World Cup 2018

[BASON]

Yes, I know it is very early, but I like to take the time during the break (I break when Germany breaks) to look at the World Cup draw to see if there are any advance lines to win the group that strike me. I will go through Group by Group over the next couple weeks with some initial thoughts/predictions for each. I do this every Cup, but this will be the first time that I have posted it anywhere.

I also will take a look at the advance match lines and see if anything strikes me now. If I see a match worth playing now I will note it in the group analysis. I am not a fan of betting this far in advance, however, the WC is the exception since we can get attractive lines that I am confident will move against us.

Overall, I would say this may be the most balanced draw I have ever seen. There is no clear cut "group of death" and there are many very competitive groups, which should make for some tight group play.

Please feel free to comment or ask questions as we go, but as always, please keep it positive!

 

[BASON]

Still working on most of the groups but we can start with Group A as it is likely the easiest to dissect.

GROUP A
Russia
Uruguay
Egypt
Saudi Arabia

This group sucks! Russia gets a massive break as the home team and a great draw but they are also one of the worst teams in the tournament. The opening game against Saudi Arabia may be one of the worst opening matches of all time. Uruguay and Egypt have some world class players and likely battle for the top spots here. I know Russia will be a popular pick to move on and I am sure calls will go there way, but I do not like this team. There has been a lot of changes over the last couple years as they get rid of older players, but this team has not come together yet. If Salah is in top form for Egypt I think they can beat Russia and the Saudis. Uruguay can be very unpredictable (hell, you can say that about any south american team), but they have the best talent in the group. Suarez and Cavani are formidable for any team to stop. If they play to their ability I expect Uruguay to win this group. At Even money I think it is a decent play. I think Egypt will slip into the 2nd spot here especially if they can draw Uruguay in the first game.

I will be considering a draw play in the Uruguay/Egypt first round match, but I will be making a play on the Under 2.5 -130 as I could see this moving to 2. Neither team can afford to lose this game to move on (I know this sounds obvious but it is a key capping factor especially when the two best teams play in the first game since a loss then puts a lot of pressure on that team to win the next two games), but it is even more important for Egypt to try to get a point here, so I expect them to fully pack it in and play for a draw. Even if Uruguay breaks through I expect them to play it tight as goal differential could definitely come into play in this group.

Overall this is the weakest group and will not offer many exciting games, but it remains intriguing since there are not two clear cut choices to move on.

Winner: Uruguay
Second: Egypt
Early Play: Uruguay/Egypt Un 2.5 -130

 

[BASON]

GROUP B
Spain
Portugal
Morocco
Iran

I think this group is more interesting than many people think. Everyone is going to assume that Spain and Portugal will move on. If you followed me over the years, you will know that I am not a huge fan of this Portugal team. Yes, they have Ronaldo and yes, they miraculously won Euro, but this is a team that has trouble scoring. That can create problems against good defensive teams which Morocco and Iran are. While these two team do not have the talent that Portugal has they have the ability to draw them for sure. What makes the group even more interesting is that Spain and Portugal play in the opening match of the group. Both are likely confident that can get points against the other two teams so I think they will be very conservative in this game. This also makes the other opening match very important as one team will likely have to win to have hopes of advancing. If Spain and Portugal draw, or if Spain wins, and Morocco beats Iran this could get very interesting since Portugal plays Morocco in the second match. The opening match is very important for Portugal not to lose in my opinion.

I think this group will produce some low scoring games and be tighter than most think. I am very tempted to take Morocco over Portugal to advance but Portugal tends to find ways to advance.

Winner: Spain
Second: Portugal
Early Play: Spain/Portugal Un 2.5 -135. Very surprised to see a 2.5 on this game. Will be shocked if it survives. It will move to 2 as we get closer. Just do not see 3 goals in this game. This is worth early money to me as I think it is very important for Portugal not to lose which means they will not open up much at all except on the counter.

 

[Subcloser]

Great write up's Bason...I will be trailing when the time comesopcorn2

 

[BASON]

GROUP C
France
Denmark
Peru
Australia

France got a very easy draw here in my opinion. This team is completely loaded. When you sit down and look at the roster it is really hard to believe how much talent is on this team. Question is, can they play together as a team for the whole tournament. This team is subject to lapses in play and can play down to its competition, but on paper, I think they are the most talented team in the world. Not only is this a great draw for them, they also get Denmark in the 3rd game after two likely wins. France should win this group easily. The real intrigue is for second. While I like the way Australia plays, I don't given them a chance here, so it is between Denmark and Peru who happen to play the first game. That game will be very important. I also think Denmark gets a bit of an edge because they play France in the last game and they might not be as focused if they win the first two. So this makes Peru's game against Denmark very important for them. They have to get at least a draw in that game. Results against Australia will be key since I think goal differential will likely decide second place.

The opening game of Peru/Denmark is key to this group. I think a draw and under bets have to be considered especially with a total of 2.5. I am not a big fan of betting teams to win the group, but France at -300 looks good to me if you do not mind laying some juice.

Winner: France
Second: Peru, sentimental choice as I think it is a coin toss with Denmark
Early Play: Denmark/Peru Un 2.5 -135. Consider -300 on France to win the group.

 

[BASON]

GROUP E (D is to come)
Brazil
Switzerland
Serbia
Croatia

Not much intrigue for me in this group. Brazil is by far the most talented team in the group. Switzerland always carries a high FIFA ranking, but they do not have the overall talent that the top teams have. Brazil does play Switzerland in the opening game which is probably the most intrigue in the group, but I think the Swiss would have to win to have any chance to win the group because they will not be able to match Brazil's goal differential in the other games. Costa Rica could be a popular upset pick given their previous performance, but I do not see it this time around.

Winner: Brazil
Second: Switzerland
Early Plays: Maybe Brazil at -350 to win the group, but you might as well bet them at -285 over the Swiss in the first game of the group.