world class racing tomorrow, Belmont Stakes day
- Thread starter airportis
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Belmont Stakes
The Belmont is a different animal entirely than the 1st 2 legs of the TC. A distance these horses have never run before, and one they likely won't ever race again.
1.5 miles on the big sandy with its long swooping corners. a very unique track. some horses love the surface, some aren't fond of it. first thing I usually do when playing Belmont is look to see if the horse has run over the track and if they liked it. while this isn't always a deciding factor, I believe it is beneficial if they have already proven to like the track. I'll also look to see if they fired any decent works over the Belmont track. if you look at this, you must remember that Belmont has a separate training track, which is unlike the main racing surface, so be sure to distinguish which surface they trained on.
on to the contenders...
1- Governor Malibu
This guy came in 2nd in the G2 Peter Pan which is a prep for this race. figure wise, it was the best race of his career. If he runs back to that figure here, he is a contender at double digits odds. He has an inside post and a savvy Jock who knows the track. He should be able to save ground if he wants, and that could make some difference. He has a nice stalking running style and doesn't need to be too far back off the pace, which is good for this race. A lot of folks think a deep closer is better at this distance, but that is rarely the case. This trainer brought Tonalist to the Belmont in almost the same fashion. If Governor Malibu takes another step forward he is as likely as any to win, and like I noted earlier, a return to his previous effort last race still makes him a contender. I think this one offers tremendous value for what you get and he is one of my top selections to beat the favorite.
2- Destin
He is maybe the fastest horse in the race. Coming off 5 weeks rest out of the Derby which is right how Pletcher likes it. His sire, Giants Causeway, has seen his progeny take steps forward in this race year after year after year. Keen Ice, Commissioner, Palace Malice, Atigun, Ruler on Ice, Drosselmeyer all took steps forward in the Belmont. If Destin takes a step forward in this race, he is a likely winner. The connections are brilliant, he is regally bred, the Jock is one of the best in the NY circuit, he has won over the track, he has the ideal stalking run style. He gets every single check mark from me. 6-1 is a great price for what you get here as well, but I would think he goes off lower than that. Another one that is a top selection for me.
3- Cherry Wine
Nice horse, and a really nice effort last out in the Preakness to get into the exacta at big odds. But he ran his eyeballs out. It was a big effort, a career effort, and now he is off 3 weeks rest. I read this one to bounce here, although I do like his future over the summer.
4- Suddenbreakingnews
Probably the fastest closer in the race. But he is a closer. He won't be able to drop 20 lengths off the lead and finish with a fury in a 1.5 mile race. He is well bred and should get the distance, but the tactics are going to have to be spot on. He does get HOF jock Mike Smith, but that also hurts some of the value here as some people bet on a jock they are familiar with and Smith is as big a name as you'll get. His best effort makes him very competitive and it is likely he will return to that level here, but the question is whether it will be good enough at this distance with his running style. Still though, for what you get, the morning line odds are good value. He will likely go off under that, but he is still usable, especially in the exotics.
5- Stravidari
A lot like Destin, and in some peoples eyes, better. He caught a sloppy track and a wide trip in the Preakness and still ran respectably. Another Pletcher horse and Pletcher gets his runners to fire more frequently than he does in the Derby and Preakness. He will be on or near the lead and is a big time contender here. I would hope to get better odds but his eye popping wins of 11 and 14 lengths in the past performances will have a lot of people on board. Can't be ignored.
6- Gettysburg
Outclassed here. Will go to the front and try to "Da Tara" the field. Will try to win wire to wire at huge odds. I don't see it, but stranger things have happened.
7- Seeking The Soul
Has never raced longer than a mile and is now going to try 1.5. I don't think he has the stamina and this is a huge step up from racing maidens, which is all he has faced thus far.
8- Forever D'Oro
One that could have a nice future, but like the previous, another one who has only faced maidens thus far. While he has raced longer distances, he would need a big step up in class and number power to be competitive here. He also seems to do his best running from far back.
9- Trojan Nation
Another toss for me. Caught lightning in a bottle getting a muddy track and coming in 2nd in the Wood which propelled him into the Derby based off the points he earned. His Derby attempt was dreadful and although he did get the dreaded 1 post, he still didn't have much of a chance. Has been training out west and would need to step up from his lifetime best effort to be in the picture here. His running style also does him no favors as he too is most comfortable coming from far back.
