World Cup of Golf

[Ian]

A bit early but myself and Clive have been trying to nick a bit of early value. Two firms ahve priced up Luvbet (1/4 4) and Sports.com (win only)
Clive managed to get 40/1 Aus with luvbet - a big price for the pairing of Scott and Baddeley - still 40's at Sports.com
Fiji seem overpriced at 66/1 Luvbet as Vijay is partnered by Chand - already a winner on the Japanese tour this year and 2 top 10's in his last 2 events

 

[Ian]

Adding one more team - the home nation Japan - Argentina managed a close 2nd to the US on home soil last year and I expect Japan to do the same, Izawa has won on this course in 2000 and whilst disappointing last week his form before was impeccable. Maruyama should be a solid backup 20/1 Stan James (1/4 4)

 

[nomad]

Ian,

As you've already backed both Australia and Japan to win the cup I'm wondering if you had seen the individual prices Eurobet have?

1/4 odds, 4 places and only over 2 rounds.

Baddeley 50-1
Maruyama 40-1
Izawa 28-1
Scott 28-1

 

[Stanley]

Preview & outright plays:

This event must be gaining in popularity. Last year, Woods and Duval were ranked #1 and #3 in the world rankings, while the next highest-ranked player was Thomas Bjorn, ranked #19 and the next cumulative ranking after the US team (4) was Spain at 61. This year, eight of the top-12 in the world rankings are in Japan for the last WGC event of the year. The United States team will be looking for a hat-trick of victories this week. Two years ago Woods won this event on behalf of the US team despite Mark O'Meara and last year he teamed up with Duval in the new format of alternating rounds of foursomes and fourballs to ease to victory over Argentina, the home nation.

They play on the Gotemba course at The Taiheiyo Club, which has hosted Sumitomo VISA Taiheiyo Masters since 1997. Together with the Dunlop Phoenix Tournament and the Casio World Open, these events form the International section of the Japan Tour schedule and feature a host of international former winners. The course was ranked second in the Japanese section of the 1999 "Best Courses in 100 Countries" selected by US Golf Digest magazine. It is expected to play very tight, while the greens have been likened to those at the Augusta National for both quality and speed.

There are two outright selections this week, though neither at particularly large odds. They are the United States and Japan. Duval may have faltered at times last week, but coming straight off the Tour Championship, it was a fine performance to win. The main worry with Woods had been his back, but he showed few signs of discomfort in China over the weekend and they look justifiably heavy favorites. The competition may be stronger this year, but they are by far the best pairing and they have enough experience of playing together as well. Surrey did go 13/8 yesterday, but Simon Bold still offer an attractive price when many books have them odds on.

The second selection is the Japan team, but only in the 'w/o USA' market. Argentina showed the benefits of home support and conditions when the ran a close second to Woods & Duval last year and there is every reason to expect the Japanese pairing to repeat the performance. Izawa only finished 12th in the Dunlop Phoenix last week, but he had won four of his previous six Japan Tour starts, including the Sumitomo VISA Taiheiyo Masters held on this course two months ago. He also won that event on this course last year, so there can be little doubt that the setup favors his game. Maruyama finished 12th in the 1999 event, but he had been 2nd going into the final round, so again there is support for the Japan team on this course. With their main rivals for 2nd place having at least one player who played in the weather-affected Volvo Masters in Europe at the weekend, the home team look the best rivals to the US team.

Outright plays:

United States to win 6/4 @ Simon Bold [2 units]
Japan to win 8/1 @ Centrebet [w/o US market]

 

[Ian]

Slightly confused - Camelot are offering 72 hole matchups between players - how are they going to settle these? I thought the event was 2 rounds of 4 balls and 2 of better balls so how can they determine a winner?!?!
Or have I got this wrong?

 

[Stanley]

I thought it very strange as well. I also thought the Eurobet offering was rather unworkable. How would you grade a player if he picks up his ball on a hole because his partner has already secured the birdie/par/whatever?

These line-makers do play golf don't they?

 

[Clive]

I assume Eurobet will pay on cumulative scores from two rounds...strangely, their prices have disappeared!

There was plenty of value around last week, but books are pretty uniform now.

Quite happy with Ireland (20/1), Japan (20/1), Aus (40/1)and 33/1 Arg...should manage to squeeze at least one into the frame from that lot!

 

[Stanley]

Just one 72-hole play at the moment:

Holland to beat Malaysia -145 @ Five Dimes [3 units]
Fully expect the Malaysian pairing to go one worse than last year and finish last. They managed to qualify for this event by finishing in the top-six in the Davidoff Nations Cup, but that event was held at the Royal Selangor Golf Club in Malaysia. Playing in Japan will be a different affair. Neither player has played well outside Malaysia before now: Chia has never secured a top-20 finish on the Davidoff Tour and Gunasegaran has just one top-10 to his name on this Tour. The pairing of Lafeber and Derksen will struggle to finish in the top half of the table, but they have plenty enough experience to beat the Malaysians. As a means of comparison between the quality of players, while Chia and Gunasegaran have had no success on the Davidoff Tour, Lafeber finished 7th in the Malaysian Open and 3rd in Singapore Masters earlier this year, the two European and Davidoff Tour co-sanctioned events.

