol' dog, unfortunately she got married about a month ago. If it goes south, I have you on my speed-dial..

You should hang around here a little more, sometimes *we* feel outnumbered, if you know what I mean....and I know you do.

 

[Hoops]

Yeah, with Beantown on hiatus, "you" guys are definitely outnumbered.

 

[kosar]

HOOPS,

DIDN'T YOU SEE KNEIFLS SPASTIC WHINING? I DON'T LIKE TO GET BASHED AND ALL OF THIS NEGATIVITY IS BRINGING ME DOWN. RONBETS AND MYSELF ARE NOT LIKE BEANTIMEJIM...NOT NOT NOT

IN CASE YOU FORGOT ,

HERE IT IS, FROM KNEIFLS MOUTH TO GODS EARS:

I DO NOT CARE WHO YOU ARE OR WHO YOU THINK YOU ARE GODLIKE CAPPER, OR JUST AN EGO PROBLEM, MAKES NO DIFFERENCE, NO ONE WANTS TO SEE BASHING GOING ON IN THIS FORUM OR ANY SORT OF NEGATIVITY!!!!!!!!! I THINK THAT MADJACK PROBABLY WOULD AGREE WITH ME ON THIS....

TAKE THIS TO HEART, HOOPS. THIS BOY HIT 70-80% LAST FOOTBALL SEASON AND HAD 17 WINNING WEEKS OUT OF 17. HE EVEN TOLD US SO. LISTEN UP FOR ONCE!!!!

 

[scrubbo]

I've actually used jacks method in a football pool a few years back.
I've been in the same football pool for the last 20 years. A few years back I had no time to study the weekly games so every week when it was time to fax my picks I'd quickly "knee jerk" the board. Then I'd take a seperate sheet of paper and write down the opposite picks.
For 6 weeks the system worked great, it hit 66%. This was pure luck.
Then my mind started playing games with me and I didn't know if I was playing the opposite or the team I really liked. Of course, major inconsistencies followed.

The system is impossible unless absolutely NO thought goes into the picking process.

In my view most of us are at Mjs because we're trying to educate ourselves and we don't want to bet and gamble like the "average Joe".

 

[Hoops]

Kosas- Chill out, dillweed.

I think you have more in common with Beantown than you realize.

I did forget about that post (I know, I know, how could I), but I certainly will follow anyone who can win every single week during pigskins. You would have to be a real dillweed not to.

[This message has been edited by Hoops (edited 07-25-2001).]

 

[kosar]

Hoops,

Please don't call me a doofus again. It brings back some very unpleasant memories from my childhood.

It was painful enough that my mom and dad nicknamed me 'doofus' when I was 3 yrs old, but at least they didn't call me that in front of anybody else until I was 14 yrs old. Then the unthinkable happened:

It was a hot day during my summer vacation in 1983 when I put on my shorts with the deepest pockets and headed over to the McCorkel residence to pay a visit to my classmates Tiffany and Tegan (twins).

We hung out in their driveway skipping rope( I was better than them --heehee) and playing hopscotch , like any other normal 14 yr olds.

Then I told them about a new game that I had recently became aware of, "Kiss the bunny between the ears". Now you know why I wore my shorts with the deepest pockets possible, as I wanted to have some respectable ears to display.

As I was awaiting their reaction to my idea, I heard somebody calling from far away, "Doooooofus, Dooooooofus, it's time to come home". I pretended no to hear it, but one of the twins (I don't recall which one-I couldn't tell them apart anyways) said, "Matt, that sounds like your mom".

I shrugged it off and repeated my request to play this new game. They were game!! Ohhhh mama!!

Just as soon as the festivities commenced, the twins shrieked in unison. I had no idea that this game would get them so worked up. What I didn't know is that my mother had approached me from the rear. I became painfully aware of this when I felt somebody grab a handful of my hair and throw me to the ground.

So, i'm on my back with my pockets turned inside out and I found myself looking up at a very pissed off mother.

She looks down at me and says, "Son, you truly *are* a doofus and that's all you'll ever be".

The McCorkel twins never looked at me the same again.

So Hoops, please think before you arbitrarily throw around names. For some of us, the wounds are deep.

 

[Hoops]

Kosar- Hey man, I'm REALLY sorry about that. I'm almost in tears reading about your childhood trauma. I don't know what to say. I hope you can accept my apology.

I'll go back and edit my post now. I hope the edited version is more to your liking.

 

[kosar]

I truly appreciate your sensitivity.

 

[buddy]

A kinder, more gentle beantownjim...
A kinder, more gentle Hoops....

"Who's next?"....

 

[Anders]

Jack _ I'll be your guinea pig here if you like, on MLB...

I have a limited knowledge of teams, pitchers etc but not having wagered on bases for the past few months, probably fall nicely into the "bad handicapper" category

Won't be able to play every day (on paper of course!) but will play a full card each day when I can and track results.

Could be an interesting experiment; will post it in the bases forum

 

[Ronbets]

Thanks Kosar and crew for the laughs. After yesterday's drubbing atleast I can pay my markers with a smile. I'm heading under the bed to regroup.