Hi team!
Firstly, thanks to everyone who has contributed in the 100 posts for the initial thread....fantastic
Esp to TTM$ and Bologna3nil, and nostromo....
Tried to use my week off work to some effect apart from earning brownie points around the house...
Have collated a pile of stats over the past 4 World Cups and tried to work them into categories that will help us punting-wise.
I'm hoping someone of a much stronger mathematical bent than me (eg my 6-year-old son!) may be able to work their magic on these figures to bring a little more in-depth analysis than I can provide - I realise it's hard when you don't know the specific prices for the games involved...
However, I felt there were some points worth noting that I'll mention briefly now and we can all hopefully chew the fat on.
Goalscoring has been on the up since the awfully dull and defensive 1990 World Cup. I expect to see the over/under 2.5 goals in many matches be priced at approx -135 Over maybe?? given the scoring average over the last two tournaments.
There's certainly plenty of ammunition here in these figures for hedging the win and draw for the underdogs. Has been a point of discussion before; would love to here plenty more on this theory.
Further ammo on the African teams. Seem to have value as underdogs again, although I haven't checked prices for a week. The Over has been very profitable in the last two Cups.
Much more to follow; hope this helps; lets get it cracking ...
Since 1986 World Cup:
Favourite Win: 117 (55.45%)
Underdog Win: 32 (15.17%)
Draw: 62 (29.38%)
Underdog Win/Draw: 44.55% or +230 price for both options for a profit??
Second stage:
FW: 31 (53.44%)
UW: 10 (17.24%)
Draw: 17 (29.31%)
Underdog Win/Draw: 46.55% or +215 price for both options for a profit??
FW/Over: 61 (28.91%)
FW/Under: 56 (26.54%)
D/Ov: 12 (5.69%)
D/Un: 50 (23.70%)
UW/Ov: 22 (10.43%)
UW/Un: 10 (4.74%)
Breaking that down into...
1st Rd/Group play:
FW/Ov: 45 (29.20%)
FW/Un: 42 (27.30%)
D/Ov: 10 (6.50%)
D/Un: 35 (22.70%)
UW/Ov: 15 (9.70%)
UW/Un: 7 (4.50%)
2nd Round onwards:
FW/Ov: 16 (28.07%)
FW/Un: 14 (24.56%)
D/Ov: 2 (3.51%)
D/Un: 15 (26.32%)
UW/Ov: 7 (12.29%)
UW/Un: 3 (5.26%)
African Teams:
Win: 8 (19.51%)
Draw: 15 (36.56%)
Loss: 18 (43.90%)
The win/draw hedge at 56.07% certainly has plenty of appeal; given that the African sides would have been underdogs for the vast majority of these encounters.
Broken down into 86/90 results and 94/98:
(Have done this due to the increased size of the competition/more qualifying sports to CAF)
86/90:
Win: 3 (20%)
Draw: 7 (46.70%)
Loss: 5 (33.30%)
Over: 4
Under: 10
90/94:
Win: 5 (19.51%)
Draw: 8 (30.77%)
Loss: 13 (50%)
Over: 16
Under: 10
African sides to make 2nd rd since '86:
86: Morocco (L 1-0 v W Germany 2nd rd)
90: Cameroon (W 2-1 v Colombia, D 1-1 v England (lost on pens))
94: Nigeria* (D 1-1 v Italy (lost on pens))
98: Nigeria (L 4-1 v Denmark)
* = won group
Firstly, thanks to everyone who has contributed in the 100 posts for the initial thread....fantastic
Esp to TTM$ and Bologna3nil, and nostromo....
Tried to use my week off work to some effect apart from earning brownie points around the house...
Have collated a pile of stats over the past 4 World Cups and tried to work them into categories that will help us punting-wise.
I'm hoping someone of a much stronger mathematical bent than me (eg my 6-year-old son!) may be able to work their magic on these figures to bring a little more in-depth analysis than I can provide - I realise it's hard when you don't know the specific prices for the games involved...
However, I felt there were some points worth noting that I'll mention briefly now and we can all hopefully chew the fat on.
Goalscoring has been on the up since the awfully dull and defensive 1990 World Cup. I expect to see the over/under 2.5 goals in many matches be priced at approx -135 Over maybe?? given the scoring average over the last two tournaments.
There's certainly plenty of ammunition here in these figures for hedging the win and draw for the underdogs. Has been a point of discussion before; would love to here plenty more on this theory.
Further ammo on the African teams. Seem to have value as underdogs again, although I haven't checked prices for a week. The Over has been very profitable in the last two Cups.
Much more to follow; hope this helps; lets get it cracking ...
Since 1986 World Cup:
Favourite Win: 117 (55.45%)
Underdog Win: 32 (15.17%)
Draw: 62 (29.38%)
Underdog Win/Draw: 44.55% or +230 price for both options for a profit??
Second stage:
FW: 31 (53.44%)
UW: 10 (17.24%)
Draw: 17 (29.31%)
Underdog Win/Draw: 46.55% or +215 price for both options for a profit??
FW/Over: 61 (28.91%)
FW/Under: 56 (26.54%)
D/Ov: 12 (5.69%)
D/Un: 50 (23.70%)
UW/Ov: 22 (10.43%)
UW/Un: 10 (4.74%)
Breaking that down into...
1st Rd/Group play:
FW/Ov: 45 (29.20%)
FW/Un: 42 (27.30%)
D/Ov: 10 (6.50%)
D/Un: 35 (22.70%)
UW/Ov: 15 (9.70%)
UW/Un: 7 (4.50%)
2nd Round onwards:
FW/Ov: 16 (28.07%)
FW/Un: 14 (24.56%)
D/Ov: 2 (3.51%)
D/Un: 15 (26.32%)
UW/Ov: 7 (12.29%)
UW/Un: 3 (5.26%)
African Teams:
Win: 8 (19.51%)
Draw: 15 (36.56%)
Loss: 18 (43.90%)
The win/draw hedge at 56.07% certainly has plenty of appeal; given that the African sides would have been underdogs for the vast majority of these encounters.
Broken down into 86/90 results and 94/98:
(Have done this due to the increased size of the competition/more qualifying sports to CAF)
86/90:
Win: 3 (20%)
Draw: 7 (46.70%)
Loss: 5 (33.30%)
Over: 4
Under: 10
90/94:
Win: 5 (19.51%)
Draw: 8 (30.77%)
Loss: 13 (50%)
Over: 16
Under: 10
African sides to make 2nd rd since '86:
86: Morocco (L 1-0 v W Germany 2nd rd)
90: Cameroon (W 2-1 v Colombia, D 1-1 v England (lost on pens))
94: Nigeria* (D 1-1 v Italy (lost on pens))
98: Nigeria (L 4-1 v Denmark)
* = won group
