WORLD CUP SOCCER TOTALS (FIRST ROUND)
I am always wary of identifying new betting angles and touting them as gospel, when the fact is -- most are untested and unproven. I almost always do my best to back up what I submit with data from past seasons or recent games. But there is sometimes a chance that results are an aberration of normalcy. As all of you who read this page daily are aware, I do a lot of experimenting and speculation. I like to share interesting new ideas with readers so that perhaps others will catch on and improve the system, or dispel it as irrelevant. The important thing is to constantly keep searching for new angles and methods to win.
With that said, I believe there may be value in betting the OVERS in all of the first round World Cup games. I believe this for several reasons. First, it's a contrarian idea. The public perceives soccer as a low-scoring sport, where there are many 1-0 games. This is certainly true. And for this reason, the totals on these games are almost without exception -- "2.5" goals.
I have uncovered an interesting trend where World Cup games (first round) have increased in the number of goals scored. This is based on 108 trials of all the first round games played since 1990. This trend began after the 1990 World Cup, which was rightly criticized by fans for being dull and defensive-oriented. In 1994, teams opened up the scoring a bit. By 1998, scoring in the first round increased by over a half goal (that may not sound like much, but it represents a 20 percent increase in scoring per game). This upwards trend in scoring does not seem to have been addressed by oddsmakers yet, as virtually off of the totals in 2002 games remain at "2.5" What's even better, is that OVERS are listed at EVEN money or better (no vig).
Here's a closer look at the trend:
FIRST GAME?..means the first game played by each team
ALL FIRST ROUND GAMES?.means the first three games played by each team in the brackets A-F
1990
FIRST GAME: 2.41 goals per game
ALL FIRST ROUND GAMES: 2.25 goals per game
1994
FIRST GAME: 2.41 goals per game
ALL FIRST ROUND GAMES: 2.61 goals per game
1998
FIRST GAME: 2.41 goals per game
ALL FIRST ROUND GAMES: 2.91 goals per game
2002
???
EXPLANATION OF TREND: What's interesting is that the exact same number of goals have been scored the first game the past three World Cups (29). However, first round games went 7-5 (7 OVERS and 5 UNDERS) in 1998, after going 6-6 in 1994 and just 3-9 in 1990. So, we see an upwards trend in scoring for the first game, when contrasted against the total.
This upward scoring trend is even more pronounced in Games Two and Three (first round games). Scoring has increased in these games by .66 a goal since 1990 (2.25 goals per game up to 2.91 goals per game) Lest anyone think the numbers are skewed by a couple of high scoring games, it should be noted that there was only one 7 goal game and one 5 goal game in 1998. All other games were 4 goals or less. So, the fact that OVERS went 15-9 should be noted as a notable upwards trend. That means OVERS went 22-14 overall in all first round games in 1998, up from 18-18 in 1994 and 12-24 in 1990. Total goals scored has gone from 83 in 1990, to 91 in 1994, to 99 in 1998.
Of course, since there are just 36 first round games played per World Cup, the data is still suspect (not enough trials to be statistically convincing). However, I will go out on a limb and theorize that games are becoming higher-scoring for a couple of reasons. (1) Athletes are faster and better conditioned, favoring more offense. (2) Coaches and fans seek more creative styles of play. The European clubs in particular have gotten away from dull, defensive oriented soccer (an overstament, but a fact), and (3) There is a better caliber of teams of teams overall now -- especially out of Africa and Asia -- this means the stronger teams can no longer build a 1-0 or 2-0 lead and lapse into a defensive shell.
See World Cup report below for plays you might consider for this weekend's games. I also strongly recommend checking the Message Forum regularly where some of the top handicappers at MadJacks will be posting their plays and analysis. These plays come in from all over the world. So, use the information wisely.
I am always wary of identifying new betting angles and touting them as gospel, when the fact is -- most are untested and unproven. I almost always do my best to back up what I submit with data from past seasons or recent games. But there is sometimes a chance that results are an aberration of normalcy. As all of you who read this page daily are aware, I do a lot of experimenting and speculation. I like to share interesting new ideas with readers so that perhaps others will catch on and improve the system, or dispel it as irrelevant. The important thing is to constantly keep searching for new angles and methods to win.
With that said, I believe there may be value in betting the OVERS in all of the first round World Cup games. I believe this for several reasons. First, it's a contrarian idea. The public perceives soccer as a low-scoring sport, where there are many 1-0 games. This is certainly true. And for this reason, the totals on these games are almost without exception -- "2.5" goals.
I have uncovered an interesting trend where World Cup games (first round) have increased in the number of goals scored. This is based on 108 trials of all the first round games played since 1990. This trend began after the 1990 World Cup, which was rightly criticized by fans for being dull and defensive-oriented. In 1994, teams opened up the scoring a bit. By 1998, scoring in the first round increased by over a half goal (that may not sound like much, but it represents a 20 percent increase in scoring per game). This upwards trend in scoring does not seem to have been addressed by oddsmakers yet, as virtually off of the totals in 2002 games remain at "2.5" What's even better, is that OVERS are listed at EVEN money or better (no vig).
Here's a closer look at the trend:
FIRST GAME?..means the first game played by each team
ALL FIRST ROUND GAMES?.means the first three games played by each team in the brackets A-F
1990
FIRST GAME: 2.41 goals per game
ALL FIRST ROUND GAMES: 2.25 goals per game
1994
FIRST GAME: 2.41 goals per game
ALL FIRST ROUND GAMES: 2.61 goals per game
1998
FIRST GAME: 2.41 goals per game
ALL FIRST ROUND GAMES: 2.91 goals per game
2002
???
EXPLANATION OF TREND: What's interesting is that the exact same number of goals have been scored the first game the past three World Cups (29). However, first round games went 7-5 (7 OVERS and 5 UNDERS) in 1998, after going 6-6 in 1994 and just 3-9 in 1990. So, we see an upwards trend in scoring for the first game, when contrasted against the total.
This upward scoring trend is even more pronounced in Games Two and Three (first round games). Scoring has increased in these games by .66 a goal since 1990 (2.25 goals per game up to 2.91 goals per game) Lest anyone think the numbers are skewed by a couple of high scoring games, it should be noted that there was only one 7 goal game and one 5 goal game in 1998. All other games were 4 goals or less. So, the fact that OVERS went 15-9 should be noted as a notable upwards trend. That means OVERS went 22-14 overall in all first round games in 1998, up from 18-18 in 1994 and 12-24 in 1990. Total goals scored has gone from 83 in 1990, to 91 in 1994, to 99 in 1998.
Of course, since there are just 36 first round games played per World Cup, the data is still suspect (not enough trials to be statistically convincing). However, I will go out on a limb and theorize that games are becoming higher-scoring for a couple of reasons. (1) Athletes are faster and better conditioned, favoring more offense. (2) Coaches and fans seek more creative styles of play. The European clubs in particular have gotten away from dull, defensive oriented soccer (an overstament, but a fact), and (3) There is a better caliber of teams of teams overall now -- especially out of Africa and Asia -- this means the stronger teams can no longer build a 1-0 or 2-0 lead and lapse into a defensive shell.
See World Cup report below for plays you might consider for this weekend's games. I also strongly recommend checking the Message Forum regularly where some of the top handicappers at MadJacks will be posting their plays and analysis. These plays come in from all over the world. So, use the information wisely.