10- Lani
I really like this horse. If he could actually catch a break, literally....he is off slow almost every race, he would be a much bigger factor. I've heard that he didnt really like the CD and Pimlico track, but has taken nicely to the Big Sandy which is like what he is used to back in Japan. He has been training over the Belmont surface and has put in some solid works. He is being raced pretty heavily here, but I think he is a horse that can run forever and he should have the stamina to last here. The slow break shouldn't hurt him too much in such a long race, but he won't want to be too far out of it. If his jock can keep him somewhere in mid pack and not all the way in the back, I think this one has a really nice chance to hit the board at big odds.
11- Exaggerator
The favorite, and for good reason. He hasn't done much wrong. We will see if he can do it on a dry track, although there is some chance of thunderstorms tomorrow so keep an eye on the weather. At likely odds of 4/5 or somewhere near it, I am against. Nothing personal, I singled him in horizontals on Preakness day and I thank him for that, but at the odds here I just don't like the value. He has very little room for error and really has to run a perfect race. He will have to be used early to avoid going very wide into the first turn as the draw did not help him. So how much will be left late. There is definitely enough question marks to take a stand against and that is what I am doing here. If he beats me, hats off to him. He is a great horse either way.
12- Brody's Cause
This is the Romans entry that I prefer. at 20-1, I think he is much better value than Cherry Wine who in my opinion will bounce. He has a healthy pattern and could take a step forward. His sire is Giants Causeway, who I noted earlier has produced progeny that have all gotten better in this race. I think this one will do the same, and at 20-1 he is a great value and a contender. If you are looking for a long shot, this guy and Lani provide great ones IMO. His best running comes from well off the pace, and while he wont want to be too far off the pace, he will likely have to drop back somewhat to avoid a wide 1st turn. He had a work over the track last weekend which gives no indication that he doesnt like the track, so that is another good sign.
13- Creator
Asmussen likes to play spoiler, and he has a good horse here. The outside post is not a good one, but this one runs from far back so the likely strategy is to fall back and go straight to the rail. He developed a lot this year, so a bounce in the Derby was reasonable. He needs to get back to his Arkansas Derby effort and then some to be competitive here. I wouldn't toss him out of exotics but I don't think he is a likely win candidate.
Governor Malibu, Destin, Stravidari are the ones I like with the most favorable trip/running style.
Suddenbreakingnews drew the best out of all the closers and should be able to save ground.
And Lani and Brody's Cause are longshots that I would definitely not exclude.
Some absolutely phenomenal racing on the under card as well tomorrow, so don't miss that. Lots of good opportunities.
:0008
The Belmont is a different animal entirely than the 1st 2 legs of the TC. A distance these horses have never run before, and one they likely won't ever race again.
1.5 miles on the big sandy with its long swooping corners. a very unique track. some horses love the surface, some aren't fond of it. first thing I usually do when playing Belmont is look to see if the horse has run over the track and if they liked it. while this isn't always a deciding factor, I believe it is beneficial if they have already proven to like the track. I'll also look to see if they fired any decent works over the Belmont track. if you look at this, you must remember that Belmont has a separate training track, which is unlike the main racing surface, so be sure to distinguish which surface they trained on.
on to the contenders...
1- Governor Malibu
This guy came in 2nd in the G2 Peter Pan which is a prep for this race. figure wise, it was the best race of his career. If he runs back to that figure here, he is a contender at double digits odds. He has an inside post and a savvy Jock who knows the track. He should be able to save ground if he wants, and that could make some difference. He has a nice stalking running style and doesn't need to be too far back off the pace, which is good for this race. A lot of folks think a deep closer is better at this distance, but that is rarely the case. This trainer brought Tonalist to the Belmont in almost the same fashion. If Governor Malibu takes another step forward he is as likely as any to win, and like I noted earlier, a return to his previous effort last race still makes him a contender. I think this one offers tremendous value for what you get and he is one of my top selections to beat the favorite.
2- Destin
He is maybe the fastest horse in the race. Coming off 5 weeks rest out of the Derby which is right how Pletcher likes it. His sire, Giants Causeway, has seen his progeny take steps forward in this race year after year after year. Keen Ice, Commissioner, Palace Malice, Atigun, Ruler on Ice, Drosselmeyer all took steps forward in the Belmont. If Destin takes a step forward in this race, he is a likely winner. The connections are brilliant, he is regally bred, the Jock is one of the best in the NY circuit, he has won over the track, he has the ideal stalking run style. He gets every single check mark from me. 6-1 is a great price for what you get here as well, but I would think he goes off lower than that. Another one that is a top selection for me.
3- Cherry Wine
Nice horse, and a really nice effort last out in the Preakness to get into the exacta at big odds. But he ran his eyeballs out. It was a big effort, a career effort, and now he is off 3 weeks rest. I read this one to bounce here, although I do like his future over the summer.
