World Cup Prop

[flapjack]

I'm loading up on this "long shot"

Miraslav Klose to be top goal scorer 20 to 1.

This seems like an unreal value to me. He's playing at home for a team that will surely make a run to the late stages and opens in a group where they should dominate. In the '02 WC Klose was tied for #2 in goals scored with 5 at age 23. That same year he managed to score 9 goals in 31 starts domestically. Now, he's 27 - in his prime, and is coming off a season where he put in an unreal 24 goals in 23 games domestically and another 4 in 9 Champs league games and he's 20 to 1? Plus - Rooney all but out, Shev - injured and a ?, Ronaldo has declined, France can't seem to score recently, the Dutch and Argentinians got put in a biitch of a group where goals will be few and far between.

100 to win 2000 on Klose.

 

[Eugenius7]

Agreed, great value there!!!

Shevchenko will definetely play and I will be there to watch him!!!

 

[IX_Bender]

Took it a little further and have Klose -.5

He scored again this past weekend and is worth the longshot even with a team that has little to no chance of making it to the finals - IMO.

 

[flapjack]

How does that work with Klose -.5? Does that mean he has to win the scoring title outright and not tie it? Did you get even higher odds?

I'm with you on Klose of course, but I do disagree with you about Germanys chances. I think they got a pretty good shot to get to the final game. They seem to be a bit of a mess right now, but you can never overestimate the advantage of hosting. 33% of the time, the host team has won the World Cup - and that includes alot of hosts with no real chance like Jap/Korea, USA, Mexico, etc bringing the average down to 33%. Also, I read a stat that the home team has played an average of (I believe) 3 games more than the # of games they have traditionally averaged. I'm not sure there is a major team sport around where home field is a bigger advantage. Given Germany's track record in the WC, the past hosts' track record, an amazingly weak group, S American teams struggling in European World Cup's (and vice versa), and I think they got as good a shot as anyone not named Brazil - plus assuming they both win their groups, Germany wouldn't face Brazil to the final game.

Plus, remember everyone wrote off Germany before the last WC and they made it to the final.

That being said, I just can't pull the trigger on Germany +650 to win it. But, if Germany wins it all, I gotta believe that will bode well our Klose to win the scoring title bets.

 

[Mr.]

willhill has him @ 28-1......can even each way him top 4 for 1/4 the odds

 

[IX_Bender]

How does that work with Klose -.5? Does that mean he has to win the scoring title outright and not tie it? Did you get even higher odds?

Exactly, outright is the only way to win. 28/1.

That being said, I just can't pull the trigger on Germany +650 to win it. But, if Germany wins it all, I gotta believe that will bode well our Klose to win the scoring title bets.

I believe they have too much inexperience starting. Sure, there are the veteran superstars and the giant dinosaur goalie Kahn (who will backup). My odds on the home team are +1500. Obviously, the further the team goes the better our chances.

EDIT::: I doubt you could find +1500, but to clarify, those are my odds on Germany to win the Cup. 800-1000 are available. Conversely, my mathematical numbers rate Sweden at a 3300 chance to win. Therefore any bet above and beyond that number (40-1 generally available) would be considered a value bet.

 

[flapjack]

+1500 for Germany? My book only has +650. Seems like soccer wagers - odds and whats offered vary pretty wildly from book to book. I have two books I use - one is awful for soccer, one is OK. Might have to look at windhill.

 

[moe777]

gl flap,,if you have watched germany the last year and a hf,their is no way you can put $$ on them to win it..but u never know ,greece did win the euro cup and germany is home,from what ive seen u cant bet on them.

 

[flapjack]

I know Germany have looked like hell, but I'd be astonished if they dont at least make a run to the quarterfinals. Lehman in goal full time will help for sure. I won't back them to win it all unless I could find them at +1000 or higher, but won't be suprised if they are in the mix at the end.

I'll be in Germany for the group stage, counting down the days. I can't wait to start looking at and capping those lines.

 

[Eugenius7]

Germany will NOT win the World Cup...their team just isn't good enough, I think it's Brazil's tournament to lose, to be honest with you...

Final: Brazil - Ukraine 2-0 :scared

 

[flapjack]

Eugenius, on a neutral pitch, I'd agree. But Germany will be far from neutral.

As far as Ukraine, Shevchenko is one of my favorite players, but one man does not make a team. They have a great draw - I could see them getting past either France or Switzerland in the round of 16, but no way they get past either Brazil or Italy in the quarters, IMHO.

 

[Eugenius7]

Agreed, man!!!

It was just a wishful thinking on my part, Ukraine is my team and will be there for all their games...which games do you plan to attend?

Side note, I actually played against Shevchenko when I was 11-12 years old and even then everyone knew this guy is gonna be special...he is going to be playing for Chelsea next year and it will be a huge challenge for him in the Premiership, but I fell that if you can score in Italy you can score anywhere...

Not sure if you saw CL final game...great game and I don't think the best team won today...

 

[flapjack]

Great game today, I agree Arsenal outplayed them given the 10 on 11. I couldnt pull the trigger on anything major, but did hit a small one on the over, and then hit this bigtime $15 long shot:

5/17/2006
TNT
[29107] ARSENAL HT / BARCELONA FT ML+2500

WIN
Amt: 375.00

Just dumb luck. I put 15 on Arsenal HT/Draw FT as well.