 

[Stanley]

Adding:

Canada to beat England -111 @ BetInternet [2 units]
Expecting a good week from the Canadian team and a repeat of their top-10 finish last year. Weir again confirmed his progression as a player by taking the PGA Tour Championship two weeks ago and will find a compatible partner in Leggatt. He may have struggled in the scramble to retain his PGA Tour card (he failed), but he was picked by Weir as they have known each other for a long time through the Canadian Tour and can combine their left hand/right hand swings to special effect in the foursomes to best manage the course. Last year the English team finished 16th, with Poulter and Casey having both played at Montecastillo on Sunday, they will be hard pressed to better that performance

Canada to beat Scotland -110 @ Sports.com
Both the Scots played in Montecastillo as well and with Coltart struggling with his game at the moment, they will also struggle to make it into the top-10. They will miss Paul Lawrie who has a proven record internationally

Fiji to beat France -115 @ Five Dimes
I may be wrong about the Montecastillo effect, but it was a particularly grueling event because of the weather and to fly to Japan and tee it up four days later suffering from jetlag and the loss of nine hours via the differences in the time zones, it just seems to much to ask these players to play to the best of their abilities. Levet and Jacquelin did play in the Volvo Masters and neither have played particularly well for some time. It is therefore easy to side with a world-class player such as Singh and Chand who is based on the Japan Tour, having won once this season and finished in the top-10 in the two events prior to the Dunlop Phoenix. The fact that Chand used to be Singh's caddy should also enable them to work well as a team

Paraguay to beat Zimbabwe +100 @ Five Dimes
Once again, the Montecastillo factor. Johnstone gave his best performance for months in finishing 7th last week - he had had just one other top-40 finish since March - but McNulty was familiarly uncompetitive. He has failed to gain a single top-20 finish outside South Africa this season. With their age, the Montecastillo effect should be enhanced and this should be an easy win for the Francos. For all that Argentina caught the headlines for pushing the US team hard last year, it was the Paraguayans who finished 3rd

 

[Stanley]

Mid-point update:

No cut, of course, but a generally favorable situation after 36 holes. May have overplayed the Montecastillo effect - New Zealand, Scotland, Denmark and France are surprising early contenders - though David Smail has been playing well in Japan recently and the tiredness factor should become more important as the week progresses. The standings after 36 holes: Holland/Malaysia 4 up; Canada/England 2 up; Canada/Scotland 2 down; Fiji/France all square; Paraguay/Zimbabwe all square. The outrights are in decent shape with the Japan team 2nd behind New Zealand and the US team a shot further back in 4th place.

 

[nomad]

I must be suffering from brain fade, I'm sure it was only last year that I contacted one of the firms regarding the impossiblity to grade their individual prices on the world cup.

Anyway, no surprises that Eurobet refunded all stakes ?!

Backed Smail last week at 50-1 in the Phoenix but I just can't see him holding it together in a final round of foursomes with world class golfers breathing down his neck.

I think Sporting Odds are probably more on the mark than the other firms in making USA favourite with 2 rounds to go. Anyone looking for a decent interest for the last couple of days would do worse than looking at Argentina at 33-1 (Blue Square, Bet Direct).

Looking really good for you at the moment Stan, could do with Japan adding to the home winners record myself (20/1 Stan James) as I've done my dough on the Aussie PGA.

You gotta love this game, bought Laycock on Sporting's 50/30/20/10 index after the 1st round at 9 and after 11 holes in round 2 he's looking very handily placed with the easy par 5 3rd to come and then he goes par/d.bogey/bogey to disappear out of sight.

Played The Vines yesterday (+9) finally sinking some putts, sadly don't know any members over at Lake Karrinyup so will only be able to walk the course nearer the time for the Johnnie Walker.



[This message has been edited by nomad (edited 11-16-2001).]

 

[Stanley]

Final update: 2-2-1 and +0.78 units

Good position after 36 holes; not so after 72! Holland beat Malaysia by three shots and Canada beat Scotland by two, but they lost to England by one and Paraguay finished three behind Zimbabwe. In the remaining play, Fiji tied with France. Small profit on the matchup plays with the 3-unit play winning, but the Montecastillo was obviously overplayed.

Update on outright plays: 0-2 and -3.00 units

The US team lost in a four-way playoff after eagling the final hole - as the winners South Africa did - to join the clubhouse leaders. The late charge proved fruitless, but it was more than the Japanese team managed. They have looked good all week, but could only shoot level-par in the last round and fell from 2nd to 11th.

WGC ytd
Matchups/props: 14-15; -6.73 units
Outright plays: 1-7; -5.37 units