4- Suddenbreakingnews
Probably the fastest closer in the race. But he is a closer. He won't be able to drop 20 lengths off the lead and finish with a fury in a 1.5 mile race. He is well bred and should get the distance, but the tactics are going to have to be spot on. He does get HOF jock Mike Smith, but that also hurts some of the value here as some people bet on a jock they are familiar with and Smith is as big a name as you'll get. His best effort makes him very competitive and it is likely he will return to that level here, but the question is whether it will be good enough at this distance with his running style. Still though, for what you get, the morning line odds are good value. He will likely go off under that, but he is still usable, especially in the exotics.
5- Stravidari
A lot like Destin, and in some peoples eyes, better. He caught a sloppy track and a wide trip in the Preakness and still ran respectably. Another Pletcher horse and Pletcher gets his runners to fire more frequently than he does in the Derby and Preakness. He will be on or near the lead and is a big time contender here. I would hope to get better odds but his eye popping wins of 11 and 14 lengths in the past performances will have a lot of people on board. Can't be ignored.
6- Gettysburg
Outclassed here. Will go to the front and try to "Da Tara" the field. Will try to win wire to wire at huge odds. I don't see it, but stranger things have happened.
7- Seeking The Soul
Has never raced longer than a mile and is now going to try 1.5. I don't think he has the stamina and this is a huge step up from racing maidens, which is all he has faced thus far.
8- Forever D'Oro
One that could have a nice future, but like the previous, another one who has only faced maidens thus far. While he has raced longer distances, he would need a big step up in class and number power to be competitive here. He also seems to do his best running from far back.
9- Trojan Nation
Another toss for me. Caught lightning in a bottle getting a muddy track and coming in 2nd in the Wood which propelled him into the Derby based off the points he earned. His Derby attempt was dreadful and although he did get the dreaded 1 post, he still didn't have much of a chance. Has been training out west and would need to step up from his lifetime best effort to be in the picture here. His running style also does him no favors as he too is most comfortable coming from far back.
10- Lani
I really like this horse. If he could actually catch a break, literally....he is off slow almost every race, he would be a much bigger factor. I've heard that he didnt really like the CD and Pimlico track, but has taken nicely to the Big Sandy which is like what he is used to back in Japan. He has been training over the Belmont surface and has put in some solid works. He is being raced pretty heavily here, but I think he is a horse that can run forever and he should have the stamina to last here. The slow break shouldn't hurt him too much in such a long race, but he won't want to be too far out of it. If his jock can keep him somewhere in mid pack and not all the way in the back, I think this one has a really nice chance to hit the board at big odds.
11- Exaggerator
The favorite, and for good reason. He hasn't done much wrong. We will see if he can do it on a dry track, although there is some chance of thunderstorms tomorrow so keep an eye on the weather. At likely odds of 4/5 or somewhere near it, I am against. Nothing personal, I singled him in horizontals on Preakness day and I thank him for that, but at the odds here I just don't like the value. He has very little room for error and really has to run a perfect race. He will have to be used early to avoid going very wide into the first turn as the draw did not help him. So how much will be left late. There is definitely enough question marks to take a stand against and that is what I am doing here. If he beats me, hats off to him. He is a great horse either way.
12- Brody's Cause
This is the Romans entry that I prefer. at 20-1, I think he is much better value than Cherry Wine who in my opinion will bounce. He has a healthy pattern and could take a step forward. His sire is Giants Causeway, who I noted earlier has produced progeny that have all gotten better in this race. I think this one will do the same, and at 20-1 he is a great value and a contender. If you are looking for a long shot, this guy and Lani provide great ones IMO. His best running comes from well off the pace, and while he wont want to be too far off the pace, he will likely have to drop back somewhat to avoid a wide 1st turn. He had a work over the track last weekend which gives no indication that he doesnt like the track, so that is another good sign.
13- Creator
Asmussen likes to play spoiler, and he has a good horse here. The outside post is not a good one, but this one runs from far back so the likely strategy is to fall back and go straight to the rail. He developed a lot this year, so a bounce in the Derby was reasonable. He needs to get back to his Arkansas Derby effort and then some to be competitive here. I wouldn't toss him out of exotics but I don't think he is a likely win candidate.
Governor Malibu, Destin, Stravidari are the ones I like with the most favorable trip/running style.
Suddenbreakingnews drew the best out of all the closers and should be able to save ground.
And Lani and Brody's Cause are longshots that I would definitely not exclude.
Some absolutely phenomenal racing on the under card as well tomorrow, so don't miss that. Lots of good opportunities.
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