My path in Germany takes me to:
Brazil-Australia in Munich
England-Sweden in Cologne
Argentina-Netherlands in Frankfurt (or Mexico-Portugal in Gelsen.)
Brazil-Japan in Dortmund

There's four of us and we have no tickets as of yet - working alot of sources, but no success yet, but in the end it does not really matter. All the cities will be going off and be great places to watch the games. Our side trips to Amsterdam and Prague will insure that I will be a train wreck by the time I return to the US. Counting down the days at this point You going?

 

[Eugenius7]

:scared Wow, nice hit on that HT/FT bet...

Yes, 3 of us are going...we already got tickets to 3 Ukraine games, vs. Spain in Leipsig, vs. Tunisia in Hamburg and vs. Saudi Arabia in Berlin...i am very excited and counting the days for sure...side trips between games will be to Strasbourg, France and Vienna, Austria as I have friends that live there...

Yeah, I am sure you'll have a blast in Amsterdam and especially in Prague...nothing like stripclubs in Prague :scared

 

[moe777]

ukraine is a nice sleeper eugene...my sleeper right now is czech republic,they are a solid club,and i do like the way they play.+1300 to reach the final.does anybody know if koller is 100% for years i thought he was german ,but this guy is underated he real good but hes coming off a knee injury ,i dont know his status.

 

[moe777]

top goal scorer prop

top goal scorer prop

a couple that i like..adriano +1350 ,ibrahimovic +6000 and trying to find a line for koller of the checks but dont like the group hes in...adriono will probably play in alot of games so hes a good a solid pick with ronaldino feeding him,,ibrahimovic is solid and by odds wise trinadad and tobago is the worst team in the cup and their in the same group as sweden,if sweeden can make some kind of run and ibrahimovic scores3 or 4 goals vs trinadad this is a nice value bet at +6000,im going to put 150 on this one and hope for a 9000 payout.

 

[Eugenius7]

PRAGUE, May 15 (Reuters) - Czech Republic coach Karel Brueckner included several injured players in his 23-man World Cup squad on Monday.


His biggest concern is influential midfielder Vladimir Smicer, who has a torn tendon in his leg but is still hoping to be fit for the Czechs' opener against the United States on June 12.


Striker Vratislav Lokvenc is recovering from a serious knee injury and is not fully fit, while key defender Zdenek Grygera of Ajax Amsterdam is also struggling with an injury.

Striker Jan Koller appears to be on course to play after a knee injury last September which kept him on the sidelines for months.

The towering striker headed home twice at the weekend for Borussia Dortmund in a 3-3 draw with Bundesliga champions Bayern Munich, his first full 90 minutes of play since surgery.

 

[flapjack]

Ibra at +6000 is a steal in my opinion, Moe. My book has him at +3500. I've got Klose pretty big, but looking to add a few more to the mix. May look into a book that has Top four bets. I don't think my book has the best odds so I'd love to get some feedback on what anybody else is seeing as far as odds on the following:

Pauleta +2500 - Tremendous goal scorer, weak group - Iran and Angola. I think Portugal is a strong dark horse - Scolari is a great coach, Euro runner ups.

Messi +3500 - I got this Pele circa 1958 vibe about this guy.

Toni +1800 - He's absolutely killling it right now. He's my #2 pick behind Klose. I think (hope) Italy has learned their leasons from recent performances and will be more offensive. More like their 4-1 thrashing of Germany a few months ago, less like their limp-wristed performances in the last Euro and WC.

Ibra at +6000 if I can find it.

Odds/Socres I don't like:
Shev +1800 - Gotta love him, but I just can't pull the trigger on a team I dont think will get past the final 16, although personally I'd love to see him play late into the tourney. Trez & Henry - Despite having 2 of the best strickers in the world, France can't seem to score a goal to save their lives. Early prediction: The Swiss-France game will be 0-0. Holland & Arg players (Messi excluded) - Their group will be brutal. Besides facing each other, they get a dangerous Ivory Coast team and an all out defensive/physical Serbia who gave up 1 goal in all of qualifying. Brazil - Too many goal scores might equal no main man baggin' all the goals and bad odds on the Ronaldo, Ronaldinho. If I took one it would be Adriano - cause of the odds are best on him. But he had an awful year at Inter. Owen - I really wanted to take him after Rooney went down but +800 is not even remotely appealing.

 

[KIKIN06]

I disagree, im on RONALDO +500 or ADRIANO +700 , Germany wont go all the way thru the final. I guess Brasil has a better team that will provide RONALDO and ADRIANO a lot of balls to make some goals thus they will go to the final thats for sure, so more games = more chances to score.

 

[s_dooley24]

ukraine is a nice sleeper eugene...my sleeper right now is czech republic,they are a solid club,and i do like the way they play.+1300 to reach the final.does anybody know if koller is 100% for years i thought he was german ,but this guy is underated he real good but hes coming off a knee injury ,i dont know his status.

Moe do you like Ukraine to win Group H
3030 Ukraine +228 ??